Monday, March 19, 2012

WEAKNESS

The trend witnessed across Indian equity markets is contrary to that of Asian pacific region, as barometer gauges after getting an optimistic start of the week are on declining trend. However, regional counterparts, after depicting mixed trend in early deals, recuperated from their lows, with an exception of Chinese market. The bearish sentiment post delivery of lackluster Union Budget 2012-13, continues to linger in investor's mind, which increasingly growing finicky and have pressed sales across most of the counters. Losing their crucial bastion, benchmark equity indices, registering loss of over half a percent, are now facing tough resistance to reclaim their 17400 (Sensex) and 5300 (Nifty) level respectively.
On the global front, Asian markets were trading mixed in early deals on Monday as investors paused to reassess the global growth outlook following some downbeat economic data in the US, while real estate developers struggled in Shanghai amid falling property prices. The regional mood was somewhat subdued by Friday's disappointing US consumer sentiment survey, a below-view industrial production outcome for February, and data showing there was little inflationary pressure outside of soaring energy costs. On the positive side, however, the data suggested the Federal Reserve will likely continue to support the U.S. economy with its ultra-easy monetary policy. Meanwhile, the US future indices continued to show an uptick in the screen trade.
Back on the home turf, muddled the most are the stocks belonging to Information Technology, Technology and  Bankex counters, however, stocks from defensive, Fast Moving Consumer Goods counters along with Consumer Durable and  Auto counters are seen capping the loss of the 30 share index of Bombay Stock Exchange -Sensex. However, prolonging the previous session's somber mood, fertilizer stocks like Coromandel International, Zuari Industries and Deepak Fertilisers have edged lower owing to lower fertilizer subsidy budgeted for 2012-13, while, the  decision to steadily prune subsidy allocations over three years, also has not augured well for the sector. Bucking the trend, the broader indices, doing well for themselves, are outperforming their frontline indices. The overall market breadth on BSE still remains in the favour of advances that have thumped declines in the ratio of 1136:1003, while 97 shares remained unchanged. The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 17,378.52, down by 87.68 points or 0.50%. The index has touched a high and a low of 17,561.46 and 17,360.28 respectively.   There were 10 stocks advancing against 19 declines on the index, while 1 stock remained unchanged.
The broader indices continue to trade in green; the BSE Mid cap and Small cap indices added 0.12% and 0.18% respectively.
The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were, FMCG up by 1.26%, CD up by 0.66%, Auto up by 0.38%, HC up by 0.16% and Metal up by 0.11%. While, IT down by 1.35%, TECk down by 1.07%,Bankex down by 0.94%, PSU down by 0.76% and Oil & Gas down by 0.68% were the top losers on the index.
The top gainers on the Sensex were M&M up by 1.82%, ITC up by 1.80%, HUL up by 1.60%, Sun Pharma up by 1.41% and Tata Motors up by 1.10%.
On the flip side, TCS down by 2.73%, HDFC down by 1.93%, BHEL down by 1.83%, SBI down by 1.63% and HDFC Bank down by 1.49% were the top losers on the Sensex.
Meanwhile, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee has expressed his optimism of rate cuts and policy reversal by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in the wake of moderation in inflation. He said that '... the fact that core inflation has moderated in the past three months and that in coming months we are looking at reversal in the policy rates should help in improving sentiments.' He stated that economic expansion could revive to as much as 7.85 percent in the fiscal year starting on April 1 and that inflation would ease.
However, budget deficit has been projected to exceed 5 percent for a second year and that could hamper the scope of RBI for a series of interest-rate cuts to bolster a slowing economy. The deficit for the year through March 31 is projected at 5.9 percent, wider than the 4.6 percent target set in 2011. RBI has signaled before the budget that better control of the nation's fiscal deficit would boost its scope to lower borrowing costs, which are at the highest level since 2008, at 8.5 percent.
The bank raised the repurchase rate by a record 3.75 percentage points from 2010 to October last year to fight price increases. The monthly inflation figure stood at 6.95 percent. Earlier this month, RBI reduced the cash reserve ratio (CRR) -- the portion of deposits banks require to keep with the central bank -- from 5.5 per cent to 4.75 per cent, pumping Rs 48,000 crore in the economy.
The S&P CNX Nifty is currently trading at 5,293.15, down by 24.75 points or 0.47%. The index has touched a high and a low of 5,340.70 and 5,281.70 respectively.  There were 17 stocks advancing against 33 declines on the index.
The top gainers of the Nifty were ACC up by 2.47%, Sterlite Industries up by 1.98%, ITC up by 1.78%, M&M up by 1.70% and HUL up by 1.59%.On the flip side, IDFC down by 3.14%, TCS down by 2.98%, HDFC down by 2.14%, BHEL and SBI were down by 1.74% were the major losers on the index.
Recovery was witnessed across Asian pacific region; Hang Seng and KLSE Composite gained 0.15%,Nikkei 225  added 0.19%, Straits Times expanded by 0.40%, Seoul Composite was up by 0.34% and Jakarta Composite bounced back 0.12%.
On the flip side, Shanghai Composite declined 0.28%, and Taiwan Weighted lost 0.30%

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