Tuesday, June 14, 2011

MILD GAINS

On a day when the government data showed India's WPI inflation for May unexpectedly accelerated, topping market estimates, domestic investors showed little signs of capitulation and overlooked the gloomy figures shifting focus on speculations that monsoon rains will boost agricultural output. According to the trade ministry data the wholesale-price index rose 9.06% from a year earlier after an 8.66% jump in April, adding to pressure on the central bank to hike interest rates for the 10th time in just 16 months, despite the pace of economic activity showing signs of easing. Expectations are rife that the RBI will take a calibrated approach and hike rates by 25 bps at its mid-quarter monetary policy meeting on Thursday. The sanguine global cues though, offered their helping hand and prevented the downside for the local bourses. The sentiments in Asian markets got a boost after China reported better than estimated industrial output numbers while the European counterparts too traded on an optimistic note. On the domestic front, concerned over the increasing under-recoveries, Oil Minister Jaipal Reddy met Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to push for an early decision on raising diesel and domestic LPG prices. However, concerns that further hike in prices of petroleum products would stoke the inflation to double digits loomed large which limited the upside chances for local equity markets. Meanwhile, the fertilizer stocks gained some traction after reports that the Cabinet note for nutrient-based subsidies on urea has been prepared and after Saumitra Chaudhuri, member of PM's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) stated that the differences with the Department of Fertiliser were ironed out.
The NSE's 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, settled with gains of around one third of a percent at the crucial 5,500 support level while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, Sensex gained around a quarter percent and closed above the psychological 18,300 mark. The broader markets showed some resilience and did not succumb under the pressure of ugly inflation numbers. The midcap index ended with 0.60% gains while the smallcap index rose by 0.30% point. On the sectoral front, it was the Capital Goods counter which topped the BSE sectoral chart with 1.03% gains on the back of 1.30% and 0.91% gains in heavyweights like L&T and BHEL respectively. The other pocket that remained amid the thick of things was the Power, as majors like Crompton Greaves and Torrent Power spurted by 1.74% and 5.76% respectively. Meanwhile, ADA Group companies' shares too garnered some traction in the session with Reliance Infrastructure and Reliance Capital gaining 2.35% and 1.95%. On the other hand, the Consumer Durables pack which settled as top gainer in the last two sessions, languished at the bottom of the table with 1.42% losses with profit booking in top stock Titan by 3.42%, dragging the index into the red terrain. While Oil and Gas sector too settled weak with 0.77% losses since Index heavyweight Reliance Industries extended its downtrend a day after being clobbered by close to two percent after oil regulator Directorate General of Hydrocarbons refused to accredit three natural gas discoveries made by the company at its KG-D 6 block. On the result front, Idea got commended by investors in the session as it surged by 2% on posting encouraging quarterly earnings numbers. The markets consolidated on lower volumes of over Rs 0.87 lakh crore while the turnover for NSE F&O segment also remained on the lower side compared to Monday at over 0.72 lakh crore. Market breadth remained positive as there were 1625 shares on the gaining side against 1204 shares on the losing side while 135 shares remained unchanged.
Finally, the BSE Sensex advanced by 42.63 points or 0.23% to settle at 18,308.66 while the S&P CNX Nifty rose 17.70 points or 0.32% to settle at 5,500.50.
The BSE Sensex touched a high and a low of 18,380.19 and 18,261.11, respectively. The BSE Mid cap and Small cap index were up by 0.60% and 0.37% respectively.
The major gainers on the Sensex were Reliance Infra up 2.35%, Bajaj Auto up 2.26%, Jindal Steel up 1.97%, ICICI Bank up 1.52% and ITC up 1.52%.
On the flip side, Tata Motors down 2.84%, Hindalco Industries down 2.00%, HDFC down 1.42%, RIL down 1.41% and Cipla down 1.09% were the top losers on the index.
The annual rate of inflation, based on monthly WPI, came much higher than the expectation at 9.06% (Provisional) for the month of May, 2011 (over May, 2010) as compared to 8.66% (Provisional) for the previous month and 10.48% during the corresponding month of the previous year. Build up inflation in the financial year so far was 1.47% compared to a buildup of 2.05% in the corresponding period of the previous year.The street was expecting the WPI to be 8.70% in May, up slightly from the previous month on the back of rise in food and fuel prices
