Friday, June 17, 2011

CAUTIOUS MOOD

Indian markets have made a positive start bucking the global trends and apprehension of extension in the last sessions decline. Though, the gains remain modest and the benchmarks went to touch their neutral line in the first few minutes of trade. Traders are still cautious with the latest global developments and the weak cues of economic recovery. The rate sensitives have made some recovery after the previous sessions drubbing on another rate hike by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). It is almost certain that the RBI's decision to hike key policy rates by 25 basis points will make auto, home and other loans more expensive, as lenders will have choice but to pass on the additional cost to consumers. Today, the IT and Technology stocks are languishing in the red along with the oil & gas sectors that is being pressurized by the decline in heavy weights like ONGC and Reliance Industries. The global jitters are making the Indian software exporters worried.
The BSE Sensex opened at 18,060.17; about 75 points higher compared to its previous closing of 17,985.88, and has touched a high and a low of 18,064.76 and 17,983.69 respectively. The index is currently trading at 18,002.59, up by 16.71 points or 0.09%. There were 25 stocks advancing against 5 declines on the index.
The overall market breadth has made a strong start with 58.27% stocks advancing against 37.77% declines. The broader indices too have made a positive start; the BSE Mid cap and Small cap indices were up by 0.20% and 0.43% respectively. 
The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were, Metal up by 0.98%, CD up by 0.52%, Auto up by 0.50%, Realty up by 0.46% and FMCG was up by 0.40%. While, IT down by 0.64%, TECk down by 0.34%, Oil & Gas down by 0.13%, and PSU down by 0.02% were the top losers on the index.
The gainers on the Sensex were Tata Steel up by 2.82%, Maruti Suzuki up by 1.99%, JP Associates up by 0.98%, DLF was up by 0.69% and HDFC Bank was up by 0.69%.
On the flip side, HDFC down by 1.37%, ONGC down by 1.23%, Infosys was down by 1.09%, RIL was down by 0.74% and NTPC down by 0.65% were the top losers on the index.
Meanwhile, with the domestic inflation persisting at uncomfortable levels, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has furthered its aggressive stance against the rampant inflation and hiked repo rate and reverse repo rate by 25 basis points each to 7.50 per cent and 6.50 per cent respectively, in its mid-quarter policy review. While, the central bank has left cash reserve ratio, which is the amount of funds that banks have to keep with RBI, unchanged at 6 per cent. In the coming months, further increase in policy rates is possible as RBI said it will continue its tight monetary policy as inflation is spreading to non-food segment also, which is a concern. The inflation in the economy is expected to remain at elevated level because of high domestic demand and hovering global oil and commodities prices, given the current situation, central bank expects an upward revision in inflation numbers. Moreover, the headline numbers understate the pressures because fuel prices have yet to reflect global crude prices.
The headline WPI inflation rate was 9.7 per cent in March 2011. In April 2011, it was 8.7 per cent and rose to 9.1 per cent in May 2011. The numbers for April and May 2011 are as yet provisional and, given the recent pattern, these numbers are likely to be revised upwards. Thus, the headline WPI inflation rate remains elevated, consistent with the projections made in the Annual Policy Statement of May 3. The main drivers of WPI inflation in April-May 2011 were non-food primary articles, fuel group and non-food manufactured products. The consumer price inflation for industrial workers (CPI - IW) rose from 8.8 per cent in March 2011 to 9.4 per cent in April 2011.
On liquidity condition it said, "As articulated in the May 3 Policy Statement, the Reserve Bank will continue to maintain liquidity conditions such that neither surplus liquidity dilutes the monetary policy stance nor large deficit chokes off fund flows to productive sectors of the economy".  In its mid quarter policy review RBI observed, recent global macroeconomic developments pose some risk to the growth of domestic economy. Expressing concern over unstable global environment RBI said, "Lead indicators suggests that growth moderated in both advanced economies and emerging market economies (EMEs) under the impact of high oil and other commodity prices, the spillover from the Japanese natural disasters and monetary tightening in EMEs to contain inflationary pressures. Uncertainty about the resolution of the sovereign debt problem in the euro area has increased. These developments increase downside risks to global growth prospects".
The S&P CNX Nifty opened at 5,412.50; about 16 points higher compared to its previous closing of 5,396.75, and has touched a high and a low of 5,421.15 and 5,398.85 respectively.  The index is currently trading at 5,405.75, up by 9.00 points or 0.17%. There were 38 stocks advancing against 12 declines on the index.
The top gainers of the Nifty were Tata Steel up by 2.79%, Maruti Suzuki up by 1.72%, Ambuja Cements up by 1.44%, DLF was up by 0.98% and Sterlite Inds was up by 0.94%.
On the other hand, ONGC was down by 1.17%, Infosys was down by 0.98%, NTPC was down by 0.85%, Grasim was down by 0.84% and TCS down by 0.55% were the major losers on the index.
The Asian markets were trading mixed, Shanghai Composite advanced 9.75 points or 0.37% to 2,674.03, KLSE Composite gained 6.00 points or 0.39% to 1,560.24.
On the other hand, Hang Seng declined by 76.79 points or 0.35%, Jakarta Composite lost 27.68 points or 0.74% to 3,712.79, Nikkei 225 was down by 45.05 points or 0.48% to 9,364.95, Straits Times slipped 5.51 points or 0.18% to 3,013.95, Seoul Composite was down by 27.51 points or 1.34% to 2,019.12 and Taiwan Weighted was flat, down by marginal 0.24 points to 8,654.19.

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