WEEKEND

It's weekend, go to a Nest somewhere & enjoy, forget the Markets & if you are interested in paintings, you can visit rajanpanseart.wordpress.com. I will post about the trend for next week sometime on Sunday till then ........... ENJOY

                                                                           CHEERS !!!

SOUTHWARD JOURNEY CONTINUES

Turbulence doesn't seem to die down any time soon for the Indian stock markets which are being slaughtered session after session due to feeble corporate earnings announcement and fragile macroeconomic backdrop. The last trading day of this month too remained no exception as the frontline indices passed through an extremely unstable day though they managed few brief stints into positive territory only to succumb to unrelenting profit booking by investors. Indian benchmarks snapped the first day of a new F&O series on a disappointing note as jittery investors seemed helpless amid an increasingly vulnerable domestic setup. On one hand spiraling international crude oil prices have become the headache of policymakers while on the other worries over global economic recovery loom large given the fact that world's biggest economy continues to grow at a tepid pace. Market participants also resorted to broad based position squaring in Rate sensitive counters like Realty and Bankex as they felt that RBI will now be forced to adopt more aggressive stance in its annual monetary policy review meet on May 3rd. Leads from the Asian and European counterparts remained highly unsupportive for the domestic indices while decline in international crude oil prices too failed to enthuse the local sentiments. The NSE's 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, drifted by well over half a percent point and shut shop below the crucial 5,750 support level while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, Sensex took another hundred and fifty points blow to settle below the psychological 19,150 mark. The broader markets too failed miserably by the end of trade as they underperformed benchmarks by quite a margin. The midcap index plunged 1.03% while the smallcap index closed with 1.57% losses. On the sectoral front, Capital Goods index did the maximum damage as it shaved off 2.72% after majors like L&T and Crompton Greaves took nasty cuts of 3.87% and 9.94% respectively. The high beta Realty pocket too got pummeled by investors as it lost 2.66% after majors like DLF and HDIL got butchered by 2.37% and 7.89% respectively. On the result front, stocks like Bata India, Manappuram General Finance and Bharat Electronics were commended by the investors in the session while shares of companies like HDIL and TVS Motors and UCO Bank got punished badly. Among individual gainers, RIL garnered around a percent on the buzz that Reliance group is in talks to purchase stake held by Bharti Enterprises in an insurance JV with AXA Group.

On the global front, majority of Asian equity indices settled in the red zone on the back of weaker than expected economic growth data from the US which weighed down the sentiments. However, the Chinese benchmark managed to buck the somber trend and surged around a percent as a report indicated that manufacturing growth sustained its expansion this month even as the government raised interest rates and let the yuan strengthen at a faster pace, thereby easing worries that the  policy tightening measures have slowed the economy. The European equities are trading in the negative terrain as France's CAC fell 0.40%, Britain's FTSE 100 eased 0.03% and Germany's DAX dropped 0.10%. On the other hand, the screen trading for US index futures indicated that the Dow could open on a flat note on Monday.

Earlier on Dalal Street, the benchmark got off to a dull start as leads from the initial moments remained somber because the Asian equities traded mixed on the back of weaker than expected economic growth data from the US. The frontline indices tried hard to keep their head above the water in the morning session but selling emerged on every attempt to move above the neutral line as continuous disappointing result announcements by major companies hit sentiments. The indices nosedived in late hours of trade as they even tested the psychological 5,700 and 19,000 levels but a strong short covering rally in the dying moments prevented the markets from drifting below those psychological levels. The bourses eventually snapped another session on a gloomy note and extended the declining streak for the fifth consecutive session. Markets registered lower volumes of over Rs 1.16 lakh crore on the first day of a new F&O series. The turnover for NSE F&O segment remained on the lower side compared to Thursday at over 1 lakh crore. Market breadth remained abysmal as there were 940 shares on the gaining side against 1960 shares on the losing side while 98 shares remained unchanged.

Finally, the BSE Sensex plunged by 156.06 points or 0.81% to settle at 19,135.96 while the S&P CNX Nifty lost 35.95 points or 0.62% to end at 5,749.50.

The BSE Sensex touched a high and a low of 19,356.50 and 19,015.05 respectively. The BSE Mid-cap and Small-cap index declined by 1.03% and 1.57% respectively. 

Hindustan Unilever up 2.24%, Maruti Suzuki up 1.27%, RIL up 0.83%, Hero Honda up 0.80% and Wipro up 0.79% were the major gainers on the Sensex.

On the flip side, L&T down 3.87%, Jindal Steel down 3.57%, ONGC down 2.79%, Jaiprakash Associate down 2.57% and DLF down 2.37% were the major losers on the index.

Natural rubber prices continue to remain strong on a tight demand-supply equation and rally in crude oil prices. Earlier expectations of correction in 2011 have proved incorrect as the supply side is not likely to respond much despite strong prices seen throughout the last one year or so owing to whether related problems and aging of trees in key producers.

Off late, the traction seen in rubber prices has come from a number of factors including the fact that increase in rubber production in current year is now likely to be less than what was earlier anticipated. Thailand, the world's largest exporter, produces around 3 million tonne per year, and accounts for 40% of world production, followed by Indonesia and Malaysia. However, floods in some parts of the Thailand have resulted in substantial downward revision in production estimates for 2011 there.

According to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), global natural rubber production for 2011 may come in at 10.025 million tonne, lower than an earlier forecast of 10.060 million tonne due to output revisions in member countries. Though the revised figure is above the production level seen in 2010 at 9.473, the increase will be insufficient to help boost the drained stocks and cope with a surging demand.

Global rubber consumption (including synthetic varieties) on the other hand remains strong and reached 24.4 million tonne in 2010, 14.8% higher than in 2009. This reflects a strong recovery in the demand from key industries, mainly by the tyre producers amidst a rally in auto sales in China and India. With strong growth outlook for India and China for 2011, demand for rubber is likely to remain strong as well and ANRPC estimates that it may see traction of over 8% over the calendar year 2011.

Further, the rising crude prices which have led to a significant increase in the cost of synthetic rubber, substitute of natural rubber, have also caused some upward pressure on natural rubber prices. If the crude prices continue to rule at current levels, synthetic rubber prices are likely to see further uptic, thereby leaving little downside for the natural rubber prices until the production of the natural variety shown a significant increase. This however is only likely to happen in 2012, when some new rubber trees start yielding the crucial raw material. 

FMCG up 0.88%, Health Care (HC) up 0.61% and OIL&GAS up 0.02% were only gainers in the BSE sectoral space. Capital Goods (CG) down 2.72%, Realty down 2.66%, Bankex down 1.76%, Consumer Durables down (CD) 1.30% and Metal down 1.21% were major losers in the BSE sectoral space.

The S&P CNX Nifty touched a high and a low of 5,804.30 and 5,706.05 respectively.

The top gainers on the Nifty were Sun Pharma up 3.23%, Ambuja Cement up 3.21%, Hindustan Unilever up 2.35%, HCL Tech up 2.09% and Cairn up 1.64%.

The top losers on the index were L&T down 3.92%, ONGC down 3.54, Axis Bank down 3.50%, JP Associate down 2.89% and Kotak Bank down 2.87%.

The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has initiated a review of interconnection usage charges (IUC) amidst proposals of deep cuts in these charges that while lower the cost of calls for the consumers but will also impact the profitability of major players significantly. It will at the same time benefit newer players.

The regulator has asked the industry regarding what the new IUC regime should be for the coming three years. It has proposed that the ICU charges could be further brought down and has asked for Industry's views on the same. Another issue raised by the regulator is whether the termination fee should be a part of the capex and if the depreciation should be at 10% on straight line method or not.

The most important issue here is ICU, as it has substantial impact on companies' revenues. The ICU charges refer to the fee that mobile services operators pay to one another for using their networks for originating, carrying and terminating calls. At present, the ICU charges are pegged at a ceiling rate of 20 paise a minute as termination fees and 65 paise a minute for carrying the STD calls. ICU charges typically constitute 75% of the total cost of a mobile call made from one operator to another. 

