Thursday, January 12, 2012

INFY SPOOKS THE MARKETS AGAIN

Indian frontline equity indices went through a lot of commotion on the penultimate trading session of the week and sank close to a percent, as the shockwaves spurred by Infosys's dismal guidance for the fourth quarter outweighed the encouraging monthly IIP and weekly Inflation numbers. The frontline indices not only failed to extend the uptrend for third straight session but also could not protect the psychological 16,100 (Sensex) and 4,850 (Nifty) levels as ruthless position squaring in the information technology space dragged the tech-heavy index. Sentiments got spooked right from start of trade as bellwether Infosys came out with its third quarter earnings which were good in rupee terms thanks to around 11% correction in rupee since the second quarter but the stock got badly butchered by over 8% for its flat guidance for the fourth quarter in dollar terms. A ray of hope came with the announcement of pleasantly surprising November industrial output figures which showed IIP surpassed all estimates to stage a sharp rebound to 5.9% in November, a month after contracting to a revised 4.7%. But the upbeat IIP numbers could not succeed in propping up sentiments as investors were worried that the RBI may not resort to monetary easing after the strong IIP numbers in its upcoming policy review meet on January 24. Meanwhile, PMEAC Chairman C Rangarajan pointed out that RBI is likely to prefer open market operations (OMOs) over Cash reserve Ratio (CRR) cut. Moreover, the negative weekly food inflation data too failed to boost investors' morale in the session. Food prices fell for the second consecutive week as food inflation remained in the negative zone at -2.90% for the week ended December 31, 2011. In the meantime, earnings announcement by major lender HDFC which was largely in line with street's expectations went unnoticed. On the global front, Asian markets largely exhibited pessimistic trends on getting a disappointing Japanese trade data while Chinese inflation eased marginally but the moderation was far less than anticipated. However, European stocks traded on a positive note as investors awaited key rate and monetary-policy announcements from the Bank of England and European Central Bank.
Earlier on Dalal Street, the benchmark got off to a somber opening on the back of Infosys' earnings announcement and pessimistic sentiments prevailing in Asian markets. The sluggish trade continued till the announcement of monthly IIP numbers, post which the key gauges showed some signs of recovery. But the optimism did not last for long as hefty position squaring in the IT space dragged them to intraday lows. The bourses found some support around the crucial 4,800 and 16,000 levels as the benchmarks eventually managed to settle above those levels but halted the two session uptrend. Finally the NSE's 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, declined over half a percent to settle above the crucial 4,800 support level while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index Sensex sank over hundred points and ended above the psychological 16,000 mark. Moreover, the broader markets showed some resilience and did not succumb to the intense selling pressure under which their larger peers reeled and finished with marginal gains. In the BSE sectoral space, the IT and TECk counters remained the top laggards, as they got pounded by about 6% and 4.5% respectively. However, the Power index went home as the top performer and surged over 1% on the back of strong growth in IIP numbers. The markets slipped on stronger volumes of over Rs 1.28 lakh core while the turnover for NSE F&O segment also remained on the higher side as compared to that on Wednesday at over 1.09 lakh crore. The market breadth remained optimistic as there were 1422 shares on the gaining side against 1310 shares on the losing side while 143 shares remained unchanged.
Finally, the BSE Sensex lost 138.35 points or 0.86% to settle at 16,037.51, while the S&P CNX Nifty declined by 29.70 points or 0.61% to close at 4,831.25.
The BSE Sensex touched a high and a low of 16,178.58 and 15,962.59 respectively. The BSE Mid cap and Small cap indices were up by 0.26% and 0.15% respectively.