The index for Primary Articles group rose by 0.3 percent to 192.1 (Provisional) from 191.6 (Provisional) for the previous month. Meanwhile, the index for 'Food Articles' group rose by 1.6% to 186.5 (Provisional) from 183.5 (Provisional) for the previous month.The  index for 'Non-Food Articles' group declined by 4.4 percent to 184.5 (Provisional) from 192.9  (Provisional) for the previous month. 
The index for Fuel & Power group rose by 0.3 percent to 160.4 (Provisional) from 159.9 (Provisional) for the previous month due to higher prices of lubricants (5%), petrol, light diesel oil and bitumen (4% each), furnace oil and lignite (2% each) and aviation turbine fuel (1%).  However, the prices of coke (6%) declined. Moreover, the index for Manufactured Products group rose by 1.0 percent to 137.2 (Provisional) from 135.8 (Provisional) for the previous month.
 The major gainers on the BSE sectoral space were Capital Goods (CG) up 1.03%, Power up 0.96%, FMCG up 0.86%, Bankex up 0.83% and Realty up 0.65%.
The major losers in the BSE sectoral space were Consumer Durables (CD) down 1.42%, Oil & Gas down 0.77% and Auto down 0.19%.
The S&P CNX Nifty touched high and low of 5,520.15 and 5,484.20, respectively.
The top gainers of the Nifty were Reliance Infra up 2.63%, Axis Bank up 2.38%, Bajaj Auto up 2.30%, Jindal Steel up 2.23% and Reliance Capital up 1.95%.
On the flip side, Tata Motors down 2.89%, IDFC down 2.05%, Hindalco down 2.02%, Cipla down 1.60% and Reliance down 1.53% were the major losers on the index.
India, which is pressing hard for implementation of SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Agreement) in order to achieve full potential of the agreement and to enhance intra SAARC trade flows, has urged the Saarc countries including India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Afghahistan, Nepal and Bhutan to bring down all protectionist trade barriers to achieve regional economies of scale at a much greater pace. Trade ministers from the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries are in Maldives for the fifth ministerial meeting for better implementation of the SAFTA agreement.
Anand Sharma, the Union Minister of Commerce and Industry, underscored that serious attempts are being made to reduce the sensitive list under the trade liberalization program of SAFTA. He also affirmed that the focus should be to bring down the tariff levels for those items which still remain within the sensitive list. He advocated the nations to rapidly break down barriers in key sectors like textiles, pharmaceuticals, infrastructure, electronic goods, automobiles and agriculture.
The Commerce Minister also opined that India would provide $100 million as loan for each of its neighbouring countries to undertake developmental work in basic infrastructure projects and help them develop infrastructure like roads and power. India would extend such development loan through its EXIM bank, interest rates close to LIBOR (London Inter Bank Offer Rate).
Highlighting the multiplying energy needs of the SAARC countries, Sharma advocated for meeting the need to build greater energy security through trans-national electricity grids.  The SAARC region needs to concentrate on all possibilities of cross-border electricity trade which would help in better energy load management as well as energy security in South Asia.
Earlier, during the meeting with Maldives President Mohamed Nasheed at Male, Anand Sharma held wide range of discussions on economic cooperation between the both nations. Sharma outlined the new long-term concessional credit scheme for project exports launched by the Government of India and assured to encourage major Indian companies to participate in infrastructure building in Maldives.
European markets were trading in green. France's CAC 40 gained 0.86%, Britain's FTSE 100 up 0.42% and Germany's DAX surged by 1.58%.
Most of the Asian equity indices finished the day's trade in the positive terrain on Tuesday after China reported better than estimated industrial output numbers. China's industrial production rose 13.3 percent in May, while inflation quickened in line with market forecasts. Chinese index Shanghai Composite rose over one percent however, gains remained capped after Chinese policy makers raised the reserve-requirement ratio for banks by 50 basis points. Moreover, Seoul shares pared earlier falls and ended with a gain of about one and a half percent as battered chemical and auto issues rebounded sharply and a raft of Chinese data too lifted the investors' sentiment.

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