If the ICU is brought down, it will benefit new operators as they have relatively very small network compared to the incumbent once. Since, new players will be paying much larger money to incumbent players that what they would be getting, owing to their smaller network and lesser number of subscribers, any reduction in ICU will obviously help them on a net-net basis. On the other hand, the move will have a negative impact on industry leaders who will partly lose the edge they have against new players in terms of their huge network and large subscriber numbers.

The telecom regulator feels that this could be a viable way to ensure level playing field for new operators. However, given that tariffs are already at very low levels in the 2G space and operators' margins are already under severe pressure, any substantial decline in ICU form current level will impact the industry badly. With the incumbents and newer operators already at opposite end over a number of issues, the latest move by the regulator will further divide the industry.

European markets were trading in mix note. France's CAC 40 declined by 0.14%, Germany's DAX gained 0.22% and Britain's FTSE 100 was trading higher by 0.03%.

Most of the Asian equity indices finished the trade in the negative terrain on the last trading day of the week as weak economic data from the United States for the first quarter weighed down investors' sentiments. South Korean benchmark - Seoul Composite - finished the day's trade with a cut of more than 0.70 percent on Friday, triggered by profit-booking after hitting record highs earlier in the week and sharp falls in technology issues such as Samsung Electronics too dampened the sentiments in the region. While, Japanese markets remain shut on Friday and will reopen on Monday before closing again from Tuesday to Thursday.

MARKETS HIT FRESH INTRA DAY LOW

With investors bracing for a rate increase when the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) releases policy on Tuesday, local bourses after getting cautious start have turned lower. The RBI is seen raising rates by a quarter percentage point and is widely expected to raise rates by a total of 75 basis points for the rest of 2011.Weak Asian stocks coupled with data showing sustained selling by foreign institutional has bought in choppiness into the markets, thereby marking sluggish start of the new Futures & Options (F&O) series. As Rising at a slower-than-expected pace, US real GDP grew 1.8 percent in the first quarter. Weather disruptions, higher food and energy prices and a sizeable decline in government outlays weighed on economic growth. On the global front, despite overnight extended gains of US markets on some good earnings number, Asian Indices have succumbed to profit booking, barring Shanghai Composite which is up marginally by 0.11%.Meanwhile, US future indices are trading mixed on the screen trade. Back Home, the losses of the equity markets have been capped by rise in Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL), the stock rose 0.43% to Rs. 978 on bargain hunting, halting a four-day fall. The company said recently that it is drawing up a plan to raise gas production from its D6 deepwater block in the Krishna Godavari basin in the KG basin, off India's east coast.

Further, though the selling in the stocks from Capital Goods, Consumer Durables and Bankex have dragged the market lower, the stocks belonging to Healthcare, Fast Moving Consumer Goods, Oil & Gas counters are putting forth a tough fight for keeping the market momentum on the positive side. The benchmark 30 share Index-- Sensex--on BSE is trading near its intra- day low, while 50 scrip Index--Nifty--on NSE is trading below its physiological level of 5800 mark. Meanwhile, the broader indices after trading flat have surrendered to the selling pressure and have edged lower. The overall market breadth on BSE is in the favour of declines which have outperformed advances in the ratio of 1158:1061, while, 86 shares remained unchanged.

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 19,247.00, down by 45.02 points or 0.23%. The index has touched a high and low of 19,356.50 and 19,212.63 respectively.   There were 15 stocks advancing against 15 declines on the index.

The broader indices were trading in red too; the BSE Mid cap index declined by 0.08% while, Small cap index was down by 0.33%.

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were, HC up by 0.97%, FMCG up by 0.91%, Oil and Gas up by 0.55% and PSU  up by 0.07%. While CG down by 1.47%, CD down by 0.85%, Bankex down by 0.76%, Metal down by 0.58% and Auto down by 0.42% were the top losers on the index.

The top gainers on the Sensex were HUL up by 1.81%, JP Associates up by 0.68%, RCom up by 0.60%, Reliance Industries (RIL) up by 0.59% and Bajaj Auto was up by 0.48%.

On the flip side, Hero Honda down by 1.83%, L&T down by 1.68%, HDFC Bank down by 1.59%, Hindalco Industries down by 1.53% and M&M down by 1.38% were the top losers on the index.

Meanwhile, the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has initiated a review of interconnection usage charges (IUC) amidst proposals of deep cuts in these charges that while lower the cost of calls for the consumers but will also impact the profitability of major players significantly. It will at the same time benefit newer players.

The regulator has asked the industry regarding what the new IUC regime should be for the coming three years. It has proposed that the ICU charges could be further brought down and has asked for Industry's views on the same. Another issue raised by the regulator is whether the termination fee should be a part of the capex and if the depreciation should be at 10% on straight line method or not.

The most important issue here is ICU, as it has substantial impact on companies' revenues. The ICU charges refer to the fee that mobile services operators pay to one another for using their networks for originating, carrying and terminating calls. At present, the ICU charges are pegged at a ceiling rate of 20 paise a minute as termination fees and 65 paise a minute for carrying the STD calls. ICU charges typically constitute 75% of the total cost of a mobile call made from one operator to another. 

If the ICU is brought down, it will benefit new operators as they have relatively very small network compared to the incumbent once. Since, new players will be paying much larger money to incumbent players that what they would be getting, owing to their smaller network and lesser number of subscribers, any reduction in ICU will obviously help them on a net-net basis. On the other hand, the move will have a negative impact on industry leaders who will partly lose the edge they have against new players in terms of their huge network and large subscriber numbers.

The telecom regulator feels that this could be a viable way to ensure level playing field for new operators. However, given that tariffs are already at very low levels in the 2G space and operators' margins are already under severe pressure, any substantial decline in ICU form current level will impact the industry badly. With the incumbents and newer operators already at opposite end over a number of issues, the latest move by the regulator will further divide the industry.

The S&P CNX Nifty is currently trading at 5,769.30, lower by 16.15 points or 0.28%. The index has touched a high and low of 5,764.50 and 5,769.30 respectively.  There were 27 stocks advancing against 23 declines while one stock remained unchanged on the index.

The top gainers of the Nifty were Ambuja Cement up by 3.64%, Sun Pharma up by 2.59%, Ranbaxy up by 1.79%, HUL up by 1.70% and RPower up by 1.13%.

Hero Honda down by 1.91%, Reliance Capital was down by 1.67%, Axis Bank down by 1.66%, IDFC down by 1.64% and Hindalco down by 1.62% were the major losers on the index.

Most of the Asian counterparts were trading in the red; Hang Seng declined 0.52%, Jakarta Composite slid 0.29%, KLSE Composite decreased 0.14%, Straits Times shed 0.26%, Seoul Composite plunged 1.08% and Taiwan Weighted dropped 0.99%.

On the flip side, Shanghai Composite was holding up with the gains of 0.11%

MARKETS SHOW WEAKNESS

With investors bracing for a rate increase when the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) releases policy on Tuesday, local bourses after getting cautious start have turned lower. The RBI is seen raising rates by a quarter percentage point and is widely expected to raise rates by a total of 75 basis points for the rest of 2011.Weak Asian stocks coupled with data showing sustained selling by foreign institutional has bought in choppiness into the markets, thereby marking sluggish start of the new Futures & Options (F&O) series. As Rising at a slower-than-expected pace, US real GDP grew 1.8 percent in the first quarter. Weather disruptions, higher food and energy prices and a sizeable decline in government outlays weighed on economic growth. On the global front, despite overnight extended gains of US markets on some good earnings number, Asian Indices have succumbed to profit booking, barring Shanghai Composite which is up marginally by 0.11%.Meanwhile, US future indices are trading mixed on the screen trade. Back Home, the losses of the equity markets have been capped by rise in Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL), the stock rose 0.43% to Rs. 978 on bargain hunting, halting a four-day fall. The company said recently that it is drawing up a plan to raise gas production from its D6 deepwater block in the Krishna Godavari basin in the KG basin, off India's east coast.

