Wednesday, December 21, 2011

BOUNCE

After five straight sessions of horrendous performances, Indian benchmark equity indices finally showed some enthusiasm as market bulls eagerly waited for some significant upside triggers to cover the huge pile of short positions that got build up in the recent past. The frontline indices registered colossal gains of around three and half a percent amid tentative improvement in risk appetite of investors who resorted to hefty bottom fishing after the recent brutal risk aversion. The important psychological 4,600 (Nifty) and 15,400 (Sensex) levels proved as strong supports for the key gauges as the indices spurted in the dying hours of trade from those levels and even re-conquered the 4,700 (Nifty) and 15,700 (Sensex) bastions for a brief period. The unexpectedly encouraging US housing market report coupled with easing Euro-zone debt woes boosted sentiments across the globe as most Asian equity indices exhibited optimistic trends while the European markets surged for a third day, as the ECB provided more support to euro-area lenders in long-term loans than economists had predicted. Investors globally rejoiced on getting encouraging economic reports from both sides of Atlantic, as on one hand US housing starts unexpectedly jumped in November while on the other the German business confidence improved in December, alleviating worries of a global economic slowdown. Back home, reports that Moody's reaffirmed India's local and foreign currency bond ratings at Baa3 with a stable outlook, underpinned sentiments. The agency also said that India's rating being considered for an upgrade provided Indian government finances improve, investment climate enhances and infrastructure bottlenecks reduce. However, market-men remained skeptical that the markets may not be able to sustain the optimism as nothing much has changed fundamentally on the domestic front and this might impact local bourses once the global euphoria subsides.
Earlier on Dalal Street, the benchmark got off to a gap-up opening following supportive leads from Asian markets as sentiments in the region got buttressed on the back of jubilant global leads. The frontline indices carried forward the optimistic momentum and kept oscillating in a narrow range through most part of the session. The frontline gauges hit intraday lows in early afternoon trades after which the key gauges witnessed sudden spurt in sentiments which helped the indices to capitalize on the impetus and settle around the highest point of the day, halting the five session declining streak. Eventually, the NSE's 50-share broadly followed index - Nifty garnered a massive around three and half a percentage points to settle at sub 4,700 levels while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index - Sensex amassed whopping over five hundred points and closed below the psychological 15,700 mark. Moreover, the broader markets failed to match the fervor with which their larger peers rallied and only managed gains of about a percent. On the BSE sectoral space, there appeared absolutely no laggards while the beaten down rate sensitive Banking counter remained the top gainer in the space with close to five percent gains while the Oil & Gas pocket too made its presence felt by surging about four percent. The markets jumped on stronger volumes of over Rs 1.57 lakh crore while the turnover for NSE F&O segment too remained on the higher side as compared to Tuesday at over 1.44 lakh crore. The market breadth was optimistic as there were 1,625 shares on the gaining side against 1,119 shares on the losing side while 123 shares remained unchanged.
Finally, the BSE Sensex garnered 510.13 points or 3.36% to settle at 15,685.21, while the S&P CNX Nifty amassed by 148.95 points or 3.28% to close 4,693.15.
The BSE Sensex touched a high and a low of 15,727.31 and 15,377.04 respectively. The BSE Mid cap and Small cap index were up by 1.29% and 0.94% respectively.
The major gainers on the Sensex were ICICI Bank up 7.67%, Bharti Airtel up 6.33%, Tata Power up 6.13%, HDFC Bank up 6.01% and M&M up 6%. While, Sun Pharma down 0.23% was the only loser on the index.
On the BSE sectoral space, Bankex up 4.92%, Consumer Durables up 4.10%, Oil & Gas up 3.72%, TECk up 2.84% and Metal up 2.65% were the major gainers while there were no losers on the BSE sectoral space.
Meanwhile, global credit ratings agency Moody's Investor Service has lifted India's local currency debt rating by one notch to the lowest investment grade, in-line with the foreign currency bond ratings at Baa3 with a stable outlook. The global rating agency highlighted that India's stable outlook indicates Moody's medium-term assessment of Asia's third largest economy's growth, fiscal, and balance of payments outlook, relative to other countries.
The rating agency had earlier rated rupee denominated sovereign debt at the highest junk grade of Ba1 while the foreign currency bond rating remained at Baa3 previously as well.  Though the agency acknowledged the fact that India's economic growth will continue to slow over the next two quarters, however it was convinced that the GDP growth rate for Asia's third largest economy will remain above the average for similarly rated countries.
The US-based Moody's also has not ruled out the chances of upgrading India's credit rating as it said that the rating can be considered for an upgrade provided Indian government finances improve, investment climate enhances and infrastructure bottlenecks reduce. The rating agency has forecasted that India's GDP growth will ease to below 7% in the fiscal year ending March 2012 while it expects the nation's budget deficit to widen to about 7.6% of GDP in the period.
Moody's highlighted that credit strengths that led to stable outlook for India's rating are large, diversified economy, robust medium-term growth prospects and a strong domestic savings pool that aids the financing and refinancing of the government's relatively high debt burden. However, the credit challenges that face the nation are wide and persistent fiscal deficits, a policy process often hamstrung by domestic politics, susceptibility to inflationary pressures, and the limitations that poor social and physical infrastructure place on growth.
The S&P CNX Nifty touched a high and low of 4,707.35 and 4,601.95, respectively.
The top gainers on the Nifty were Sesa Goa up 9.43%, R Com up 9.42%, ICICI Bank up 7.61%, Tata Power up 6.79% and Bharti Airtel up 6.39%. On the flip side, IDFC down 2.23%, HCL Tech down 0.59%, Sun Pharma down 0.19% and Dr Reddy's down 0.06% were the top losers on the index.
The European markets were trading on a positive note. France's CAC 40 rose 0.08%, Britain's FTSE 100 climbed by 0.64% and Germany's DAX surged by 0.97%.
Asian stock markets rose, joining a US and European rally on positive economic data from the United States and Germany and shaking off jitters over the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il. The US Commerce Department reported unexpectedly strong November home starts at their highest level since April 2010 and up 9.3 percent from October.  Investors' confidence also surged after Spain's government borrowing costs fell in a weekly debt auction.
Taiwan Weighted recorded the region's biggest gains, zoomed over four and half a percent to 6,966.48 a day after the government said it will make use of a fund to restrict stock market losses resulting from sliding global markets. However, mainland Chinese stocks surrendered early gains to finish lower on concerns about the nation's slowing economic engine, and as Ping An Insurance Group tumbled on equity-dilution worries after announcing a fund-raising plan.

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