Thursday, November 17, 2011

YET ANOTHER ASSAULT

Fragile Indian stock markets have taken yet another nasty laceration on Thursday as prolonged position squaring once again remained the order of the day and investors at large looked to avoid long positions. The session turned to be a tumultuous one for the benchmarks which got thrashed for the sixth straight session of trade to end on an extremely abysmal note after suffering close to two percent losses. Sovereign bond yields on the 10-year Spanish and French bonds spiked to Euro-era record highs which sent shockwaves across the bourses in the late hours of trade as the frontline indices drifted to their lowest levels in six weeks. Marketmen remained nervous ahead of French and Spanish bond auctions scheduled later in the day. Domestic benchmarks seem to have taken turn for the worse after being brutally butchered in the session and breaching the crucial psychological levels of 5,000 and 16,500. The notable moderation in India's weekly inflation numbers too failed to underpin sentiments. India's food inflation declined for the second consecutive week to 10.63% in the week ended November 05. Meanwhile the RBI Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn opined the central bank will not relax the quantum of deposits banks have to park with the central bank, dubbed the cash reserve ratio (CRR), to ease current liquidity pressures. Reports that empowered group of ministers (EGoM) on food, headed by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee is likely to meet on November 21 for considering a proposal to allow sugar exports for this marketing year that started last month, too failed to prop up shares from the sugar industry as shares of companies including Shree Renuka, Balrampur Chini, Bajaj Hindusthan plunged in the session.
Earlier on Dalal Street, the benchmark got off to a quiet opening since sentiments remained cautious following the pessimism prevailing in Asian markets. Thereafter, the bourses failed to capitalize on the early momentum and kept see-sawing around the neutral line in an extremely tight range for most part of the day. However, the key gauges suffered a setback in the last leg of trade as sudden bouts of profit booking emerged in the local markets following the somberness prevailing in  European markets, post which the indices could not stage any kind of recovery and extended the sorrow of closing in the negative territory for the sixth straight session. Eventually the NSE's 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, plummeted by close to two percent to settle below the crucial 4,950 support level while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index Sensex deposed over three hundred points and closed below the psychological 16,500 mark. Moreover, the broader markets continued bearing the brunt of hefty position squaring and suffered nasty lacerations of over a percent but outperformed their larger peers. On the BSE sectoral space, the Oil & Gas index remained the top laggard in the space and got heavily pulverized by over three percent after heavyweight RIL nosedived by a massive over four and half a percent. The Power and Metal pockets too went home with huge cuts of around two and half a percent. Though there appeared no gainer in the sectoral space thanks to the across the board sell-off however, individual stocks like Hero Moto and drug makers like Cipla and Sun Pharma went home with some gains. The markets declined on large volumes of close to Rs 1.9 lakh crore while the turnover for NSE F&O segment were on the higher side as compared to Wednesday at over 1.73 lakh core. The market breadth remained abysmal as there were 899 shares on the gaining side against 1937 shares on the losing side while 106 shares remained unchanged.
Finally, the BSE Sensex plunged by 314.16 points or 1.87% to settle at 16,461.71, while the S&P CNX Nifty shaved off 95.70 points or 1.90% to close 4,934.75.
The BSE Sensex touched a high and a low of 16,807.15 and 16,408.50 respectively. The BSE Mid cap and Small cap index down by 1.30% and 1.15% respectively.
The major gainers on the Sensex were Hero MotoCorp up 0.71%, Cipla up 0.42% and Sun Pharma up 0.25%. While, Jaiprakash Associates down 6.49%, Reliance down 4.51%, Maruti Suzuki down 4.44%, BHEL down 4.37% and Sterlite Industries down 4.02% were the major losers on the index.
There were no gainer on the BSE sectoral space. While Oil & Gas down 3.39%, Power down 2.86%, Metal down 2.48%, Realty down 2.40% and Capital Goods (CG) down 2.19% were the major losers on the BSE sectoral space.
Meanwhile, India's weekly food inflation measured by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), despite easing for the second consecutive week at 10.63% for week ended on November 05 compared to 11.81% in the last week, remained in double digits. This decline in food inflation came even after the prices of agricultural items, barring onions and wheat, continued to rise on an annual basis.
According to the data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the index for 'Food Articles' group declined by 0.9% to 199.8 (Provisional) from 201.7 (Provisional) for the previous week due to  lower prices of fish-inland (5%), masur (4%), poultry chicken (3%), fruits and vegetables (2%) and ragi, urad, maize, gram, wheat and condiments & spices (1% each).  However, the prices of bajra (3%), jowar (2%) and tea (1%) moved up.
Even the index for 'Non-Food Articles' group declined by 0.9% to 175.9 (Provisional) from 177.5 (Provisional) for the previous week due to lower prices of logs and timber (17%), mesta (10%), flowers (6%), raw rubber and rape and mustard seed (3% each) and raw jute (2%). However, the prices of castor seed (5%), sunflower (2%) and soyabean, linseed and gaur seed (1% each) moved up.
As a result the index for 'Primary Articles' which accounts for 20.12% of the WPI declined by 0.8% to 203.0 (Provisional) from 204.7 (Provisional) for the previous week. The annual rate of inflation, calculated on point to point basis, stood at 10.39% (Provisional) for the week ended November 05, 2011 as compared to 11.43% (Provisional) for the previous week.
Meanwhile, the index for 'Fuel and Power' group, which accounts for 14.91% of WPI, rose by 1% to 171.5 (Provisional) from 169.8 (Provisional) for the previous week due to higher prices of aviation turbine fuel (6%), furnace oil (5%), naphtha (4%) and light diesel oil and petrol (3% each).
Concerned over the inflationary spiral, the government said, it is taking steps to remove supply bottlenecks and expects prices to ease from December. 'We are taking care to remove the supply constraints and I do hope from the month of December, inflation pressure would be moderate,' Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said.
Headline inflation, which also factors in manufactured items, has been above the 9 percent-mark since December, 2010. It stood at 9.73% in September this year. The RBI has hiked interest rates 13 times since March, 2010, to tame demand and curb inflation.The S&P CNX Nifty touched a high and low of 5,036.80 and 4,919.45 respectively.
The top gainers on the Nifty were Reliance Infra up 1.14%, Hero MotoCorp up 0.94%, Sun Pharma up 0.73%, Cipla up 0.18% and TCS up 0.07%. On the flip side, JP Associate down 6.43%, Ranbaxy down 5.29%, Sesa Goa down 4.90%, Reliance down 4.85% and Maruti Suzuki down 4.68% were the top losers on the index.
The European markets were trading in red. France's CAC 40 down 1.56%, Britain's FTSE 100 down by 1.14%, and Germany's DAX down by 0.67%.
Turmoil of Asian region continued for yet another session and most of the Asian peers witnessed downfall on Thursday after two ratings agencies sounded alarm bells over the potential impact of the Euro zone debt crisis on major banks. However, most of the Asian equity indices pared their earlier losses, with some indexes finished in the positive territory. Meanwhile, Fitch ratings agency warned that the contagion effects on US banks were "potentially large" if the crisis spreads beyond Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. It pointed to the risks in France, where banks are being weakened by their own Euro zone exposure, while Paris is trimming spends to avert loss of AAA credit rating.
Hong Kong shares fell for a third-straight session on Thursday, with mainland property names among the hardest hit in weak turnover. However, Nikkei edged higher in the trade ahead of data which could showed the US economy is weathering Europe's debt storm, but the 8,500 level remained elusive amid fears of what news might come next out of the Euro zone.

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