Further, though the selling in the stocks from Capital Goods, Consumer Durables and Bankex have dragged the market lower, the stocks belonging to Healthcare, Fast Moving Consumer Goods, Oil & Gas counters are putting forth a tough fight for keeping the market momentum on the positive side. The benchmark 30 share Index-- Sensex--on BSE is trading near its intra- day low, while 50 scrip Index--Nifty--on NSE is trading below its physiological level of 5800 mark. Meanwhile, the broader indices after trading flat have surrendered to the selling pressure and have edged lower. The overall market breadth on BSE is in the favour of declines which have outperformed advances in the ratio of 1158:1061, while, 86 shares remained unchanged.

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 19,247.00, down by 45.02 points or 0.23%. The index has touched a high and low of 19,356.50 and 19,212.63 respectively.   There were 15 stocks advancing against 15 declines on the index.

The broader indices were trading in red too; the BSE Mid cap index declined by 0.08% while, Small cap index was down by 0.33%.

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were, HC up by 0.97%, FMCG up by 0.91%, Oil and Gas up by 0.55% and PSU  up by 0.07%. While CG down by 1.47%, CD down by 0.85%, Bankex down by 0.76%, Metal down by 0.58% and Auto down by 0.42% were the top losers on the index.

The top gainers on the Sensex were HUL up by 1.81%, JP Associates up by 0.68%, RCom up by 0.60%, Reliance Industries (RIL) up by 0.59% and Bajaj Auto was up by 0.48%.

On the flip side, Hero Honda down by 1.83%, L&T down by 1.68%, HDFC Bank down by 1.59%, Hindalco Industries down by 1.53% and M&M down by 1.38% were the top losers on the index.

Meanwhile, the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has initiated a review of interconnection usage charges (IUC) amidst proposals of deep cuts in these charges that while lower the cost of calls for the consumers but will also impact the profitability of major players significantly. It will at the same time benefit newer players.

The regulator has asked the industry regarding what the new IUC regime should be for the coming three years. It has proposed that the ICU charges could be further brought down and has asked for Industry's views on the same. Another issue raised by the regulator is whether the termination fee should be a part of the capex and if the depreciation should be at 10% on straight line method or not.

The most important issue here is ICU, as it has substantial impact on companies' revenues. The ICU charges refer to the fee that mobile services operators pay to one another for using their networks for originating, carrying and terminating calls. At present, the ICU charges are pegged at a ceiling rate of 20 paise a minute as termination fees and 65 paise a minute for carrying the STD calls. ICU charges typically constitute 75% of the total cost of a mobile call made from one operator to another. 

If the ICU is brought down, it will benefit new operators as they have relatively very small network compared to the incumbent once. Since, new players will be paying much larger money to incumbent players that what they would be getting, owing to their smaller network and lesser number of subscribers, any reduction in ICU will obviously help them on a net-net basis. On the other hand, the move will have a negative impact on industry leaders who will partly lose the edge they have against new players in terms of their huge network and large subscriber numbers.

The telecom regulator feels that this could be a viable way to ensure level playing field for new operators. However, given that tariffs are already at very low levels in the 2G space and operators' margins are already under severe pressure, any substantial decline in ICU form current level will impact the industry badly. With the incumbents and newer operators already at opposite end over a number of issues, the latest move by the regulator will further divide the industry.

The S&P CNX Nifty is currently trading at 5,769.30, lower by 16.15 points or 0.28%. The index has touched a high and low of 5,764.50 and 5,769.30 respectively.  There were 27 stocks advancing against 23 declines while one stock remained unchanged on the index.

The top gainers of the Nifty were Ambuja Cement up by 3.64%, Sun Pharma up by 2.59%, Ranbaxy up by 1.79%, HUL up by 1.70% and RPower up by 1.13%.

Hero Honda down by 1.91%, Reliance Capital was down by 1.67%, Axis Bank down by 1.66%, IDFC down by 1.64% and Hindalco down by 1.62% were the major losers on the index.

Most of the Asian counterparts were trading in the red; Hang Seng declined 0.52%, Jakarta Composite slid 0.29%, KLSE Composite decreased 0.14%, Straits Times shed 0.26%, Seoul Composite plunged 1.08% and Taiwan Weighted dropped 0.99%.

On the flip side, Shanghai Composite was holding up with the gains of 0.11%

TREND FOR 29th APRIL

No great cues for the Market to hold or to move forward & the crude continues to play spoil sport & all the technical parameters are showing sell sign, under the circumstances the NIFTY may move up to 5827 - 5944 & on the downside it may slip to 5763 - 5650, so preferably stay away from the markets. Compulsive traders can take long positions in MANGLMCEM for a target of 130, MAX for a target of 172, MUNDRAPORT for a target of 158, OPTOCIRCUI for a target of 305, GSFC for a target of 391, PVR for a target of 118.

                                                             CHEERS !!!

A PATHETIC SESSION

It turned out to be another pathetic trading session for the Indian equity indices which got pounded by around a percentage point on the settlement day of April series Futures and Options contracts. The benchmarks extended the three day declining streak for the fourth consecutive session as the selling pressure gathered greater momentum after government released the disappointing food inflation numbers which stayed absolutely flat at 8.76% on annual basis during week-ended April 16 compared with 8.74% recorded in the previous week. With the downward trend of food inflation coming to a halt in recent weeks, and core inflation showing a considerable uptic in the months of February and March 2010, inflation continues to remain at highly uncomfortable levels, making the growth-inflation mix increasingly complex and the job of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) increasingly difficult. Market participants resorted to broad based position squaring as they felt that RBI will now be forced to adopt more aggressive stance in its annual monetary policy review meet on May 3rd. The large cut suffered by domestic bourses came in the face of an optimistic European and Asian markets which largely traded on a positive note. Back home, the NSE's 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, shut shop with around a percent cut, below the crucial 5,800 support level while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, Sensex took a one hundred and fifty points blow to settle below the psychological 19,300 mark. By the end of trade, the broader markets caught up with the weakness that was evident in larger peers and slipped deeper into the red terrain. The midcap index plunged 0.97% while the smallcap index closed with 0.48% losses. On the sectoral front, the real estate stocks did the maximum damage as the high beta BSE's Realty index shaved off over 3% after majors like Unitech, DLF and HDIL took nasty cuts of 7.54%, 2.71% and 1.63% respectively. The Metal pocket too got pummeled by investors as it lost 1.20% after majors like SAIL and JSW Steel slipped by 3.35% and 3.12% respectively. On the result front, stocks like ICICI Bank, LIC Housing Finance, Orient Paper & Industries, Mangalam Cement were commended by the investors in the session while shares of companies like Vijaya Bank and Bank of Baroda, JSW Energy and Biocon got punished badly.

On the global front, majority of Asian equity indices settled in the green zone with Japanese benchmark grabbing the top gainer's position after inching higher by over one and half a percent point supported by better than expected domestic earnings. The European equities are trading in the green zone as France's CAC advanced 0.62%, Britain's FTSE 100 traded flat and Germany's DAX climbed 0.38%. On the other hand, the screen trading for US index futures indicated that the Dow could open on a flat note.

