Monday, January 23, 2012

CAUTION KEEPS THE MARKETS UNCHANGED

After showcasing a close to four percent rally in the week gone by, Indian benchmark equity indices consolidated their position around the previous closing levels on the first trading session of the holiday shortened F&O expiry week. The psychological 5,050 (Nifty) and 16,800 (Sensex) levels proved as stern resistances as the key gauges failed to surmount those levels by the end. The key gauges displayed listless performance through the day as the aimless benchmarks appeared exhausted and showed only sideways kind of movement in a tight band, lacking any significant upside triggers. The session was solely dedicated to sideways as investors awaited the announcement of all important RBI monetary policy action which is scheduled on January 24. While consensus estimates are that the Indian central bank will keep both repo and reverse repo rates unchanged at 8.5% and 7.5% respectively however, there are some expectations that the RBI will commit to open market operations (OMO). The main trade-off for policy action is between inflation and economic growth, and with recent economic indicators signaling growth picture is not as bad as feared, inflation will continue to be RBI's focus. The plunge of about three percent in index heavyweight Reliance Industries on the back of its disappointing third quarter earnings announcement prevented the upside chances for the frontline gauges in the session while other bellwethers like L&T, Maruti Suzuki, Sterlite too announced their third quarter earnings on Monday. While stocks like L&T and Maruti got commended for the performance by investors, however, Sterlite reported its third quarter earnings which were not in line with street's expectations and got punished for its unimpressive performance. In the global space, on a day when all major Asian equity markets enjoyed an extended weekend, the Japanese benchmark remained the only index which traded and settled with modest loss. The European markets exhibited unenthusiastic cues as marketmen looked forward for the European Union meet scheduled later in the global day where the region's leaders may decide upon measures to tackle a debt crisis.
Earlier on Dalal Street, the benchmark got off to a soft start in the morning trade tracking the lackluster moves in Japanese markets on a day when most Asian markets were off on extended weekend. The indices kept see-sawing around the neutral line as they moved only sideways through the day's trade. After touching intraday lows in early noon trades the gauges recovered to intraday highs in mid noon trades but only to eventually settle in close proximity with previous closing levels. The NSE's 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, shed two points to settle just shy of the crucial 5,050 support level while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index or Sensex added twelve points and ended above the psychological 16,750 mark. Moreover, the broader markets too remained range bound and finally closed with marginal gains, performing in tandem with their larger peers. On the BSE sectoral space, defensive-FMCG counter remained the top gainer in the space with gains of about a percent while the high beta Realty sector along with TECk pocket too gained a lot of traction and settled with similar gains. On the flipside, the Metal counter remained the top laggard with over two percent cuts after heavyweight Sterlite plunged over five percent post announcing disappointing results. The markets consolidated on weaker volumes of over Rs 1.27 lakh core while the turnover for NSE F&O segment also remained on the lower side as compared to that on Friday at over Rs 1.11 lakh crore. The market breadth remained positive as there were 2451 shares on the gaining side against 1334 shares on the losing side while 129 shares remained unchanged.
Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 12.72 points or 0.08% to settle at 16,751.73, while the S&P CNX Nifty lost 2.35 points or 0.05% to close at 5,046.25.
The BSE Sensex touched a high and a low of 16,784.00 and 16,659.32 respectively. The BSE Mid cap and Small cap indices were up by 0.06% and 0.27% respectively.
The major gainers on the Sensex were Maruti Suzuki up 5.77%, Bharti Airtel up 3.03%, BHEL up 2.69%, DLF up 2.50% and ICICI Bank up 1.80%. While, Sterlite Inds down 5.36%, Hindalco Inds down 4.29%, Hero MotoCorp down 4.11%, RIL down 2.82% and Coal India down 2.73%, were the major losers on the index.
On the BSE sectoral space, FMCG up 0.83%, Realty up 0.82%, TECk up 0.81%, Capital Goods (CG) up 0.77% and Power up 0.73% were the top gainers, while Metal down 2.06%, Oil & Gas down 1.66%, Consumer Durables (CD) down 0.53%, PSU down 0.15% and Health Care (HC) down 0.10% were top losers.
Meanwhile, gems & Jewellery exports have declined by huge 15% in the month of December as compared to the same period last year. According to the Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) India exported jewellery worth $3 billion in the month of December against $3.5 billion in December 2011.
The exports decline was mainly due to a slowdown in demand in the US and EU markets. According to the GJEPC Chairman Rajiv Jain, "There has been a demand slowdown for our products mostly from the western markets like the US and EU'.
Exports of cut and polished diamonds in December declined by 40% year-on-year in dollar terms. In volume terms, exports fell by 31%, to 36.38 lakh carats. Exports of cut and polished diamonds from India during the nine-month period of April-December 2011 lower by 5% in dollar terms. However, gold jewellery exports saw robust growth during December by 41% to $778.37 million. While, during the same period, silver jewellery exports too moved up, partly due to the low base effect. During the April-December period, gems and jewellery exports have grown 11.65% to $32.1 billion, compared to the same period last fiscal.
Exporters are now exploring new markets like Latin America, Africa and Russia to reduce dependence on traditional markets. Other major markets for the country's gems and jewellery exports include the UAE and Hong Kong. India mainly imports gold and rough diamonds in large quantities and re-exports value-added items like jewellery.
The S&P CNX Nifty touched a high and low of 5,059.55 and 5,021.35, respectively.
The top gainers on the Nifty were Maruti Suzuki up 5.75%, BHEL up 2.94%, DLF up 2.92%, Bharti Airtel up 2.82% and ITC up 1.81%.
On the flip side, Sterlite Industries down 6.01%, Hindalco Industries down 4.91%, Hero MotoCorp down 4.18%, Kotak Bank down 3.98% and Coal India down 3.19% were the top losers on the index.
The European markets were trading mixed. France's CAC 40 up 0.34%, Britain's FTSE 100 gained 0.53% and Germany's DAX down by 0.06%.
In Asia, only a handful of markets remained open for trade on Monday. Japanese markets ended flat on Monday to halt a four-day winning streak, with early gains capped by market worries over Greece after negotiations with private creditors failed, raising the stakes for a meeting later in the day at which euro zone finance ministers will decide terms for a debt restructuring. Earlier, Nikkei opened up for the fifth day in a row as US home sales rose to the highest level in almost a year.
Olympus Corp, battling to emerge from a $1.7 billion accounting scandal, zoomed over 8% after the Tokyo Stock Exchange kept it listed, meaning it will be easier to raise capital, though with a special designation for firms needing to urgently improve internal management.
Nikkei 225 was down marginally by 0.46 points or 0.01% to 8,765.90.
Stock markets in China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan remained closed on Monday in observance of a public holiday. 

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