Tuesday, December 13, 2011

SHORT COVERING

Indian stock markets witnessed a startling finish on Tuesday, just when it appeared that the benchmark indices would snap a lackluster session on a sluggish note the indices got an unexpected boost in dying moments of trade, yanking them from the lowest point in the session to the highest point in no time. The frontline gauges showcased a late short covering rally of around two percentage points from the low point of the day which helped them to attain the psychological 4,800 (Nifty) and 16,000 (Sensex) levels. The surprise upsurge in sentiments came a day ahead the government's announcement of monthly WPI inflation data for November which by many is expected to moderate to sub 9% levels from 9.73% in October. The Indian bourses not only managed to halt the recent brutal carnage of last three sessions but also put an end to their streak of underperformance against their global peers as they outclassed all the Asian as well as the European counterparts before closing. Meanwhile the depreciation in rupee value continued to keep investors worried as it slipped to fresh all time lows above the 53.50 mark against a US dollar, hurting importers by making imports costlier. Also Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee rebutted the perception that there is a paralysis in the decision making process of the government while he said that the India's economy has the capacity and resilience to overcome the crisis at hand sooner than later. Moreover, domestic bourses even overlooked the discouraging overnight developments from the European front where global credit ratings agencies Fitch and Moody's said last week's EU summit did little to avert the onerous debt debacle. They also warned to review the ratings of Euro-zone nations as efforts of EU policymakers have not been comprehensive enough to fix the immediate dangers of a significant economic downturn in the Euro-zone.
Earlier on Dalal Street, the benchmark got off to a soft start tracking the pessimistic sentiments prevailing in Asian markets post global credit ratings agencies' warning to review the credit rating of Euro-zone nations. The key indices kept exhibiting side-ways kind of movement through first half of the session, lacking any significant triggers to move either ways. The gauges got dragged to the lowest point in the session in late hours following the European counterparts. However, the markets witnessed a sudden spurt in heavyweights like Reliance, Coal India and some metal stocks in dying moments which ensured that the benchmarks snap the three session declining streak with close to a percent gains. Moreover, the broader markets closed on a pessimistic note with cuts of over half a percent and underperformed their larger peers. On the BSE sectoral space, the Metal pocket showed resilience and remained the top gainer in the space with around two percent gains followed by the Oil & Gas index which surged over a percent on the back of over a percent gains in index heavyweight Reliance Industries. On the flipside, the Consumer Durables and Capital Goods counters remained the only chinks in the armor which settled on a negative note.The markets climbed on weaker volumes of over Rs 1.44 lakh crore while the turnover for NSE F&O segment too remained on the lower side as compared to Monday at over 1.31 lakh crore. The market breadth remained pessimistic as there were 1620 shares on the gaining side against 1105 shares on the losing side while 123 shares remained unchanged.
Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 132.16 points or 0.83% to settle at 16,002.51, while the S&P CNX Nifty rose by 36.00 points or 0.76% to close at 4,800.60.
The BSE Sensex touched a high and a low of 16,079.38 and 15,771.59 respectively. The BSE Mid cap and Small cap index were down by 0.58% and 0.71% respectively.
The top gainers on the Sensex were Hindalco Industries up 4.78%, Jindal Steel up 4.26%, Mahindra & Mahindra up 2.38%, NTPC up 2.18% and Reliance Industries up 2.02%. While, L&T down 1.94%, ONGC down 0.82%, Wipro down 0.60%, ICICI Bank down 0.33% and Maruti Suzuki down 0.30% were the top losers on the index.
The top gainers on the BSE sectoral space were, Metal up 2.00%, Oil & Gas up 1.19%, Auto up 1.04%, Power up 0.92% and FMCG up 0.70%, while Consumer Durables (CD) down by 2.01% and Capital Goods (CG) down 0.77% were the top gainer on the BSE sectoral space. 
Meanwhile, the Indian rupee plunged to an all time low of 53.35 against American dollar after getting a disappointing industrial output data, slowdown in economic activities and concern over ongoing debt crisis in Europe, which may dampen global risk appetite.
The rupee has been under pressure because of the rising import bills and slower export growth, which is expected to enlarge the Current Account Deficit (CAD) to $54 billion by the end of the current financial year.
Today, in early trade the partially convertible rupee was at 53.31/32, which is 17.8% less compared to its year-high in late July. The rupee has closed down 1.5% pm December 12 at 52.84/85. The outlook for Indian rupee, which is also worst performing currency this year, remains bearish.
On the current decline in rupee, experts are of the view that rupee will be in bearish mode because there is demand but no supply and this situation will continue until the global debt crisis is resolved.
India is also experiencing an outflow from the stock market after the government data on December 11 showed October Index of Industrial Production (IIP) decline to -5.1% which lowest since June 2009. And last week government also done downward revision in its growth forecast at the time of slowdown in domestic and global demand.
Traders have the view that if Reserve Bank of India (RBI) does not intervene then rupee may touch 55 per American dollar. Analysts are of the view that India may face its worst financial crisis in decades if it fails to stop decline in rupee, as a result, RBI has difficult task of using its limited reserves to maintain the confidence of foreign investors.
Against to the belief that the RBI has been keeping its hands off the foreign currency market, as per the RBI's Current Statistics data, the RBI intervened in the foreign exchange market in a row selling $943 million in October 2011. And during September it had sold $845 million. However, did not buy any dollars.
The S&P CNX Nifty touched a high and low of 4,824.70 and 4,728.50 respectively.
The top gainers on the Nifty were Hindalco up 6.19%, Grasim up 4.70%, SAIL up 4.01%, Jindal Steel up 3.70% and M&M up 3.20%. On the flip side, Reliance Power down 3.36%, L&T down 1.77%, Reliance Infra down 1.40%, BPCL down 0.86% and Ambuja Cement down 0.82% were the top losers on the index.
The European markets were trading in green. France's CAC 40 gained 0.29%, Britain's FTSE 100 up by 0.44% and Germany's DAX rose by 0.58%.
All the Asian equity indices ended the day's trade in the negative terrain on mounting worries that a deal by European Union leaders to contain the region's debt crisis would not be enough to solve its fiscal woes. The concern, which weighed on the euro, was amplified by warnings from credit ratings agencies over the situation. Ratings agency Standard & Poor's is expected to pass judgement on the agreement this week after putting 15 of 17 euro-member states -- including France and Germany -- on downgrade warning. The agency last week announced the AAA status of the EU itself was on credit watch, citing worsening economic conditions and discord among leaders.
China's main stock index closed down by about two percent as investors warily awaited the outcome of the Chinese central government's secretive annual economic meeting. China's annual policy-setting economic work conference started on Monday and ends on Wednesday. While, Seoul shares ended down 1.9 percent on Tuesday led by fall in refiners, with S-Oil shedding 4.9 percent.

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