On the F&O front, for the April series the Nifty and Sensex shaved off around 0.8% each while in the broader market, Small cap index rocketed 8% and CNX midcap index soared 2.9%. Among sectoral movers, IT index remained the top laggard by plummeting 5.8% followed by Realty which slipped 4.3% while the metal counter was down 1.5%. On the other hand the Auto and FMCG indices grabbed the top gainers position after garnering 3.4% points followed by the Oil and Gas index which rose by 2.2%. Among Individual laggards, DLF was down 14.5%, Infosys was down 9.5%, RCom down 7.4%, RIL down 7.32%, Wipro down 6.7% and NTPC down 5.2%. On the flipside, Sesa Goa, M&M and ONGC skyrocketed by nearly 10% followed by Bharti up 8.2%, HCL Tech up 7%, Hero Honda up 6.4%, ITC up 5.4% and Sterlite up 5%. From the expiry perspective the rollovers seen today were in line with March month expiry with market wide rollover of over 65% and Nifty rollovers of over 61%. Huge rollovers were also witnessed in heavyweights like ONGC (71%), Unitech (78%), SAIL (75%) and Suzlon (87.44%). On expected lines, markets registered strong volumes of over Rs 2.38 lakh crore on the April series F&O settlement day. The turnover for NSE F&O segment remained on the higher side compared to Wednesday at over 2.19 lakh crore. Market breadth remained negative as there were 1097 shares on the gaining side against 1793 shares on the losing side while 101 shares remained unchanged.

Finally, the BSE Sensex plunged by 156.67 points or 0.81% to settle at 19,292.02 while the S&P CNX Nifty lost 48.45 points or 0.83% to end at 5,785.45.

The BSE Sensex touched a high and a low of 19,542.05 and 19,265.92 respectively. The BSE Mid-cap and Small-cap index declined by 0.97% and 0.48% respectively. 

ONGC up 1.99%, ICICI Bank up 0.92%, Bharti Airtel up 0.56%, Bajaj Auto up 0.26% and Sterlite Industries up 0.14% were the major gainers on the Sensex.

On the flip side, Reliance Communication down 5.13%, Cipla down 2.77%, DLF down 2.71%, Hero Honda down 2.62% and Jindal Steel down 2.17% were the major losers on the index.

Oil marketing companies (OMCs) will hike petrol prices by around Rs 3 per litre by middle of the next month even as the government is also contemplating hiking the diesel prices by around Rs 2 per litre. While petrol prices are, at least in theory, free to be determined by retailers, diesel prices continue to be regulated by the government.

Petrol prices were revised six times following the deregulation in June last year with the last hike coming in January 2011. After that the OMCs were expecting that there could be some reduction in petroleum sector duties in FY12 budget which will pre-empt the need for hiking fuel prices. However, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee left the petroleum sector duties unchanged in Budget. Then came the state assembly elections and OMCs had to hold on to petrol prices even as the global crude prices surged beyond $120 a barrel. Now however as the state assembly elections are nearing an end, OMCs are set to hike petrol prices.

The move to hike diesel prices is also becoming more likely on account of the fact that the OMCs will be losing record amount of money if retail prices are not hiked. The intensity of crisis will be no less than what happened in first half of 2008 when crude oil touched a high of $147 a barrel. However, with the kind of hikes the government is prepared to make, like Rs 3 and Rs 2 per litre respectively in petrol and diesel, it would not help solve the problem much.

The companies are currently losing a record Rs 18 on every litre of diesel and Rs 7 on petrol. The under-recovery on kerosene is no less at Rs 28 per litre while each cylinder of domestic LPG involves a revenue loss of Rs 315. At the current rate, OMCs will lose Rs 177,562 crore in revenues over the financial year. Clearly by hiking prices by Rs 2-3, the surging under-recover bill is unlikely to be brought down significantly.

The finance ministry in this wake will have to bear substantially high fuel subsidy than last year. The oil ministry has already cleared that up-stream companies will not bear more than 33% of the under-recoveries and OMCs would not be in a position to absorb more than 5-10% of the under-recoveries. Therefore, a large chunk of the subsidy burden will fall on finance ministry only. What is worse is that unlike 2008, government fiscal deficit scenario is not very good and surge in under-recoveries will have a high impact on overall government finances as well even with a partial subsidy sharing by it. 

Realty down 3.03%, Metal down 1.20%, IT down 1.12%, Capital Goods (CG) down 1.06% and TECk down 0.93% were major losers in the BSE sectoral space. There were no gainers in the BSE sectoral space.

The S&P CNX Nifty touched a high and a low of 5,856.40 and 5,776.95 respectively.

The top gainers on the Nifty were Sun Pharma up 1.81%, ONGC up 1.53%, BPCL up 0.64%, ICICI Bank up 0.48% and Sterlite Industries up 0.38%.

The top losers on the index were Reliance Communication down 5.04%, Kotak Bank down 3.59, SAIL down 3.53%, Ranbaxy down 3.52% and Hero Honda down 3.07%.

India's food inflation remained nearly flat during the week ended April 16, hinting that the traditional decline which is seen in food prices following the Kharif harvest was over. Food inflation had shown considerable decline in February and March after remaining rigid in previous few months despite a very strong Kharif crop last season.

According to the data released by the commerce and industry ministry on Thursday, the food price index rose at 8.76% during the 12 months ending April 16, almost flat compared with a corresponding figure of 8.74% a week ago. On a weekly basis, however, the index was nearly down by 0.2% to 182.6 compared with a figure of 182.9 for the previous week.

The index for non-food articles group also declined by 0.4% to 192.5 from 193.2 for the previous week. However, the index for minerals group rose by 3.0% to 267.0 from 259.2, pushing up the broader primary articles index, which has a weight of 20.12% in the overall wholesale prices index, by 0.1% to 190.9 from 190.8 for the previous week. The annual rate of inflation, calculated on point to point basis, for this group stood at 12.08% for the week under review as compared to 11.96% for the previous week. 

The index for fuel and power group, which has a weight of 14.91% in the WPI, increased by 0.6% to 160.3 from 159.4 for the previous week due to higher prices of lubricants (14%), light diesel oil and furnace oil (3% each) and naphtha (2%). The annual rate of inflation for this group rose to 13.53% for the week under review as compared to 13.05% for the previous week. In an absolute sense, the fuel group inflation continues to remain at elevated levels and in case the government decides to pass on part of the increase in global crude oil prices through hike in administered prices of retail fuels, it will further boost the same.

With the downward trend of food inflation coming to a halt in recent weeks, and core inflation showing a considerable up tic in the months of February and March 2010, it is becoming quite clear that headline inflation may not come down sharply any time soon. What this means in turn is that the central bank will in all likelihood continue to tighten its monetary policy stance throughout the 2011.

European markets were trading in green. France's CAC 40 was up by 0.44%, Germany's DAX gained 0.42% and Britain's FTSE 100 was trading higher by 0.01%.

Most of the Asian indices finished in the positive terrain on Thursday after the Federal Reserve renewed its pledge to stimulate US economic growth with low interest rates and as companies posted higher earnings. Japanese Nikkei closed with a gain of more than one and half a percent to its highest level since last month quake, supported by better-than-expected domestic earnings. Moreover, Seoul shares ended on a flat note, with Hyundai Motor rallying more than 7 percent to a record closing high after its decent results announcement, but fall in technology stocks like Samsung Electronics weighed on the investors' sentiments.

NEGATIVE BIAS

The benchmark indices continue to trade choppy with negative bias in late afternoon session as traders rolled over positions in the futures & options (F&O) segment ahead of the expiry of the near-month April 2011 contracts. Meanwhile, the other Asian markets settled in mixed note, while US index futures and European markets were also trading in green. Back home, Realty, Metal, IT down, FMCG down and TECk counters were witnessing selling pressure while, Auto, Consumer Durables (CD) and Healthcare stocks showing some buying action. The market breadth on the BSE was negative; the losers thrashed the gainers in a ratio 1665:1109 and 114 shares were unchanged. The broader markets were also trading slightly in negative range; the BSE Mid cap index and Small cap index lost 0.44% and 0.18% respectively. 

The BSE Sensex shed 95.63 points or 0.49% at 19,353.06. The index has touched a high of 19,542.05 and a low of 19,298.07 respectively.

The BSE Mid cap index and Small cap index lost 0.44% and 0.18% respectively. 

On the BSE sectoral front, Auto up 0.35%, CD up 0.12% and Healthcare (HC) up 0.11% were the only gainers.

