Thursday, September 22, 2011

HORRENDOUS SESSION

Thursday's session turned out to be a horrendous session for the Indian benchmarks which disintegrated like a 'house of cards' and went on to breach various key technical levels in the over four percent freefall. The frontline indices which appeared to be on a southbound journey, desperately kept searching for a bottom through the session, but to no avail as the journey only halted with the session's close. The discouraging outcome of US Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting spooked sentiments as it prompted hefty bouts of profit booking across all counters. Apart from Fed's dramatic $2.65 trillion securities portfolio recast plan, its warning that more downside risks are possible to the world's largest economy and the downgrade of three US banks by Moody's, hurt sentiments globally. Reports also indicated that European services and manufacturing growth contracted for the first time in more than two years in September. The session was marred by panic selling in equity bourses across the globe as apart from the twin fears of US recession and a banking crisis brought on by Europe's sovereign debt woes, the disappointing Chinese PMI factory data gave further evidence that the global economy is in bad shape. On the domestic front, market participants even went on to overlook the moderation in food inflation numbers which dropped to 8.84% for the week ended September 10 as compared to 9.47% in the previous week. Meanwhile, Rahul Khullar, Commerce Secretary said that food inflation will come down in another six months, while cost-push inflation will decline by sometime next year. He was of the belief that interest rates are at the top of its cycle and also was hopeful that rates would be down within a year unless something disastrous happens.
Earlier on Dalal Street, the benchmark got off to a gap down opening, in tandem with the somber sentiments prevailing in Asian markets. Thereafter, the frontline indices lost the plot and kept tumbling down the hill without any stoppage. The steep fall turned even acute after the opening of European markets in the noon trades, as one negative report after another from the continent kept creating havoc for the local bourses. The indices barely managed to show signs of stabilizing in the session as the downward drift halted only with the session's close after suffering gargantuan losses. Finally the NSE's 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, suffered a nasty two hundred point laceration to settle below the crucial 4,950 support level while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index Sensex got obliterated by over seven hundred points and closed just above the psychological 16,350 mark. Moreover, the broader markets too failed to show any kind of fervor and settled with large cuts of over three percent. On the sectoral front, the rate sensitive sectors like Realty, Automobile and Banking witnessed brutal assaults as they got clobbered by 5.67%, 3.865 and 3.98% respectively. While counters like metal and oil & gas too suffered severe pounding. There appeared absolutely no gainer either on the BSE sectoral front or among the heavyweight shares. The markets got bludgeoned on extremely large volumes of over Rs 2.01 lakh crore while the turnover for NSE F&O segment too remained higher as compared to Wednesday at over 1.88 lakh crore. The market breadth remained awful as there were 606 shares on the gaining side against 2235 shares on the losing side while 81 shares remained unchanged.
Finally, the BSE Sensex shaved off 704.00 points or 4.13% to settle at 16,361.15, while the S&P CNX Nifty plunged by 209.60 points or 4.08% to close at 4,923.65.
The BSE Sensex touched a high and a low of 16,833.61 and 16,316.03 respectively. The BSE Mid cap and Small cap index was down by 3.10% and 3.14% respectively.
There was no gainer on the Sensex. While, Jaiprakash Associates down 9.33%, DLF down by 7.16%, Sterlite Industries down by 6.82%, Reliance down by 6.16% and Tata Motors down 5.98% were the top losers on the index.
The top losers on the BSE sectoral space were Realty down 5.67%, Metal down 4.34%, Oil & Gas down 4.19%, TECk down 4.10% and Bankex down 3.98%. While, there was no gainer on the BSE sectoral space.
Meanwhile, India's food inflation, measured by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) continued its moderating trend for the third week, and fell below 9% mark after a record of six weeks high level. Inflation slowed to 8.84% for the week ended September 10 from 9.47% in the week ended September 03. This moderation in food inflation has come on the back of decline in prices of onion, potato, vegetables and fruits. However, for the week under observation, the index for fuel and power surged by almost a percent points. The index for Fuel & Power surged to 13.96% in week ended on September 10 from 13.01% in last week.
According to the data released by Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the index for Food Articles group rose by 0.2% to 195.7 (Provisional) from 195.4  (Provisional) for the previous week due to higher prices of poultry chicken (8%), fish-marine (6%), gram and urad (2% each) and egg, tea, barley, fish-inland, arhar and moong (1% each).  However, the prices of maize (4%), jowar and fruits and vegetables (2% each) and bajra, ragi and wheat (1% each) declined.
The index for Non-Food Articles group rose by 0.1% to 185.4 (Provisional) from 185.2 (Provisional) for the previous week due to higher prices of raw cotton (4%), raw jute (2%) and raw silk, gingelly seed, soyabean, copra (coconut) and groundnut seed (1% each). However, the prices of flowers (16%), castor seed (5%) and linseed and gaur seed (1% each) declined. The index for Minerals group declined by 1.4% to 306.3 (Provisional) from 310.8 (Provisional) for the previous week due to lower prices of crude petroleum (3%).
As a result, the index for primary articles group which has the highest weightage of 20.12% in WPI declined by 0.1% to 201.9 (Provisional) from 202.0 (Provisional) for the previous week. The annual rate of inflation, calculated on point to point basis, stood at 12.17% (Provisional) for the week ended September 10 as compared to 13.04% (Provisional) for the previous week.
Meanwhile, the index for Fuel and Power group which has a weightage of 14.91% in WPI, rose by 0.8% to 168.2 (Provisional) from 166.8 (Provisional) for the previous week due to higher prices of electricity (industry) (7%), electricity (agricultural) (6%), electricity (domestic) (4%) and electricity (commercial) and electricity (railway traction) (3% each).
The moderating trend in the weekly food inflation is expected to provide some relief to the government and policy makers. The Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) chairman C Rangarajan on September 21, had stated that the Reserve Bank of India's stance on inflation depends on the inflation scenario in the coming three week. Last week the Reserve Bank of India increased its short term leading and borrowing rates for the 12the time in last 18 months to curb the sticky inflation.
The S&P CNX Nifty touched high and low of 5,059.85 and 4,907.75, respectively.
There was no gainer on the Nifty. On the flip side, JP Associate down 9.81%, RCom down 8.26%, DLF down 7.83%, Sterlite Industries down 7.27% and Reliance down 6.85% were the top losers on the index.
The European markets were trading in the red. France's CAC 40 climbed by 4.78%, Britain's FTSE lost by 4.74%, and Germany's DAX declined by 4.25%.
All the Asian equity indices were butchered during the trade and ended the session on subdued note on Thursday as the US Federal Reserve's latest multi-billion-dollar move to shore up the American economy led to worldwide disappointment. Moreover, weak Chinese data also weighed on market sentiments, as HSBC's preliminary China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI), fell to a two-month low in September, indicating a broadening slowdown in the Chinese economy. Meanwhile, Hong Kong index ended the day's trade with a cut of about five percent, dragged lower by mainland energy and property counters as investors reacted to different policy signals from Beijing. Jakarta Composite remained the major loser among the Asian peers losing about nine percent in the trade as overseas investors cut holdings in riskier assets amid concern global economic growth will slow.

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