Tuesday, June 14, 2011

INFLATION WORRIES

Indian equity markets are trading in positive terrain but have lost most of their gains after the announcement of the inflation numbers. Inflation data for May was reported at 9.06% versus 8.66% (MoM). May's primary articles inflation stood at 11.3% versus 12.05% (MoM), manufactured articles inflation at 7.27% versus 6.18% (MoM) while fuel group inflation was at 12.32% versus 13.32% (MoM). May inflation numbers are higher than street expectations leading the markets to wipe out most of their early gains and the Nifty is again below the 5,500 mark. The rise in inflation has firmed the expectation that RBI will go for another rate hike in its upcoming policy review scheduled later in the week. Though, most of the sectors are in the green by now and the broader markets too are trading with gain of about half a percent; there were 1,545 shares on the gaining side against 878 shares on the losing side while 123 shares remained unchanged.
The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 18,309.59 up by 43.56 points or 0.24%. The index has touched a high and low of 18,380.19 and 18,276.78 respectively. There were 22 stocks advancing against 8 declines on the index.
The broader indices were outperforming the benchmark indices; the BSE Mid cap and Small cap indices were up by 0.45% and 0.50% respectively. 
The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were, Realty up by 0.87%, PSU up by 0.85%, CG up by 0.79%, Bankex up by 0.64% and FMCG up by 0.63%. While, CD down by 0.33%, Oil & Gas down by 0.26% and Auto down by 0.11% were the only losers on the index.
The top gainers on the Sensex were Reliance Infra up by 1.99%, Bajaj Auto up by 1.48%, DLF up by 1.46%, ONGC up by 1.39 and Sterlite Industries up by 1.21%.
On the flip side, Tata Motors down by 1.94%, Hindalo Industries down by 1.30%, HDFC down by 1.06%, Reliance Industries down by 0.99% and Cipla down by 0.75% were the top losers on the index.
Meanwhile, exporters received a major relief with the government deciding to extend the benefits under the Duty Entitlement Pass Book Scheme (DEPB) by another three months till September 30, as it is still working on an alternative plan. The DEPB scheme, a popular tax refund scheme for exporters that came in force in June 1997, was due to end on June 30, 2011. Finance secretary, Sunil Mitra said that duty drawback would take its place after DEPB is phased out.' We have extended Duty Entitlement Pass Book (DEPB) till September,' finance secretary said. The government has apparently set up a committee that would seek to replace DEPB with the duty drawback scheme.
The objective of the DEPB is to neutralize the incidence of customs duty on the import content of the export product. The neutralization is provided by way of grant of duty credit against the export product. Planning Commission member Saumitra Choudhury is heading an expert panel to work out the duty drawback rates for all export products. Exports under the DEPB scheme currently account for a quarter of the total exports, of which engineering, textiles and chemical sectors constitute nearly 70 percent.
The government had lost revenue of around Rs 8,000 crore under the DEPB scheme, said finance and revenue secretary and the scheme is also considered to be against the World Trade Organization rules, as it is a direct subsidy.
The 14-year DEPB scheme is extremely popular among exporters, covering nearly 52 percent of exports. The duty drawback, which reimburses the customs duty component, covers 15-20 percent of exports. Some major beneficiaries are engineering products, chemicals, plastics, leather, sports goods, food products, handicrafts, electronics and textiles. Steel Authority of India, Bajaj, Reliance Industries and Tata Steel are some companies getting huge benefits under the scheme.
The main difference between DEPB and the duty drawback schemes is that DEPB is disbursed in the form of DEPB scrip, while the drawback is taken as cash. Further, DEPB is administered by the commerce and industry ministry, while the drawback is administered by the revenue department under the finance ministry.
The S&P CNX Nifty is currently trading at 5,499.50, higher by 16.70 points or 0.30%. The index has touched a high and low of 5,520.15 and 5,484.20 respectively. There were 40 stocks advancing against 10 declines on the index.
The top gainers of the Nifty were Reliance Infra up by 2.13%, Reliance Capital up by 1.81%, DLF up by 1.61%, Dr Reddy and Ranbaxy up by 1.45% each.
Tata Motors down by 1.69%, Hindalco down by 1.47%, RIL down by 1.09%, Cipla down by 1.06% and HDFC down by 1.04% were the major losers on the index.
All the Asian markets were trading in the green; Shanghai Composite added 0.98%, Hang Seng increased 0.35%, KLSE Composite increased 0.20%, Nikkei 225 expanded 1.04%, Straits Times rose 0.11%, Seoul Composite ascended 1.53%, Taiwan Weighted gained 1.33% and Jakarta Composite added 0.03%.

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