Thursday, February 3, 2011

BULLS ARE BACK

A day after witnessing the dead cat bounce, Indian markets have seen a reversal of sorts as a result of a short-covering rally in the index heavyweights, weeks ahead of Budget 2011. After snapping the five day losing streak selling in previous session, the frontline indices managed to fire on all cylinders in today's session as investor remained in jubilant mood through the session. Weak market leads like yet another spike in inflation numbers and subdued opening of European peers too got discounted as investors remained on bargain hunting. The NSE's 50-share broadly followed index, Nifty staged a smart recovery and closed near the high point of the day around the 5,500 support level while the Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index Sensex garnered over three hundred fifty points to settle just below the psychological 18,500 level. The broader markets too participated in the rally but underperformed compared to their larger peers with BSE's midcap climbing 1.09% and BSE's smallcap gaining 1.21%. All sectoral indices remained on buyers' radar with the rate sensitive, Real Estate counter surging the most as realty majors like DLF and HDIL zooming 7.42% and 6.37% respectively. Meanwhile the ministry of commerce and industry released India's Food inflation numbers which rose 17.05% on annual basis during week-ended Jan 22, significantly faster compared with 15.57% recorded in the previous week. Sugar stocks saw huge position build up raw-sugar prices surged to the highest level in three decades on mounting concern that global supplies will trail demand as sugar cane plantations in Australia, the third-largest exporter, suffered severe damage after Tropical Cyclone Yasi cut through an area accounting for a third of output. While most fertilizer shares rallied too on reports that the Committee of Secretaries (CoS) is scheduled to meet on February 7 to assess the Urea decontrolling mechanism. The index heavyweight Reliance Industries continued to gain traction in today's trade as it amassed 2.40% points. Cement major Ambuja Cements climbed 3.55% on reporting growth in Q3 net profits.
On the global front, all Asian markets barring the Japanese benchmarks remained closed today on account of Lunar New Year Day holiday. The Japanese Nikkei settled with moderate losses as investors remained cautious on worries that the violence in Egypt could escalate. While, investors in Europe resorted to profit booking and the benchmark indices there are trading with a negative bias. On the other hand, the screen trading for US index futures indicated that the Dow could open on a flat to negative at the opening.
Earlier on the Dalal Street, the benchmarks started on a cautious note after the volatility witnessed in the last hour of Wednesday's trade, however the indices managed to capitalize on the initial gains as absence of any follow-up profit booking seemingly led to the return of confidence among investors. The frontline indices showed great resilience despite the disappointing inflation numbers and treaded on a northbound journey after the initial sluggishness. The bourses saw bargain hunting for most part of the trade and eventually finished the day's trade around the high points of the day with substantial gains. Volumes for markets remained marginally lower compared to Wednesday at around Rs 1.19 lakh crore while the turnover for NSE F&O segment too stayed low at over Rs 1.04 lakh crore. The market breadth on the BSE was heavily in the favour of advances as there were 1763 shares on the gaining side against 1037 shares on the losing side while 184 shares remained unchanged.
On charts: The S&P CNX Nifty may face strong resistance around 5485 and 5575 levels. It might find some support around 5344 levels and if this level is broken, the next important support lies only at 5280 mark. However, Nifty is having strong support around 5390-5402 mark.
Finally, the BSE Sensex sky-rocketed 358.69 points or 1.98% to settle at 18,449.31 while the S&P CNX Nifty surged 94.75 points or 1.74% to end at 5526.75.
The BSE Sensex touched a high and a low of 18,466.21 and 18,064.61, respectively.
DLF up 7.42%, JP Associates up 6.06%, Bharti Airtel up 5.12%, Hindalco Inds up 4.62% and Tata Motors up 4.08% were the major gainers on the Sensex, while Bajaj Auto down by 0.51% was the only loser on the index.
The BSE Mid-cap and Small-cap indices soared 1.09% and 1.21%, respectively.
Meanwhile, food inflation in the country rose again sharply in the week-ended January 22, disregarding a bumper Kharif harvest and strong outlook for the Rabi crop as well as tightening by the monetary authority, leaving the policy makers clueless on what can bring the surging pace of rising food prices down in the short term.
According to the data released by the ministry of commerce and industry on Thursday, food price index rose 17.05% on annual basis during week-ended Jan 22, significantly faster compared with 15.57% recorded in the previous week. On a sequential or week-on-week basis, the index for food goods increased by 0.73% to 192.2 from 190.8 for the previous week, mainly due to higher prices of pulses and vegetables.
