Wednesday, November 2, 2011

CAUTIOUS MARKETS

Wednesday's session turned out to be a disappointing one for the Indian stock markets, as the optimism that was evident in afternoon trades fizzled out completely by the end, leading the benchmark equity indices to a flat closing around the neutral line. The session was largely marred by high volatility as the key indices gyrated between gains and losses frequently. Investors lacked to conviction to open fresh positions amid a lot of uncertainties surrounding the European region. The upside for local markets was capped by reports that Greek PM won the backing of his cabinet to hold a referendum on a 130 billion euro bailout package. Marketmen slipped into even more anxiety at the thought that Greece may vote to reject the European rescue package and default on their sovereign debt. The weaker than expected global manufacturing growth, particularly in world's top two economies the US and China, reignited  fresh worries over the strength of global economic recovery. However, investors hoped from some encouraging developments from the global front ahead of a key US Federal Reserve meet outcome which may signal more measures to bring the weakening US economy back on recovery mode. On the domestic front, the over a percent surge in index heavyweight Reliance Industries did its bit in preventing a sharp decline for the frontline gauges while gains in some stocks from the rate sensitive banking and automobile counters too proved beneficial. Meanwhile, PSU oil marketing companies too went home with notable gains on the back of reports that government owned oil companies are planning to hike the petrol prices for 13th time since June 2010, due to depreciation in rupee which increased the cost of imports of crude oil.
Earlier on Dalal Street, the benchmark got off to a sluggish opening as investors largely remained influenced by the pessimistic sentiments prevailing in Asian markets. But the indices soon started showing signs of recovery and bounced back into the green territory in mid morning trades. The key gauges hit highest point in the session in early afternoon session mirroring the European futures which traded good gains of over a percent. However, the indices failed to capitalize on the momentum and instead the optimism petered out by the end of trade leading the bourses to a quiet finish. Eventually the NSE's 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, gained by half a point and settled above the crucial 5,250 support level while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index Sensex eased by fifteen points and closed above the psychological 17,450 mark. Moreover, the broader markets finished on a mixed note but stayed in close proximity with the previous closing levels. On the BSE sectoral space, the rate sensitive Auto and Bankex counters settled as the top laggards in the space after suffering losses of less than half a percent. On the flipside, the Oil and Gas and the defensive Healthcare and FMCG pockets went home with a positive close. The markets consolidated on larger volumes of over Rs 1.10 lakh crore while the turnover for NSE F&O segment too remained on the higher side as compared to Tuesday at over 0.99 lakh core. The market breadth remained pessimistic as there were 1,395 shares on the gaining side against 1,434 shares on the losing side while 129 shares remained unchanged.
Finally, the BSE Sensex lost 15.98 points or 0.09% to settle at 17,464.85, while the S&P CNX Nifty gained 0.50 points or 0.01% to close 5,258.45.
The BSE Sensex touched a high and a low of 17,615.92 and 17,337.65 respectively. The BSE Mid cap index was up by 0.02%, while Small cap index down by 0.06%.
The major gainers on the Sensex were Reliance Industries up 1.27%, Tata Power up 0.99%, Jindal Steel up 0.75%, JP Associate up 0.66% and M&M up 0.56%. While, Hero MotCorp down 2.84%, Bharti Airtel down 2.63%, NTPC down 1.24%, BHEL down 1.10% and Coal India down 1.06% were the major losers on the index.
The top gainers on the BSE sectoral space were Oil & Gas up 0.76%, Health Care (HC) up 0.44% and FMCG up 0.24%. While Auto down 0.44%, Bankex down 0.35%, PSU down 0.33%, TECk down 0.33% and Capital Goods (CG) down 0.30% were top losers on the BSE sectoral space.
Meanwhile, the government owned oil companies are planning to hike the petrol prices for 13th time since June 2010, due to depreciation in rupee which increased the cost of imports of crude oil.
On September 2011, Indian Oil, Hindustan Petroleum and Bharat Petroleum had increased petrol prices by Rs 3.14 per litre, at that point of time, the Rupee was ruling at around Rs 48 against $1. The rupee has depreciated because of the slowdown in United States and European economies. Presently rupee is trading at over Rs 49 against American currency.
As per HPCL senior official, oil companies are making losses on petrol and may increase prices to cover these losses. The international market price of crude oil are hovering around $108 per barrel, at present exchange rate, petrol price of Rs 66.84 per litre in Delhi corresponds to about $102 per barrel equivalent of crude oil price.
In June 2010, the government had deregulated petrol prices, however the retail rates have not moved in line with the cost as high inflation rate forced the oil companies to seek advice from parent oil ministry before revising rates.
However, it is not clear that when petrol prices would be increased. Without any elaboration, the official said, 'We are in consultations.'
Currently oil companies are losing around Rs 1.50 per litre on the sale of petrol after including local taxes and are looking to hike petrol prices by Rs 1.83 per litre. Along with petrol, the oil marketing companies are also losing around Rs 333 crore a day on selling diesel, domestic cooking gas and kerosene below market price.
Oil firms lose around Rs 9.27 and Rs 26.94 on every litre of diesel and kerosene, and around Rs 260.5 on every 14.2 kg LPG cylinder.  At this pace, in the current financial year the firms are expected to lose around Rs 1,21,459 crore in revenue on the sale of diesel, domestic LPG and kerosene.
The said revenue loss on these three petroleum products is compensated via a combination of government cash subsidy and upstream oil firm dole outs. But, there is no such mechanism to compensate for the revenue loss made on the sale of petrol as the price has been decontrolled.
However, government has failed to give the committed cash subsidy to oil firms of around Rs 15,000 crore announced for the April-June 2011 quarter, worsening the financial health. During the said quarter, oil companies made revenue loss of more than Rs 9,000 crore.
The S&P CNX Nifty touched high and low of 5,300.10 and 5,204.95, respectively.
The top gainers on the Nifty were RCOM up 4.97%, RPower up 3.10%, Reliance Infra up 2.16%, HCL Tech up 1.90% and Dr Reddy up 1.68%. On the flip side, PNB down 3.37%, Bharti Airtel down 2.72%, Hero MotoCorp down 2.45%, ICICI Bank down 1.39% and Tata Steel down 1.27% were the top losers on the index.
The European markets were trading mixed. France's CAC 40 rose 0.46%, Britain's FTSE 100 down by 0.36%, and Germany's DAX increased by 0.71%.
After a subdued start, Asian equity indices managed to end the session on mixed note on Wednesday as several Asian counterparts recouped their morning losses as traders awaited the outcome of the US Federal Reserve's rate-setting meeting later in the global day. Moreover, markets also got support on report that embattled Greek Premier George Papandreou's plan for a referendum on the country's latest bailout package had been unanimously passed by the Greek Cabinet earlier in the global day. The referendum is likely to take place before Christmas, slightly earlier than expected. However, Japanese finance minister said that the referendum move had 'confused people', ahead of a Group of 20 meeting in France on Thursday where the issue was expected to top the agenda.
Meanwhile, Shanghai Composite surged about 1.40 percent on hopes for looser monetary policy. However, investors still kept distance from riskier assets amid the fresh euro-zone jitters. While, Nikkei share average fell more than two percent on Wednesday to a three-week low on resurgent fears over the euro zone's debt woes.

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