Thursday, August 11, 2011

RISE IN INFLATION NUMBERS

The Indian equity markets continue trading weak but not as feeble as in opening trade and currently sliding down towards southward on ugly inflation numbers in the late morning session. The investor's still trading cautiously following a severe hold up on Wall Street overnight amid fears about the slow pace of economic growth and on worries about the debt crisis in the euro zone. After six successive sessions of losses, the market had rebounded on Wednesday after the US Federal Reserve's move on interest rates but with concerns about US and European economies the sentiments has turned cautious with a negative bias again. Meanwhile the primary articles inflation for week ended July 30 has increased at 12.22% versus 10.99%, food articles inflation is at 9.99% versus 8.04% (WoW) while fuel group inflation is at 12.19% versus 12.12% (WoW). On sectoral front Realty stocks are trading lower by more than 1%, while information technology stocks are also among the prominent losers as a weak US economy does not augur well for the IT industry which relies heavily on outsourcing work from US region. Automobile stocks, prominent gainers in the previous session, are among the other notable losers in late morning session. TECk, capital goods and consumer durables are mostly trading lower. Select oil and gas, FMCG, healthcare and metal stocks have moved up. On global front most of the Asian stocks were trading lower. Back home, the market breadth too witnessing negative trend; there were 1,099 shares on the gaining side against 1,315 shares on the losing side while 112 shares remained unchanged.
The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 17,081.23, down by 49.28 points or 0.29%. The index has touched a high and low of 17,155.33 and 17,012.95 respectively. There were 8 stocks advancing against 21 declines on the index and one remained unchanged.
The broader indices too trading into the red zone; the BSE Mid cap and Small cap indices were trading lower by 0.29% and 0.03% respectively.
The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were Oil and Gas up by 0.34%, FMCG up by 0.33%, HC up by 0.28% and Metal up by 0.02%. While, Realty down by 1.12%, Auto down by 1.04%, IT down by 0.94%, TECk down by 0.88% and CG down by 0.62% were the top losers on the index.
The top gainers on the Sensex were HDFC up by 2.05%, NTPC up by 1.91%, Sun Pharma up by 1.11% ITC up by 0.79% and RIL up by 0.78%.
On the flip side, Tata Power down by 3.91%, Tata Motors down by 2.39%, Maruti Suzuki down by 1.93%, DLF down by 1.74% and Bharti Airtel down by 1.57% were the top losers on the index.
Meanwhile, in order to cut the layers of intermediaries, road projects may soon be awarded in a true contract model - lock, stock and barrel to the lowest bidders. Initiated by the Planning Commission, the Roads Ministry is working on reviving the Engineering Procurement Construction (EPC) mode of road bidding, where projects will be awarded outright and official role will be reduced to deciding specifications and quality. The rephrased EPC policy is likely to be announced in 2-3 months time period.
If EPC gets implemented in the way planning commission is suggesting, then it would be cheaper than annuity-backed projects. EPC which was earlier passed on were half-hearted attempts or in item-based construction contracts where government maintained a lot on its plate, including estimates of work to be done by the contractor. On the other hand, the government paid the contractor on the basis of measurement of work, but the system was prone to cost escalation, and bereft of economy incentives.
The government had almost scrapped the model and shifted largely to annuity-based and toll-funded models. However, option to large-scale annuity funding has raised fiscal concerns. These payments could rapidly increase in the coming years and become a big pull on the government budget. The government's liability on account of annuity payments for highway construction had touched a whopping Rs 83,794 crore in 2010-11, which was more than three times the value of the projects awarded under the annuity mode, which involves fixed periodic payments by the government for 17 years.
For the year 2011-12, the government is intending to bid 60 percent of its PPP highway projects in the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) toll model, 35 percent of the projects in the BOT-annuity model and a scanty 5% of the projects in the EPC model. As per the new EPC model, the contractor will accept the risk and responsibility for both the design and the construction of work. The government will only provide a feasibility report. Private companies on the contrary will provide design based on the feasibility report and the government will select bidders on the basis of the design and costs quoted. This move is likely to reduce the number of intermediaries as the companies, which bags the project anyway give them out on true contract to smaller developers.
The S&P CNX Nifty is currently trading at 5,144.75, down by 16.25 points or 0.31%. The index has touched a high and low of 5,169.55 and 5,121.00 respectively. There were 19 stocks advancing against 31 declines on the index.
The top gainers of the Nifty were HDFC up by 2.23%, Kotak Bank up by 2.21%, NTPC up by 1.99%, Siemens up by 1.34% and Dr Reddy up by 1.10%.
Tata Power down by 4.09%, Tata Motors down by 2.56%, DLF down by 2.36, Maruti down by 1.81% and HCL Tech down by 1.81% were the major losers on the index.
Most of the Asian equity indices were trading in the red; Hang Seng was down by 0.94%, Jakarta Composite was down by 0.82%, KLSE Composite was down by 0.49%, Nikkei 225 down by 0.73%, Straits Times down by 0.61% and Taiwan Weighted down by 0.22%.
On the flip side, Seoul Composite was up by 0.70% and Shanghai Composite was up by 0.43%

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