Friday, December 23, 2011

MOMENTUM LOST

Indian benchmark indices failed to keep the momentum going for the third session on the last trading day of the week as the relief rally finally petered out ahead of Christmas. The psychological 4,750 (Nifty) and 15,900 (Sensex) levels proved as firm resistance levels for the benchmarks as they witnessed a sharp intraday trend reversal and plunged over a percentage point from around those levels to lowest levels in the session. Investors chose to take profits off the table from Oil & Gas and rate sensitive Banking counters in particular. The Indian bourses not only halted the two session gaining streak but also resumed their streak of underperformance against their global peers as they were outclassed by all the Asian as well as the European counterparts. Sentiments also got dampened by reports that RBI may revise the growth forecast for Asia's third largest economy downward in its third quarter monetary policy review scheduled on January 24, 2012. Meanwhile, an influential brokerage firm CLSA slashed India's GDP growth forecast to 6.7% for the current fiscal year ending March, 2012 from its earlier projection of 7.3%, owing to cyclical deceleration caused by high interest rates, policy inertia and the adverse impact of global headwinds. Domestic investors also shrugged off growing evidence of a rebound in the US economy as reports showed US initial jobless claims fell last week to their lowest in more than 3-1/2 years while consumer sentiment there improved in December to its highest level in six months. Meanwhile, shares of air carriers like SpiceJet and Jet airways spurted on reports that the government may allow the financially stressed segment to import fuel directly. Besides, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee asserted that the government was committed to pushing reforms like PFRDA and foreign investment in retail, and also assured that government would strive to build political consensus on broader issues and hoped the economy would grow by 7.5% this fiscal.
Earlier on Dalal Street, the benchmark got off to an optimistic start following supportive leads from Asian markets and sentiments got bolstered in thin pre-Christmas trade triggered by a slew of encouraging economic reports from the US. The frontline indices kept oscillating in a narrow range through the morning trades. The key gauges showed signs of recovery in early afternoon trades as they gradually crawled towards intraday highs but the indices witnessed sudden bouts of profit booking which dragged the indices to intraday lows by the end of trade and settled with moderate losses. Eventually, the NSE's 50-share broadly followed index - Nifty shed close to half a percentage points to settle above the crucial 4,700 levels while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index - Sensex slipped by seventy five points and closed above the psychological 15,700 mark. Moreover, the broader markets too pared gains in the session but settled on a positive note. On the BSE sectoral space, the beaten down Capital Goods counter remained the top gainer in the space with over half a percent gains while the rate sensitive Auto and Realty pockets closed with marginal gains. On the flipside, the Consumer Durables and Oil & Gas counters remained the top laggards as they settled over a percent loss each. The markets declined on weaker volumes of over Rs 1.42 lakh crore while the turnover for NSE F&O segment too remained on the lower side as compared to Thursday at over 1.30 lakh crore. The market breadth was optimistic as there were 1528 shares on the gaining side against 1194 shares on the losing side while 167 shares remained unchanged.
Finally, the BSE Sensex lost 74.66 points or 0.47% to settle at 15738.70, while the S&P CNX Nifty declined by 19.85 points or 0.42% to close 4,714.00.
The BSE Sensex touched a high and a low of 15,911.23 and 15,671.28 respectively. The BSE Mid cap and Small cap indices were up by 0.07% and 1.07% respectively.
The major gainers on the Sensex were Wipro up 2.17%, BHEL up 1.91%, Hindustan Unilever up 0.83%, Tata Motors up 0.52% and Maruti Suzuki up 0.38%. While, NTPC down 3.27%, DLF down 2.23%, Jaiprakash Associates down 2.01%, Tata Steel down 1.81% and Bajaj Auto down 1.47%, were the major loser on the index.
On the BSE sectoral space, Capital Goods (CG) up 0.66%, Auto up 0.23%, Realty up 0.12% and FMCG up 0.09% were the major gainers while Consumer Durables (CD) down 1.15%, Oil & Gas down 1.05%, Bankex down 1.04%, PSU down 0.65% and Metal 0.42% were the only losers on the BSE sectoral space.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor, Duvvuri Subbarao has said that India's economic growth will probably fail to meet the central bank's GDP target of 7.6% for the fiscal year 2011-12 citing concerns over the domestic macro-economic situation. The governor also was of the belief that RBI may revise the growth forecast for Asia's third largest economy downward in its third quarter monetary policy review meeting scheduled on January 24, 2012.
Subbarao underscored that factors like stubborn inflation and depreciating rupee are serious cause of concerns for the economy's growth. On one hand, the headline (WPI) inflation in the month of November stayed above the uncomfortable 9% levels for the twelfth straight month, despite thirteen interest rate hikes by Indian central bank since March 2010. While on the other, Indian rupee has become the worst performing currency in Asia depreciating over 15% in 2011 against the dollar.
The RBI had revised the GDP growth forecast for 2011-12 to 7.6%, from 8% on October, 2011 while, the government cut its full-year growth target to between 7.25 - 7.75% earlier this month from 9% in February. Meanwhile, an influential brokerage firm CLSA has slashed India's GDP growth forecast to 6.7% for the current fiscal year ending March, 2012 from its earlier projection of 7.3%, owing to cyclical deceleration caused by high interest rates, policy inertia and the adverse impact of global headwinds.  
The S&P CNX Nifty touched a high and low of 4,763.45 and 4,693.20, respectively.
The top gainers on the Nifty were Siemens up 2.35%, BHEL up 2.26%, Grasim up 2.04%, Wipro up 1.92% and Axis Bank up 0.97%. On the flip side, Ranbaxy down 4.12%, NTPC down 3.24%, RCOM down 3.06%, BPCL down 2.73% and IDFC down 2.66% were the top losers on the index.
The European markets were trading on a positive note. France's CAC 40 surged 1.16%, Britain's FTSE 100 soared by 0.67% and Germany's DAX gained by 0.39%.
Sentiments remained bolstered in the Asian region and all the Asian equity indices ended higher as signs that the US economic recovery is gathering pace lifted investor sentiment following better-than-expected economic data on Thursday. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits dropped last week to the lowest level since April 2008, the third week in a row that applications fell. The Conference Board reported that its measure of future economic activity jumped last month, the second straight gain. Investors were also encouraged by an agreement in the US Congress to extend a payroll tax cut for two months.
Credit ratings agency Fitch said it expects growth in Asia's developing economies will slow slightly next year but still expand by a robust 6.8 percent, which should help bolster the region's wealthier nations. Meanwhile, China stocks ended up 0.85%, in line with gains in the Hong Kong market, which rose amid signs of strengthening in the US economy.

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