On the other hand, Realty down 2.38%, Metal down 0.77%, IT down 0.74%, FMCG down 0.72% and TECk down 0.66% were the major losers in the BSE sectoral space.

The top gainers on the Sensex were ONGC up 1.65%, ICICI Bank up 0.78%, Bajaj Auto up 0.77%, Bharti Airtel up 0.31% and Maruti Suzuki  up 0.27%.

On the flip side, RCom down 4.13%, DLF down 2.11%, Cipla down 1.65%, HDFC down 1.39% and BHEL down 1.38% were the major losers on the index.

A Committee of Secretaries (CoS) set up by the government of India which is looking into the issue of how to price natural resources including spectrum, has said in a draft report that telecom spectrum was a scarce natural resource and it must be auctioned in order to discover its true market price.

The mandate of the committee was to develop a framework for transparent and just pricing of natural resources. It has already prepared a draft report and a final report is likely to be submitted to the Cabinet soon. The committee was set up following the controversy of government allocating the 2G spectrum in 2008 at throwaway prices. It will however look at broader contour of all the natural resources including oil and gas and other minerals.

In its recommendations regarding the telecom spectrum, the committee has also agreed with the view of ministry of communications regarding delinking spectrum from license. The committee feels that while the license was a contract allowing a particular entity to conduct a particular business, spectrum was a natural resource and must be provided separately against a market based price. By providing spectrum with license, the government might be under-pricing the spectrum.

Finally, the committee is also in favour of allowing spectrum trading by telecom operators as has been argued by the telecom regulatory authority of India (TRAI). The department of telecommunications (DoT) is in the process of finalizing regulations for spectrum trading. The committee feels that by allowing trading, most efficient use of the resources can be achieved while at the same time ensuring that government gets a reasonable price in auction of spectrum.

The 2G license controversy has forced the government to bring a streamline policy for allocating natural resources. In fact many political analysts feel that not just telecom spectrum but allocation of all other natural resources has been rather opaque in India for long and it was time for some rule based play to be implemented. This is the reason that the CoS has been given a wider mandate to recommend efficient and transparent ways for allocating all natural resources and not just the spectrum.

The S&P CNX Nifty declined 30.10 points or 0.52% at 5803.80. The index has touched a high and a low of 5856.40 and 5786.30, respectively.

The top gainers of the Nifty were ONGC up 1.77%, Sun Pharma up 1.37%, ICICI Bank up 0.98%, Bajaj Auto up 0.84% and Ambuja Cements up 0.79%.

On the flip side, RCom down 4.47%, SAIL down 3.11%, DLF down 2.32%, Kotak Bank down 2.18% and Cipla down 2.08% were the major losers on the index.

The other Asian markets settled in mixed note. Jakarta Composite gained 0.11%, KLSE Composite rose 0.35%, Nikkei 225 surged 1.63% and Seoul Composite rose 0.07%; while Shanghai Composite dropped 1.29%, Taiwan Weighted shed 0.09%, Hang Seng declined 0.37%, Straits Times soared 0.06%.

The European markets were on a positive note .CAC 40 added 0.71%, DAX gained 0.49% and FTSE 100 was up by 0.06%.

TIGHT RANGE

Local stock indices continue to oscillate in a tight range, marginally below the neutral line in the early noon session, amid a slew of corporate earnings announcement raising volatility ahead of the F&O expiry. The indices are broadly showing a sideways kind of movement as investors seem unwilling to go for broad based kind of buying and are indulging only in stock specific activities. Supportive lead from the European counterparts which got off to a positive opening,  failed to enthuse the local sentiments while jump in international crude oil prices too does not seem to have gone down well with investors. Real Estate stocks have done the maximum damage so far as the BSE's Realty index has already shaved off over 2 percent, after majors like DLF and Unitech witnessed nasty cuts of 2.49% and 7.42% respectively. Index heavyweight RIL too slipped by around half a percent along with ADA group stocks, weighing down the frontline indices. However, the downside remained capped as bellwether ONGC surged by around a percent. Moreover, fertilizer stocks like RCF, Coromandel Intl, NFL, GSFC rallied after reports that cabinet has approved revision in nutrient based subsidy on fertilizers. Reports suggested that government is likely to spend Rs 33,500 crore for nutrient based subsidy and may revise FY12 subsidy for phosphatic and potassic fertilizers while buying was also witnessed in Consumer Durables and Auto majors like Titan, Videocon, Exide.

Meanwhile, the broader markets too are trading lacking any enthusiasm as the midcap index has eased 0.14% while the smallcap index traded flat. The market breadth on the BSE was in favour of declines in the ratio of 1135:1428 while 125 scrips remained unchanged.

The BSE Sensex fell by 48.68 points or 0.25% at 19,400.01. The index touched a high and a low of 19,542.05 and 19,360.61 respectively.

The BSE Mid-cap index fell by 0.14% and Small-cap index was unchanged.

On the BSE sectoral front, CD up 0.45%, Auto up 0.34%, Healthcare up 0.28%, PSU up 0.13% and FMCG up 0.06% were the major gainers.

On the other hand, Realty down 2.37%, Metal down 0.40%, IT down 0.31%, Power down 0.30% and Teck down 0.26% were the major laggards in the space.

The top gainers on the Sensex were Bajaj Auto up 1.31%, ONGC up 1.16%, Sterlite up 0.44%, NTPC up 0.38% and ITC up 0.36%.

On the flip side R Com down 3.09%, BHEL down 1.63%, DLF down 1.62%, Jindal Steel down 1.62% and R Infra down 1.44% were the major losers on the index.

Meanwhile, a Committee of Secretaries (CoS) set up by the government of India which is looking into the issue of how to price natural resources including spectrum, has said in a draft report that telecom spectrum was a scarce natural resource and it must be auctioned in order to discover its true market price.

The mandate of the committee was to develop a framework for transparent and just pricing of natural resources. It has already prepared a draft report and a final report is likely to be submitted to the Cabinet soon. The committee was set up following the controversy of government allocating the 2G spectrum in 2008 at throwaway prices. It will however look at broader contour of all the natural resources including oil and gas and other minerals.

In its recommendations regarding the telecom spectrum, the committee has also agreed with the view of ministry of communications regarding delinking spectrum from license. The committee feels that while the license was a contract allowing a particular entity to conduct a particular business, spectrum was a natural resource and must be provided separately against a market based price. By providing spectrum with license, the government might be under-pricing the spectrum.

Finally, the committee is also in favour of allowing spectrum trading by telecom operators as has been argued by the telecom regulatory authority of India (TRAI). The department of telecommunications (DoT) is in the process of finalizing regulations for spectrum trading. The committee feels that by allowing trading, most efficient use of the resources can be achieved while at the same time ensuring that government gets a reasonable price in auction of spectrum.

The 2G license controversy has forced the government to bring a streamline policy for allocating natural resources. In fact many political analysts feel that not just telecom spectrum but allocation of all other natural resources has been rather opaque in India for long and it was time for some rule based play to be implemented. This is the reason that the CoS has been given a wider mandate to recommend efficient and transparent ways for allocating all natural resources and not just the spectrum.

The S&P CNX Nifty eased 15.15 points or 0.26% at 5,818.75. The index touched a high and low of 5,856.40 and 5,805.85, respectively.

The top gainers on the Nifty were Ambuja Cement up 1.89%, Sun Pharma up 1.34%, Bajaj Auto up 1.29%, ONGC up 1.24% and HCL Tech up 0.72%.

On the other hand, R Com down 2.90%, SAIL down 2.78%, Jindal Steel down 1.99%, Ranbaxy down 1.74% and DLF down 1.68% were the major losers on the index.

On the Asian front, Shanghai Composite was down 0.86%, Jakarta Composite was down 0.28% and Taiwan Weighted was down 0.09%. On other hand, Hang Seng was up 0.17%, KLSE Composite was up 0.19%, Nikkei 225 was up 1.63%, Strait Times was up 0.16% and Seoul Composite was up 0.07%.