The index for 'Non-Food Articles' group too rose by 1.4% to 179.0 compared with 176.5 in the previous week. The broader 'Primary Articles' index, which has a weight of 20.12% in the overall wholesale price index (WPI), as a result increased by 0.5% to 194.6 compared with 193.6  for the previous week. The annual rate of inflation, calculated on point to point basis, for this group also increased significantly to 18.44% from 17.26% for the previous week.
The index for 'Fuel & Power' with a weight of 14.91% in overall WPI registered a growth of 0.7% to 151.9 as compared with 150.9 in the previous week. The annual rate of inflation for this group rose to 11.61% from 10.87% in the previous week. With crude oil prices in Asian markets crossing $100 due to the ongoing unrest in Egypt, even if the government does not hike the administered prices of diesel and cooking fuels, the hike in prices petrol, naphtha and aviation turbine fuel (ATF) by the oil marketing companies may further, push fuel inflation coming weeks.
The RBI had in its last policy review on January 25 hiked its short term lending rate by 25 basis points (bps) implementing seventh rate hike in the current financial year so far. However, with the food inflation so far giving thumbs down to both the strong Kharif harvest and rapid monetary tightening by the central bank, options with policy makers are fast shrinking. The government is likely to announce some major steps in forthcoming Budget in this context which may include slashing of import duties, hiking of export duties and importing more food commodities in short run while promoting investment and productivity in farm sector in long run to bring food inflation down.
All the BSE sectoral spaces were trading in the green. Realty up 3.93%, Capital Goods (CG) up 2.51%, Metal up 2.19%, Bankex up 2.04% and Public Sector Undertakings (PSU) up 1.71% were the major gainers.
The S&P CNX Nifty touched a high and a low of 5532.65 and 5418, respectively.
The top gainers on the Nifty were DLF up 8.30%, JP Associates up 6.79%, Bharti Airtel up 5.89%, Hindalco Inds up 5.13% and Ambuja Cement up 3.55%.
On the other hand, HCL Tech down 1.22%, Dr Reddy's down 0.83%, ACC down 0.81%, Ranbaxy Lab down 0.74% and IDFC down 0.67% were the major losers on the index.
The textile ministry has said that market size of Indian textile industry, including domestic sales and exports, is likely to triple over the current decade and touch $220 billion by 2020. 'It has been assessed that in this sector domestic market and export jointly are expected to grow from the current Rs 3.27 lakh crore ($70 billion) to Rs 10.32 lakh crore (around $220 billion by 2020,' said the Union Textiles Minister Dayanidhi Maran on Wednesday).
He also said that the industry was innovating and improving its efficiency in order to match the performance of key competitors like China. Over the last few years, there has been substantial improvement in vintage of technology in Indian textile industry, and Maran said at the inauguration of 'Tex Trends India' at New Delhi that the trend will continue going forward and will help boost growth of the industry as well as exports.
Speaking at the same event, Union Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee has said that the Indian government was sensitive to the needs of textile industry and will continue to provide the textile industry a conducive policy environment to facilitate its growth, augment R&D efforts, and encourage innovation with a view to enhance productivity.
He added that the government will continue to support technology up-gradation scheme (TUFS), to help improve the manufacturing processes and the development of human resources for this industry. The minister added that there were a number of measures towards this end in the Union Budget 2010-11 and more measures will be there in FY12 Budget. This suggests that government will announce fresh allocation for TUFS in the forthcoming Budget which was otherwise expected to end in the current financial year.
Textiles sector is one of the most important segments of Indian economy. In terms of employment, it comes second only to the agriculture and has a substantial share in national output and exports. The Indian textile industry accounts for about 14% of our total industrial production and contributes to nearly 15% of total exports, which amounted to around $28 billion in the year 2009-10. It provides direct employment to about 35 million people and another 56 million are engaged in allied activities.
Japanese Nikkei edged lower in the trade on Thursday as investors remained cautious on worries over an escalation of violence in Egypt. Moreover, tumbles in high-tech stocks viz. Panasonic Corp and Ricoh Co after reporting October-December earnings also weighed sentiments in the region. All the other Asian markets remained closed today on account of Lunar New Year Day holiday.
Nikkei 225 slipped 26.00 points or 0.25% to 10,431.36.
European markets were trading mixed on Thursday. France's CAC 40 lost 0.96% and Britain's FTSE 100 shed 0.25%, while Germany's DAX jumped 0.10%.
 

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