Friday, August 19, 2011

IN NO MOOD TO RECOVER

The equity markets don't seem to be in a mood to recover anytime soon as the global economic recovery continues to weigh on the sentiments. The signs of some bounce back from the early lows that appeared in mid morning trade has faded with the report of a strong earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 6.8 hitting northeastern Japan off Fukushima prefecture and a 50 cm tsunami advisory was issued for the coast of Miyagi and Fukushima. The equity markets that were already reeling under slowdown pressure caved suddenly as the nation is still to recover from the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, which left more than 20,000 dead or missing and destroyed 263,000 homes. Back home all the sectoral indices continue to trade in red with IT suffering the most, down by around 5 percent, the entire IT pack whether large cap or mid cap are severely witnessing selling pressure. The broader indices too continue to wilt further, losing about 2 percent at this point of time. The sharp cut in the European futures has added fuel to plunge in the domestic markets.
The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 16,190.91, down by 278.88 points or 1.69%. The index has touched a high and low of 16,287.72 and 16,114.60 respectively.  There were just 8 stocks advancing against 22 declines on the index.
The broader indices too slipped deep into red; the BSE Mid cap and Small cap indices were down by 1.86% and 2.28% respectively.
Selling was witnessed across the board, however, IT down by 4.72%, CG down by 3.71%, TECk down by 3.54%, CD down by 2.78% and Power down by 1.75% were the top losers on the index.
The top gainers on the Sensex were Coal India up by 1.56%, Hero Motor Corporation up by 1.08%, ONGC up by 0.82%, SBI up by 0.47% and Bharti Airtel was up by 0.32%.
On the flip side, Infosys down by 6.19%, Tata Motors down by 4.58%, L&T down by 4.46%, TCS down by 3.96% and BHEL down by 3.86% were the top losers on the index.
Meanwhile, the global financial services firm-Morgan Stanley has reduced its yearend target for the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensitive Index by 15% to 18,850, and on the other hand it reduced its forecast for India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth for current financial year ending on March 31, 2012 to 7.4% from 7.8% and it has also cut its estimate for 2012-12 to 7.6% from 8% made earlier.
Persistently high inflation, higher cost of capital, cut in the ratio of fiscal spending to GDP, a weak global capital markets environment and slow pace of investment is likely to cause a further slowdown in growth, the report said. It also stated that India's economic growth and corporate earnings will slow down, with the cut in the BSE index target and the uncertain global economy.
Due to the uncertainty in global economy, debt crisis in Europe and United States and slowdown in economy growth along with high inflation, sentiments in markets have been bearish from quite some time. The Sensex declined by 250 points to 16219.35, which is below from August 9, showing almost more than 20% decline from November 2010 peak. Last year the BSE Sensex closed at 20,509.09 which are around 8% higher than the Morgan Stanley's estimates for this year end.   
Earlier, Morgan Stanley cut its forecast for global growth this year, citing an insufficient policy response to Europe's sovereign debt crisis, weakened confidence and the prospect of fiscal tightening. On the other hand, outlook for the global economy was underscored by a Morgan Stanley note cutting its 2011 and 2012 global gross domestic product estimates. It cut its 2011 global GDP forecast to 3.9% from 4.2%, and its 2012 view to 3.8% from 4.5%.
The S&P CNX Nifty is currently trading at 4,860.80, down by 83.55 points or 1.69%. The index has touched a high and low of 4,893.60 and 4,839.05 respectively.  There were 12 stocks advancing against 38 declines on the index.
The top gainers of the Nifty were IDFC up by 1.86%, Hero Motocorp up by 1.04%, Kotak Bank and BPCL up by 0.91% and ONGC up by 0.85%.
Infosys down by 5.82%, L&T down by 4.66%, Tata Motors down by 4.49%, TCS down by 3.89% and BHEL down by 3.81% were the major losers on the index.
All the Asian equity indices were trading in the red; Shanghai Composite was down by 1.55%, Hang Seng was down by 2.90%, Jakarta Composite was down by 2.76%, KLSE Composite was down by 1.23%, Nikkei 225 was down by 2.51%, Straits Times was down by 3.09%, Seoul Composite was down by 6.22% and Taiwan Weighted was down by 3.57%.

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