The European markets have opened on a positive note as the France's CAC 40 added 0.73%, Germany's DAX gained 0.59% and Britain's FTSE 100 was up by 0.21%

MARKETS TURN CHOPPY

Local equity markets have further slipped into red as a surge in crude oil prices stoked macroeconomic worries amidst listless global cues since the regional counterparts are trading mixed at this point of time. Though the surge of the Wall Street led the benchmark indices open in positive for the second consecutive session but the markets are likely to remain choppy ahead of the derivatives expiry today. Overnight, the Wall Street soared to new highs with the technology heavy index Nasdaq rising to 10-year highs as Fed said that the interest rates will continue to remain at near zero levels thereby boosting investors sentiment. However, back home, the surge in the Index Heavyweight - ICICI Bank - ahead of it reporting its Q4 results is counterbalancing the fall of market bellwether Reliance Industries - which has plunged for fourth straight session, thereby limiting the losses of the local bourses. Meanwhile, the broader indices for the second straight session are showing immense resilience and are currently outperforming their larger peers. The 30 scrip sensitive index on Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) - Sensex - is trading below is 19500 mark while the 50 share barometer Index on National Stock Exchange (NSE) - Nifty - despite being in red is trading above its 5800 level. On the BSE Sectoral front, stocks from Consumer Durables (CD), Public Sector Undertaking (PSU), Health Care (HC), Capital Goods (CG) and Bankex counters are enticing investor's attention, while stocks from Realty, IT, TECk and Power are languishing down in bottom. The overall market breadth on BSE is in the favour of advances which are outnumbering declines in the ratio of 1081: 1051, while, 86 shares remained unchanged.

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 19,421.68, down by 27.01 points or 0.14%. The index has touched a high and low of 19,542.05 and 19,391.28 respectively. There were 10 stocks advancing against 20 declines on the index.

The broader indices were outperforming benchmarks; the BSE Mid cap and Small cap indices gained 0.20% and 0.35%, respectively.

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were, CD up by 0.61%, PSU up by 0.34%, HC up by 0.23%, CG up by 0.15% and Bankex up by 0.05%. While Realty down by 1.37%, IT down by 0.34%, TECk down by 0.18%, Power down by 0.17% and Oil & Gas down by 0.15% were the top losers on the index.

The top gainers on the Sensex were ONGC up by 1.59%, Bharti Airtel up by 0.73%, Sterlite Industries up by 0.55%, Bajaj Auto up by 0.57% and ICICI Bank up by 0.33%.

On the flip side, Jindal Steel down by 1.40%, RCom down by 1.19%, HDFC down by 1.08%, M&M down by 0.90% and Hero Honda down by 0.84% were the top losers on the index.

Meanwhile, India's apparel exports have seen significant traction in last few months as the demand from key export destinations like the US and European Union improves. In the month of March 2010, total apparel shipments stood at $1209 million, recording a growth of nearly 18% when compared with same month a year ago.

On a full year basis, apparel exports during April-March 2011 increased by 4.23% at $11.16 billion as compared to $10.71 billion in the year-ago period, showed the data released by the Apparel Export Promotion Council (AEPC) of India. Apparel exports were weak in the initial months of the fiscal however significant traction was visible since the month of November 2010, which helped the industry end the year in green, said AEPC.

Apparel exports to the US, which is the most important market for India's garment makers, increased by 12.5% in the month of February to $586.9 million against $521.7 in Feb 2010. For the same period, overall US imports of apparels witnessed an increase of 16.9% from the corresponding period of previous year and amounted to $11.7 billion. Clearly, while Indians have been improving exports to the US, they are being outpaced by some other countries like China.

India's textile industry was one of the worst hit by impact of global slowdown which saw the demand from developed countries like the US and EU going down considerably. While the overall demand scenario has improved over last one year, apparel exporters have been facing increasing competition from countries like China and Bangladesh as all key exporters try to hold on to their market share. The industry wants the government to ensure that cotton and yarn prices come down from the elevated levels so that exporters can compete in global markets on price basis.

The S&P CNX Nifty is currently trading at 5,821.95, lower by 11.95 points or 0.20%.The index has touched a high and low of 5,856.40 and 5,814.30 respectively. There were 18 stocks advancing against 32 declines on the index.

The top gainers of the Nifty were Ambuja Cement up by 2.35%, ONGC up by 1.59%, Sesa Goa up by 1.06%, Sterlite Industries up by 0.74% and HCL Tech up by 0.70%.

Cairn down by 1.80%, Jindal Steel down by 1.49%, Ranbaxy down by 1.36%, HDFC and RCom down by 1.19% were the major losers on the index.

Most of the Asian peers were trading in the green; Hang Seng gained 0.50%, Jakarta Composite inched up by 0.05%, KLSE Composite added 0.23%, Nikkei 225 surged 1.11%, Straits Times increased 0.47%

On the flip side, Shanghai Composite slid 0.08%, Taiwan Weighted was down by 0.16% and Seoul Composite shed 0.17%

TREND FOR 28th APRIL

Markets have slipped in to negative territory with intense volatility due expiry tomorrow & the Nifty may slip to 5763 while on the upside it move to 5944. Long positions can be taken in ANDHRABANK for a target of 159, BAJAJHLDING for a target of 821, GTOFFSHORE for a target of 320, POLARIS for a target of 214, ULTRACEMCO for a target of 1127.
                                                                   CHEERS !!!

SLENDER GAINS

Though the domestic equity markets have recovered from early mild setback but are still gyrating in a tight band holding up slender gains. Selective buying by funds and retail investors in stocks having strong fundamentals and a firming trend on other Asian bourses has mainly supported the trading sentiment here, however, the weakness in Wipro after software services exporter's reported weak guidance has disappointed investors leading to the weakness around the IT space. Wipro has projected muted growth for its mainstay information technology services business and said wage hikes would hurt operating margins this year. However, encouraging leads from global markets has been pushing the market's breadth on the positive end as Asian markets gained. Back home, besides IT, stocks from Bankex counter on the BSE Sectoral space too are spreading weakness. But the gains in broader indices, presently ruling up by 0.50% each have restricted local markets fall. Meanwhile, the 30 scrip barometer index Sensex, after touching a low of 19,541.16 is presently trading in green, while the widely followed benchmark index on NSE--Nifty-- is currently trading above 5800 mark. The overall market breadth on BSE was in the favour of advances which have thumped declines in the ratio of 1470:816, while 90 shares remained unchanged.

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 19,588.05, up by 42.70 points or 0.22%. The index has touched a high and low of 19,633.63and 19,541.16 respectively. There were 18 stocks advancing against 12 declines on the index.

The broader indices were outperforming benchmarks; the BSE Mid cap and Small cap indices surged 0.61% and 0.86% respectively. 

The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were, CD up by 1.03%, Auto up by 0.89%, PSU up by 0.70%, Realty up by 0.65% and FMCG was up by 0.58%. While IT and Bankex down by 0.08% each, were the losers on the index.

The top gainers on the Sensex were M&M up by 1.95% ONGC up by 1.50%, Bharti Airtel up by 1.31%, DLF up by 1.20% and Maruti Suzuki up by 1.14%.

On the flip side, Wipro down by 3.13%, Tata Power down by 0.91%, SBI down by 0.49%, BHEL down by 0.36% and HDFC Bank down by 0.36% were the top losers on the index.

Meanwhile, continuous increases in food and fuel prices could have significant impact on growth in emerging Asian economies over the next two years, says a recent report released by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The report cautions that if inflation continues to remain high, it can neutralize some of the gains made on the poverty front in recent years.

The multilateral lender cautioned that rising food prices was a major challenge for policy makers and it could shave between 40-150 basis points off the gross domestic product (GDP) in each of Asia's largest developing economies this year and next, including in India and China. However, if prices could be kept in control, the region will see a strong growth of 7.8% over the current year.