The major gainers on the Sensex were SBI up 2.03%, Hindalco Industries up 1.81%, Tata Power up 1.72%, Coal India up 1.66% and Tata Steel up 1.46%. While, Infosys down 8.40%, TCS down 3.89%, Wipro down 2.60%, Reliance down 1.44%  and L&T down 1.25%, were the major losers on the index.
On the BSE sectoral space, Power up 1.32%, Metal up 1.08%, Bankex up 1.08%, Auto up 0.84% and PSU up 0.70% were the top gainers, while IT down 5.96%, TECk down 4.41%, Oil & Gas down 0.81% and Capital Goods (CG) down 0.22% were the top losers on the BSE sectoral space.
Meanwhile, in a major surprise to the Indian economy the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) has bounced back in the month of November and beating the general expectation of 2-3% stood at 5.9% after showing a sharp plunge in the previous month of (-) 5.1%. The development that soothed the sentiment most is the bounce back in manufacturing sector that grew at 6.6% in November, 2011 against de-growth of 6% in the corresponding month in 2010. Consumer durables and consumer non-durables too showed remarkable improvement, while the Capital Goods and Mining index remained the laggards. Mining output shrank 4.4% and capital goods output shrank 4.6% from a year earlier. Meanwhile, the October output figure had been revised to minus 4.1%.
As per the quick estimates of Central Statistics Office of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, the General Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for the month of November 2011 stands at 167.4, which is 5.9% higher as compared to the level in the month of November 2010. The cumulative growth for the period April-November 2011-12 stands at 3.8% over the corresponding period of the previous year.
The indices of Industrial Production for the Mining, Manufacturing and Electricity sectors for the month of November 2011 stand at 127.6, 177.8 and 145.6 respectively, with the corresponding growth rates of (-) 4.4%, 6.6% and 14.6% as compared to November 2010. In terms of industries, 17 out of the 22 industry groups in the manufacturing sector have shown positive growth during the month of November 2011 as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year.
As per Use-based classification, the growth rates in November 2011 over November 2010 are 6.3% in Basic goods, (-) 4.6% in Capital goods and 0.2% in Intermediate goods. The Consumer durables and Consumer non-durables have recorded growth of 11.2% and 14.8% respectively, with the overall growth in Consumer goods being 13.1%.
Apart from Capital goods and Mining, the other important items showing negative growth during the month are: 'Cement Machinery' (-)72.1%, 'Cable, Rubber Insulated'  (-)65.5%, 'Colour  TV  Picture  Tubes' (- ) 64.0% ,'UPS/Inverter/Converter' (-)61.4%, 'Particle Boards' (-)30.3% and 'Cotton Yarn' (-)18.7%.
The S&P CNX Nifty touched a high and low of 4,869.20 and 4,803.90, respectively.
The top gainers on the Nifty were Sesa Goa up 4.94%, IDFC up 3.56%, JP Associates up 3.25%, Grasim up 3.18% and Reliance Power up 3.14%.
On the flip side, Infosys down 8.36%, TCS down 3.58%, HCL Tech down 2.24%, Wipro down 2.16% and L&T down 1.75% were the top losers on the index.
The European markets were trading in green. France's CAC 40 up 0.94%, Britain's FTSE 100 up by 0.27% and Germany's DAX up by 1.33%.
Asian equities exhibited sluggish trade throughout the day's trade and snapped the session mostly in the red on Thursday, amid inflation data in China that failed to meet expectations and fears of a possible recession in Europe. Data released on Thursday showed Chinese inflation eased slightly in December to 4.1 percent, from November's 4.2 percent. Meanwhile, growth problems in Europe continued to spook investors. Germany reported Wednesday that its economy shrank slightly at the end of last year. And the European Union revised its figures for economic growth in the third quarter to 0.1 percent, its slowest pace in more than two years.
Japanese Nikkei average fell on Thursday in profit-taking ahead of a futures settlement, as market participants fretted over key debt auctions. Moreover, Taiwan stocks ended flat as investors remained sidelined amid a tight race for the island's presidential vote on Saturday. However, South Korea's Seoul bucked the regional trend to finish up over a percentage point after dropping in five of the last six sessions.

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