Thursday, June 9, 2011

LACKADAISICAL PERFORMANCE

Indian bourses staged a lackadaisical performance in Thursday's after see-sawing in a narrow band to finally settle in the flat trajectory snapping the second successive day below the neutral line around crucial support levels of 5,500 and 18,400. The tepid close was in line with markets across the globe which once again displayed pathetic performance after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke painted a gloomy picture of the economic recovery in the US while the Beige Book of Fed showed the economy slowed in several US regions for the first time this year. The upsurge in international crude oil prices which sailed beyond $100 a barrel mark on the back of OPEC members' failure to agree on an output hike too played spoilsport for the local markets as it augmented rate hike fears. Meanwhile, a data released by commerce industry showed that India's weekly food inflation numbers rebounded to 9.01% after showing some signs of moderation in the previous week, stoking concerns that the RBI will hike key interest rates for the tenth time since March 2010 in its next rate-setting meeting on June 16. Market participants also remained cautious amid thin trades as they awaited March month's IIP data for further direction, which is scheduled to be released on Friday.
The NSE's 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, was little changed by the end of trade and settled with marginal losses, above the crucial 5,500 support level while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, Sensex took a single digit cut and closed below the psychological 18,400 mark. The broader markets too failed to show any kind of fervor and settled in line with their larger peers. The midcap index ended flat with 0.12% loss while the smallcap index added 0.08% point. On the sectoral front, it was the rate sensitive Auto counter which languished at the bottom of the table with 0.57% losses amid reports that car sales in India rose 7 percent in May, their slowest pace of growth in two years while expectations of further decline are rife as higher fuel prices, interest rates and vehicle costs would hit demand in the world's second-fastest growing vehicle market. Profit booking was also witnessed in defensive sectors like Healthcare and FMCG. While Textile shares too got pulverized in the session after the Orissa Textile Merchants' Association (AOTMA) and Orissa Garments' Association (OGA) protested against the imposition of Value Added Tax (VAT) on textile products in the state. On the other hand, pockets like Consumer Durables, Capital Goods and Power showed some resilience ahead of Friday's factory output data. Stocks like Titan, NTPC, L&T and BHEL surged in the range of 1%-2.50%. While the index heavyweight Reliance Industries too made its presence felt by advancing over half a percent point. Moreover, shares from the fertilizer counter gained a lot of traction in the session after the panel of secretaries chaired by Planning Commission member Saumitra Chaudhuri advised government to immediately increase the price of urea by 10% and totally decontrol the commodity's price from the 2012-13 fiscal. The markets consolidated on weak volumes of over Rs 0.72 lakh crore while the turnover for NSE F&O segment also remained on the lower side compared to Wednesday at over 0.82 lakh crore. Market breadth remained negative as there were 1388 shares on the gaining side against 1402 shares on the losing side while 137 shares remained unchanged.
Finally, the BSE Sensex lost 9.39 points or 0.05% to settle at 18,384.90 while the S&P CNX Nifty declined by 5.80 points or 0.10% to settle at 5,521.05.
The BSE Sensex touched a high and a low of 18,449.64 and 18,327.01, respectively. The BSE Mid cap index was down by 0.12% and Small cap index was up by 0.08%.
The top gainers on the Sensex were NTPC up 1.74%, L&T up 1.27%, BHEL up 0.91%, Reliance up 0.71% and TCS up 0.59%.
On the flip side, JP Association down 1.85%, ONGC down 1.80%, SBI down 1.31%, Hero Honda down 1.29% and Reliance Communication down 1.27% were the top losers on the index.
Meanwhile, despite, the government's expectation of moderation in the prices of food items, India's food inflation rose to a 9 week high of 9.01% for week ended May 28. This soar in food inflation was mainly because of increase in prices of tea, vegetables, fruits, eggs and meat and fish. Food inflation came into single digit in March and since then it was moving in-between 9.50% to 7.47%. Food inflation for week ended May 21 was 8.06 %. Food inflation jumped almost by 1% and this sudden increase by 1% in food inflation is going to increase the concerns of government.
As per the official data, the index of Food Articles group increased by 0.6% to 187.5 (provisional) from 186.3 (provisional), sudden increase of around 1% in food inflation was mainly because of increase in prices of tea which became costlier by 19%. Tea was followed by pork and maize registered (4%), jowar (3%) and milk, egg, urad, barley, poultry chicken and wheat (1% each). However, prices of items like ragi and arhar declined by 2% each and condiments and spices, bajra and masur (1% each) declined.
The index for Non-Food Articles group increased by 0.4 % to 184.0 (Provisional) from 183.3 (Provisional) for the last week because of higher prices of flower (13%), linseed, rape and mustard seed and groundnut seed (2% each) and castor seed and cotton seed (1% each).  However, the prices of raw silk (9%), gingelly seed (5%), sunflower (3%), copra (2%) and fodder, soyabean and raw jute (1% each) declined. Therefore, the primary article index which has 20.12% of weight in wholesale price index (WPI) increased by 0.5% to 192.7 (provisional) from 191.7 (provisional) for last week. The annual rate of inflation calculated on point to point basis, stood at 11.52% for the week ended May 28 as compare to 10.87 of last week.
The index for fuel and power which has weight of 14.91% in WPI has remained unchanged at its last week of 160.1 (provisional). The annual rate of inflation, calculated on point to point basis, stood at 12.46 percent (Provisional) for the week ended May 28, 2011 (over May 29, 2010) as compared to 12.54 percent (Provisional) for the previous week ended May 21, 2011. 
The increase in food inflation figures to two months high come in the series of bad news for the Indian economy.  The GDP expansion of the economy experienced the five quarter low of 7.8% during the 4th Quarter of 2010-11. On the same time, six core industries registered slow growth of 7.2% in April. The slowdown in economy is mainly on account of high inflation and central bank's aggressive monetary policy standing. Headline inflation stood at 8.66% in April, which is higher than RBI's comfort zone and in its mid-quarter policy review it is expected to increase its policy rate to bring it back into its comfort zone.   
The major gainers on the BSE sectoral space were Consumer Durables (CD) up 1.44%, Capital Goods up 0.92%, Power up 0.30%, Realty up 0.10% and FMCG up 0.01%.
The major losers in the BSE sectoral space were Auto down 0.57%, Health Care (HC) down 0.32%, IT down 0.15%, Bankex down 0.14% and TECk down 0.13%.
The S&P CNX Nifty touched high and low of 5,540.10 and 5,502.05, respectively.
The top gainers of the Nifty were SAIL up 1.94%, L&T up 1.66%, NTPC up 1.51%, Axis Bank up 1.43% and BHEL up 1.25%.
On the flip side, Ambuja Cement down 2.13%, JP Associate down 2.09%, BPCL down 2.02%, ONGC down 1.87% and Kotak Bank down 1.57% were the major losers on the index.
European markets were trading in mix. France's CAC 40 slipped by 0.07%, Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.10% and Germany's DAX was up by 0.20%.
All the Asian equity indices barring Nikkei ended the day's trade in the negative terrain on Thursday amid persistent worries about the US and global economic outlook. Chinese index Shanghai Composite remained the major loser among the Asian peers losing over 0.70 percent, with financials and property shares weak, as sentiment was hurt on worries over further monetary policy tightening while, the shortage of liquidity also weighed on the sentiments in the region. Moreover, Jakarta Composite and Seoul Composite too ended the day's trade with a cut of over half a percent in the trade.

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