Inflation continues to remain the single biggest challenge for the region, with global commodity rally adding further fuel to already high food prices. This has sparked widespread monetary tightening in both India and China and is also set to boost fuel subsidies in these countries if crude oil prices continue to remain anywhere close to their current levels. Some of the countries, in particular China and Indonesia, have even allowed their currencies to strengthen somewhat in an attempt to dampen the cost of imported commodities.

However, a country like India does not have enough room for significant currency appreciation owing to its weaker current account balance. In this wake, the Indian government will have to try to look at supply side measures to improve the food supplies while at the same time try to cut fuel subsidies that can have very negative impact on its sovereign finances. If the country fails to tackle the surging inflation, it could push another 50 million people into poverty, according to ADB estimates. 

The Bank also urged that it was necessary that in such times countries did not ban the export of food commodities as that would only further boost the problem. "To avert this looming crisis it is important for countries to refrain from imposing export bans on food items, while strengthening social safety nets," said the ADB in a statement released on Tuesday. It recommended that efforts to stabilize food production should take center stage and greater investments in agricultural infrastructure to increase crop production and expand storage facilities should be undertaken.

The S&P CNX Nifty is currently trading at 5,876.75, higher by 8.35 points or 0.14%. The index has touched a high and low of 5,892.35 and 5,862.85 respectively.  There were 28 stocks advancing against 21 declines, while 1 stock on the index remained unchanged.

The top gainers of the Nifty were M&M up by 2.31%, ONGC up by 1.60%, Siemens up by 1.51%, DLF up by 1.28% and Hero Honda up by 1.22%.

Wipro down by 3.56%, Ambuja Cement down by 1.87 %, ACC down by 0.96 %, Tata Power down by 0.88% and PNB was down by 0.64%, were the major losers on the index.

Most of the  Asian counterparts were trading in the green; Shanghai Composite gained 0.23%, Hang Seng added 0.41%, Jakarta Composite rose 0.52%, KLSE Composite was up by 0.34%, Nikkei 225 surged 1.45%, Straits Times increased 0.50%, Seoul Composite was up 4.26 points or 0.19% to 2,210.56 and Taiwan Weighted zoomed 1.16%

On the  flip side, Seoul Composite down by 0.26% was the lone looser in the Asian pack.

TREND FOR 27th APRIL

Intense volatility was seen today may be because of expiry around the corner & though it ended up marginally lower, it is still in positive territory & the Nifty may try to move up to 5944 & on the downside it may drift down to 5854 - 5836. Long positions can be taken in ACC for a target of  1144, ESCORTS for a target of 153, SOBHA for a target of 327,SUNTV for a target of 456, WIPRO for a target of 490.

                                                               CHEERS !!!

CONSOLIDATION CONTINUES

Indian benchmarks seems to have stuck to the psychological 5,850 and 19,600 levels as they have not budged from those levels for the third straight session despite the mounting volatility because this being the April series Futures and Options expiry week while a slew of disappointing quarterly earnings announcement too added to the consolidation mood. Markets once again refused to give in to the initial selling pressure as they staged a smart pull back rally in the second half of trade taking cues from the European counterparts which traded with good gains despite somber leads from the Asian peers. Better than expected results from the Cement majors and rebound in telecom stocks resulted in sentiment turnaround as investors covered short positions not only in ACC, Ultratech Bharti Airtel and RCom but also in banking and auto heavyweights like SBI, ICICI Bank, Tata Motors and Bajaj Auto. However, the upside chances for the frontline indices remained capped as intense selling pressure was exerted on FMCG and IT majors like HUL, P&G, TCS and Wipro. Investors also continued to punish index heavyweight Reliance Industries for second straight session for below expectation earnings of Q4 and it shaved off around a percent point. The NSE's 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, settled with single digit losses, above the crucial 5,850 support level while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, or Sensex too ended with marginal losses around the psychological 19,600 mark. The broader markets failed to show any kind of fervor this Tuesday as the BSE midcap index and BSE smallcap index both fell by 0.03%. On the sectoral front, the Healthcare index, grabbed the top gainers position after climbing by 0.42% due to rally in stocks like Biocon and Dr Reddy's Lab which surged 2.13% and 1.71% respectively. On the other hand, the Consumer Durables pocket languished at the bottom of the table with 0.80% losses on the back of the 1.90% and 1.80% decline in Videocon and VIP respectively. Stocks like GVK Power & Infra and GMR Infra nosedived by 4.57% and 3.16% respectively after Apex court ruled that private developers of the airports at Delhi and Mumbai will henceforth not be allowed to charge airport development fee (ADF) from passengers. ADF of Rs 200 and Rs 1,200 for domestic and international flights respectively, was being levied on passengers embarking at Delhi while Rs 100 and Rs 600 was being charged from domestic and international passengers respectively, boarding from Mumbai by the private developers. On the result front, cements stocks like ACC and Ultratech Cement kept buzzing through the session while stocks like Aventis Pharma, Tata Teleservices, Facor Alloys too were commended by investors. While shares of companies like Sesa Goa, Indiabulls Securities and Procter & Gamble got punished badly.

On the global front, majority of Asian equity indices settled in the red zone with Japanese benchmark being the laggard with losses of over a percent point as investors' sentiment got pummeled by disappointing earnings announcement by Nintendo and Nidec. The European markets after starting on an absolutely flat note are trading with moderate gains as France's CAC was gaining 0.37%, Britain's FTSE 100 rising 0.39% and Germany's DAX was up by 0.43%. On the other hand, the screen trading for US index futures too indicated that the Dow could open with gains of around a quarter percent point.

Earlier on Dalal Street, the benchmark got off to a quiet start as investors remained cautious tracking Asian equities which witnessed heavy bouts of profit booking on the back of the mixed corporate earnings announcements on overnight Wall. The indices slipped deeper in to the red zone after the flat opening, as across the board position squaring gathered momentum in the morning trade. However, after hitting intraday low levels in the early afternoon session the markets staged a smart recovery and even went on to steal a look into the green territory. But slight profit booking in a few blue-chip stocks in the dying moments led the bourses to eventually snap the session on a flat note with a negative bias. On expected lines, markets registered strong volumes of over Rs 2.34 lakh crore on the second day of F&O expiry week. The turnover for NSE F&O segment too remained higher compared to Monday at over 2.19 lakh crore. Market breadth remained negative as there were 1286 shares on the gaining side against 1570 shares on the losing side while 121 shares remained unchanged.

Finally, the BSE Sensex declined by 38.96 points or 0.20% to settle at 19,545.35  while the S&P CNX Nifty lost 6.10 points or 0.10% to end at 5,868.40.

The BSE Sensex touched a high and a low of 19,626.13 and 19,306.92 respectively. The BSE Mid-cap and Small-cap indices declined by 0.03% each. 

Bharti Airtel up 1.65%, Hindalco Industries up 1.55%, Tata Motors up 1.50%, Reliance Communication up 1.29% and Jindal Steel up 1.10% were the major gainers on the Sensex.

On the flip side, Hindustan Unilever down 1.99%, Maruti Suzuki down 1.91%, Sterlite Industries down 1.56%, Reliance Infrastructure down 1.55% and Mahindra & Mahindra down 1.48% were the only losers on the index.

India's oil marketing companies (OMCs) have continued to subsidies prices of petrol despite the government deregulating the same in June last year. In fact under-recoveries of OMCs on petrol have increased sharply over last couple of months owing to surge in global crude prices.  

However, with the crucial assembly elections coming to an end soon, OMCs are likely to get a window for raising petrol prices, though partially. While the under-recovery on petrol is currently around Rs 7 a litre, fuel retailers may hike prices by around Rs 3 a litre. This action may come by middle of the next month by when the ongoing elections for various state assemblies would be over.

The three government controlled OMCs had last time revised petrol prices in January this year when the same were hiked by Rs 2.50 a litre, the sixth hike implemented since the fuel was deregulated in June last year. After that the companies were hoping for some reduction in duties on petroleum sector in the FY12 Budget but the same evaporated as Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee maintained a status quo on petroleum sector duties.

