Monday, November 21, 2011

MARKETS CONTINUE TO FALL

Frontline equity indices extended their corrosion from early deals as cagey marketmen continued cashing profits amidst deteriorating macroeconomic conditions since lack of concrete measures to stem the European sovereign-debt crisis which sent jitters across the globe, pounded the sentiment on home turf too. Market jitters were evident a day after Spain voted in a new government - the third time in as many weeks that Europe's debt crisis has toppled an administration. Spain dumped its ruling Socialist government on Sunday for the conservative leadership of Mariano Rajoy, who inherits an economy wracked by debt and an unemployment nightmare - which at more than 21 percent is the highest among the 17 nations that use the euro.
However, investor confidence also took a hit when China and Singapore painted a bleak picture of the global economy, with uncertainty over deficit-reduction negotiations in the U.S. adding to the gloom. A Financial Times report cited that Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan said the world will enter a long-term recession. Additionally, Singapore government said on Monday that the country's economic growth is likely to weaken in 2012 compared to this year amid 'deteriorating external macroeconomic environment'.
Negative spell also emerged from regional counterparts which were trading on a somber note post an unexpected trade deficit for Japan further hurt exporter shares in Tokyo. Japan fell into a trade deficit in October as a stubbornly strong yen, softening global demand and disruption from deadly floods in Thailand helped slow its post-quake recovery. October exports dropped off while imports kept soaring, leaving a deficit of 273.8 billion yen ($3.6 billion). Meanwhile, gains were muted on Wall Street on Friday. While the Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators rose more than Wall Street analysts were expecting - a sign that the economy may pick up in the coming months -many investors were cautious as a key Congressional committee remained deadlocked on ways to cut the U.S. budget deficit. The US future indices were showing a downtick in the screen trade.
Back home, slippage of the Index heavyweight- Reliance Industries- also added to the early carnage on Dalal Street.  On the BSE Sectoral front, stocks from Oil & Gas, Metal and Bankex counters were the worst hit of the session, while stocks from Realty and Healthcare counters were striving to act as stress busters. However, the similar kind of the energy was noticed in broader indices which with strong teeth of resilience were pruning losses. 30 share barometer index-Sensex- of Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) declining over 150 points trading sub 16300 level. Similarly, 50 share index -Nifty-on NSE - contracting close to 50 points gyrating sub 4900 mark. The overall market breadth on BSE was in the favour of declines which thumped advances in the ratio of 1106:967, while 86 shares remained unchanged.
The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 16215.32, down by 156.19 points or 0.95%.  The index has touched a high and low of 16,297.03 and 16,180.29 respectively.  There were 9 stocks advancing against 21 declining ones on the index.
The broader indices unlike frontline indices had pruned losses; the BSE Mid cap and Small cap indices declined by 0.46% and 0.02% respectively.
The two gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were, Realty up by 0.09% and HC up by 0.04%. While, Oil and Gas down by 1.39%, Metal down by 1.20%, Bankex down by 1.19%, IT down by 1.17% and TECk down by 1.12% were the top losers on the index.
The top gainers on the Sensex were Jaiprakash Associates up by 1.61%, Maruti Suzuki up by 1.41%, Coal India up by 0.80%, L&T up by 0.80% and Cipla up by 0.70%.
On the flip side, Tata Motors was down by 2.94%, Bajaj Auto down by 2.48%, BHEL down by 2.34%, RIL down by 2.26%, and NTPC down by 2.21% were the top losers on the Sensex.
Meanwhile, growth in the manufacturing sector has moderated in the first half of current financial year compared to the corresponding period of the last financial year, and it is likely to slow down further in the ongoing quarter because of increase in input cost and uncertainties in the global economy.
'The manufacturing sector has observed moderation in growth during April-Sep 2011 compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. The industry expects further moderation in growth in the third quarter -- Oct-Dec 2011,' said a Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) Ascon survey.
The survey further stated that the number of sectors recording excellent and high growth is expected to decline and shift to moderate growth category. Out of 103 sectors covered by the survey, those reporting excellent growth of more than 20% declined to 10.6% in April-September 2011 compared to 35.7%  in April-September 2010.
During April-September 2011, 43.6% sectors recorded a moderate growth rate compared to 38.9% sectors in the previous period. The percentage of sectors with high growth rate has increased from 16.7% in April-September 2010 to 24.2% in the same quarter in 2011. The sectors registering a negative growth rate have increased significantly to 21.3% from a low of 8.7%, which is a clear sign of decelerating growth.
The CII survey also showed that further slowdown in growth with a larger number of sectors is declining in the moderate category of growth of 0-10%. Out of 85 sectors covered by the survey for the period Oct-Dec 2011, the percentage of sectors reporting excellent growth of more than 20% is expected to decline to 7% from 10.4% in July-September 2011 and 20.7% in April-June 2011.
As per the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the manufacturing sector grew by just 5.4% in the first six months of 2011-12, compared to 8.8% in corresponding period of 2010-11. And in September 2011, it grew a modest 2.1% compared to 6.9% in September 2010. 
Chandrajit Banerjee, director general of CII said, 'high input and capital cost and uncertainties in the global economy are the major factors constraining growth of the manufacturing sector. These issues need to be addressed at the earliest to help industry overcome the ongoing decelerating growth phase.
While the categories like basic goods, intermediate goods, capital goods and consumer non-durables have fewer sectors in the excellent and high growth brackets, consumer durables have a larger share of sectors growing at a high rate. The worst performing category is intermediate goods that have a maximum number of sectors expected to record negative growth.
The S&P CNX Nifty is currently trading at 4,858.00, lower by 47.80 points or 0.97%. The index has touched a high and low of 4,873.80 and 4,847.55 respectively.  There were 11 stocks advancing against 39 declines on the index.
The top gainers of the Nifty were Maruti Suzuki up by 1.51, Jaiprakash Associates up by 1.45% Coal India up by 1.04%, L&T up by 0.66% and Cipla up by 0.60%.
On the flip side, SAIL down by 3.08% Tata Motors down by 2.97%, Bajaj Auto down by 2.49%, RIL down by 2.31% and TCS down by 2.12% were the major losers on the index.
Asian peers prolonged their somber mood journey; Shanghai Composite slid 0.37%, Hang Seng plunged 1.83%, Jakarta Composite slid 1.48%, KLSE Composite declined 0.99%, Nikkei 225 fell 0.16%, Straits Times surrendered 0.53%, Seoul Composite contracted 0.58% and Taiwan Weighted tanked 2.01%.

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