Then the state assembly elections came close and OMCs had to hold on to petrol prices even as the global crude prices surged beyond $120 a barrel. Now as the state assembly elections are nearing an end, OMCs are getting ready to implement a hike in petrol prices. Following that, the Union Oil and Gas minister S Jaipal Reddy is expected to raise a proposal at the Cabinet level for cutting the subsidies in other fuels by raising market prices, and possibly by cutting some duties as well.

The finance ministry will anyway have to bear the brunt of higher crude prices. Even if it does not reduce duties, it will still have to bear a much larger share of under-recoveries of the OMCs as the latter do not have the financial muscle to bear substantial losses. The oil ministry has already cleared that up-stream companies will not bear more than 33% of the under-recoveries and OMCs would not be in a position to absorb more than 10-15% of the under-recoveries. Therefore, a large chunk of the subsidy burden will fall on finance ministry only.

Healthcare (HC) up 0.42%, Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) up 0.08%, TECk up 0.06%, Metal up 0.05% and Capital Goods (CG) up 0.01% were the major gainers in the BSE sectoral space. Consumer Durables (CD) down 0.80%, Oil &Gas down 0.35%, Realty down 0.31%, IT down 0.28%, Bankex down 0.14% were major losers in the BSE sectoral space.

The S&P CNX Nifty touched a high and a low of 5,893.20 and 5,791.55 respectively.

The top gainers on the Nifty were Siemens up 3.58%, Grasim up 1.98%, Hindalco up 1.76%, Bharti Airtel up 1.74% and Dr Reddy's up 1.64%.

The top losers on the index were Maruti down 2.07%, Hindustan Unilever down 2.04%, Reliance Capital down 2.04%, Axis Bank down 1.79% and SAIL down 1.62%.

Global rating agency Fitch has said that a slowdown in China may not impact India directly in the short term but in case the trend drags down for a longer period, it will push up competition for Indian manufacturers and Chinese can flood global markets, and to some extent Indian as well, with cheaper products.

The agency said that moderation in growth in China can result in excess capacities that will negatively impact the overall demand-supply equation. "Over the longer term a slowing China would result in excess capacities across many manufacturing sectors and would change global demand-supply dynamics, especially given the country's low cost of production," Fitch said in a recent report adding that this could result in intense competition for India's manufacturing exporters.

On the positive side, the agency believe that Indian companies were perhaps better placed at handling a slowdown in either Chinese or global economy that its counterparts in China. The agency noted that while both the countries are reporting strong GDP growth and had managed the financial crisis well, the corporate sector in these economies operated in structurally very different environments. Economists believe that the bottom up approach of India can provided added resilience in case of a slowdown compared with China's top down approach.

At a macro level too India was better positioned to manage increasing risk arising out of rapid growth or changing global financial scenario. While India's growth over last couple of decades has been driven by domestic demand and structural changes at home, growth in China was mainly fuelled by exports and bank finance. However, the sheer scale of China's producers gave them significant advantage compared with Indian counterparts in most manufacturing businesses.

India had another advantage over China in terms of its superior financial sector regulation capacities. Fitch observed that India's regulatory environment has remained focused on controlling credit growth while China's growth has largely been funded by bank credit. The RBI has regulated the credit flow to the local corporate sector with prudence and caution which has helped the country's banks in managing their asset quality better during the global economic slowdown.

European markets were trading in green. France's CAC 40 was up by 0.27%, Germany's DAX gained 0.42% and Britain's FTSE 100 was trading higher by 0.32%.

All the Asian equity indices barring KLSE Composite finished the day's trade in the negative terrain on Tuesday led by Japanese Nikkei which lost more than a percent in trade today as investors' sentiment hurt by weak earnings reports from Nintendo and Nidec while, worries about the impact of last month's natural disasters on corporate Japan too dampened the sentiments in the region. Moreover, Chinese benchmark index fell more than half a percent as investors remained cautious ahead of an upcoming long weekend and potential policy tightening.

INTENSE SELLING PRESSURE

Local equity markets are witnessing intense selling pressure as investors are seemingly booking profits in the week of futures & options (F&O) expiry. All the Asian markets are trading in the negative terrain with Nikkei 225 being the major laggard in the pack. The US index futures were also showing down-tick in screen trade at this point of time. Back home, all the sectors are trading in the red. Fast moving consumer goods, capital goods, auto, banking and metal stocks are among the prominent losers. Power, consumer durables, healthcare and information technology stocks are also trading weak. The broader markets are also trading in the negative territory with BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices declining by 0.40% and 0.45%, respectively. The market breadth on the BSE was in favour of declines in the ratio of 1558:933 while 91 scrips remained unchanged. Political tensions also weighed on the sentiments as Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) charged Kanimozhi Karunanithi, a Rajya Sabha member and daughter of M. Karunanidhi, who leads the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam political party, in connection with an allegedly rigged sale of telecom licenses and bandwidth in 2008.
The BSE Sensex plummeted 220.51 points or 1.13% at 19,363.80. The index has touched a high of 19,600.79 and a low of 19,314.07 respectively.
The BSE Mid cap and Small cap indices declined 0.40% and 0.45%, respectively. 
All the sectoral indices on the BSE were trading in the red. Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) down 1.88%, Capital Goods (CG) down 1.35%, Auto down 1.01%, Bankex down 0.99% and Metal down 0.97% were the top losers in the BSE sectoral space.
The top losers on the Sensex were HDFC down 2.63%, HUL down 2.49%, Sterlite Inds down 2.36%, ITC down 2.31% and Maruti Suzuki down 2.05%.
On the flip side, Bharti Airtel up 0.65% and RCom up 0.38% were the only gainers on the index.
Even as the surging trade deficit that India faces with China remains a significant policy concern, the commerce and industry ministry said on Monday that the government was working on bridging this deficit and China too has promised to take some steps that will help bring the bilateral trade more into a balance.
Commerce and industry minister Anand Sharma said that the Chinese policy was witnessing a clear and remarkable shift towards a more domestic consumer-driven economy which was likely to benefit Indian exporters and enhance trade ties between the two sides. "Recently unveiled 12th Five-Year Plan for 2012-16 of China, with a strong slant for a domestic consumer-driven economy, will give enormous opportunity for Indian exporters to access China's huge consumer market in the coming years," the commerce ministry said.
Sharma held a meeting with Jiang Jufeng, governor of Sichuan Province in China, and raised concerns over the widening trade deficit. Following the meeting he said not only was there immense opportunity for the two sides to coordinate their efforts towards a boosting bilateral trade, the Chinese government was also willing to take some India specific moves that will help curb country's trade balance with its neighbor.
Highlighting the increasing trade deficit Sharma said that the gap between India's exports and its imports from China increased to $20.02 billion for 2010, against $15.87 billion in 2009. The minister however was hopeful that with the changing focus of Chinese policy makers to domestic led growth and additional opportunities for Indian exporters as promised by China, particularly in field of pharmaceutical and information technology, the trade deficit will narrow down considerably in this fiscal year.
The S&P CNX Nifty tumbled 70.75 points or 1.20% at 5803.75.  The index has touched a high and a low of 5878.25 and 5792.05 respectively.
The top losers of the Nifty were Kotak Mahindra Bank down 3.12%, HDFC down 2.85%, HUL down 2.58%, Rel Capital down 2.53% and ITC down 2.50%.
On the flip side, BPCL up 1.38%, Ambuja Cement up 0.84%, RCom up 0.67%, Bharti Airtel up 0.52% and Hero Honda up 0.25% were the only gainers on the index.
Rest of the Asian markets are trading in the red. Shanghai Composite shed 0.54%, Hang Seng declined 0.91%, Jakarta Composite slipped 0.99%, KLSE Composite dipped 0.08%, Nikkei 225 declined 1.14%, Straits Times dropped 0.38%, Seoul Composite slipped 0.50% and Taiwan Weighted dipped 0.03%