Tuesday, September 13, 2011

A VOLATILE SESSION

The Indian markets were unable to make any recovery after plunging in last session and witnessed a volatile day of trade, finally closing in red with marginal losses, extending the declining trend for yet another session. Though, the start was promising and the trade remained firm till noon as Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said the global community can't afford to lose its nerve and will have to deal collectively with the situation. But the indices lost their nerve and catapulted along with the European markets as the debt worries got engorged there. Based on a standard pricing model it was said that Greece has a 98 percent chance of defaulting on its debt in the next five years as Prime Minister George Papandreou fails to reassure investors his country can survive the euro-region crisis. Though, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she won't let Greece go into "uncontrolled insolvency" as politicians try to limit contagion to other euro members. The US Markets though made some late hour recovery overnight to close with modest gains but cautiousness continued prevailing through the global markets on concerns of Euro zone debt crisis becoming contagion.  French banks tumbled amid mounting concern that Greece will default. Italy will seek to raise as much as 7 billion euros, selling bonds today.  However, barring few the majorities of Asian stocks rose, as raw material and energy producers advanced on increased oil and copper prices.
Back home, the local markets got a positive start and moved higher, showing a good pullback after massive sell-off in last session. The reports that Italy was in talks with China's sovereign-wealth fund over a sale of Italian bonds gave some confidence to the investors and boosted the morale back home too. Though, the gloomy IIP numbers announced last day kept haunting the markets. Kaushik Basu, chief economic advisor to the Prime Minister, said that volatility in the IIP numbers is distressing and there is a need to focus on moving average of IIP than the absolute figure. Basu further said that slowdown in growth is expected if the RBI tightens monetary cycle further. The firm trend of the domestic markets continued till the opening of the European markets but as soon the major indices there reversed their gains and entered into red, the local markets too followed the trend and sharp sell-off was witnessed and the benchmarks not only pared all their gain but were dragged down in red, losing another support levels of 16400 (Sensex) 4950 (Nifty).  IT and technology stocks remained on buyers radar after the last sessions drubbing, the metals stocks that have been declining for the last couple of days after the steel ministry lowered demand forecast to 6% from the earlier 12% made in May, too recovered by the end, to close in green. However, the broader indices that were outperforming the benchmarks with quiet a margin, despite losing the momentum managed to close flat. Though, the trade remained volatile on Dalal Street, few individual stocks showed smart moves, the shares of the debt laden edible oil firm K.S.Oil surged on buzz that world's largest commodities trader, Glencore International AG, was evaluating a bid for the company, though the company later made clarification but still went home with gain of 10%, also the low cost airline Spicejet surged on news that Kalanithi Maran, one of the promoter of the company will buy an additional 5% stake in the budget carrier stake at Rs 36-37 per share. However, the day was not good for auto major Tata Motors, which touched its 52 week low, following the resignation of group chief executive officer and managing director Carl-Peter Forster. The total turnover of the markets were slightly higher of over 1.36 lakh crore while the turnover for NSE F&O segment too remained on higher side as compared to Monday at over 1.24 lakh crore. The market breadth was evenly distributed with 1397 shares on the gaining side against 1395 shares on the losing side, while 136 shares remained unchanged.
Finally, the BSE Sensex lost 34.30 points or 0.21% to settle at 16,467.44, while the S&P CNX Nifty slipped by 5.85 points or 0.12% to close at 4,940.95.
The BSE Sensex touched a high and a low of 16,766.19 and 16,374.68 respectively. The BSE Mid cap and Small cap indices were up by 0.03% and 0.01% respectively.
The top gainers on the Sensex were DLF up 1.82%, Jindal steel up 1.74%, Bajaj Auto up 1.52%, Wipro up 1.25%, and Infosys up by 1.21%.
On the flip side, Tata Motors down 4.61%, SBI down 1.56%, Hindustan Unilever down 1.36%, Jaiprakash Associate down 1.31% and Bharti Airtel down 1.23% were the top losers on the index.
The top gainers on the BSE sectoral space were IT up 0.93%, TECk up 0.40%, Oil & Gas up 0.37%, Metal up 0.20% and Power up 0.14%. While, Auto down 0.67%, Health Care (HC) down 0.54%, Consumer Durables (CD) down 0.49%, Bankex  down 0.44% and PSU down 0.35% were the top losers on the BSE sectoral space.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance on September 12, relaxed the norms for the Foreign Institutional Investors (FII), and increased the FII investment limit in the long term corporate bonds in the infrastructure sector in India. 'The government in consultation with the regulators had raised the limit for FII investment in long-term corporate bonds issued by the companies in the infrastructure sector from $5 billion to $25 billion,' a finance ministry statement said. 
In this years' budget, the government had raised the limit of the FII in corporate bonds of duration longer than five years issued by infrastructure companies by $5 billion to $25 billion, with the minimum lock in period of three years. As per the finance ministry statement, the market regulator SEBI is expected to issue the change in norms by October 15.
Now FIIs can invest upto $5 billion in the long term infra bonds which have an initial maturity of five years or more at the time of issue with a residual maturity of one year at the time of first purchase by such investors, with a lock-in period of one year. FIIs can trade theses bonds among themselves but they cannot sell to domestic investors in the lock-in period of one year.
Earlier in August, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) had allowed Qualified Foreign Investors (QFIs) to purchase $3 billion of debt funds that invest in at least five years infra related debt. The remaining $17 billion limit will be available to FIIs for investment in long term infra bonds which have early maturity of five years or more at the time of first issue and residual maturity of three years at the time of first purchase by FIIs, with a lock-in period of three years.
The government is aiming to increase the investment in infra sector by simplifying the norms for foreign investors, as it is aiming to invest around $1 trillion in country's infrastructure sector to maintain the current rate of growth. 'Infrastructure will play a key role in achieving our growth target of 9%. 
The S&P CNX Nifty touched high and low of 5,030.15 and 4,911.05, respectively.
The top gainers of the Nifty were Cairn up 5.09%, Sesa Goa up 2.74%, Kotak Bank up 2.68%, ACC up 2.41% and DLF up 2.10%.
On the flip side, Tata Motors down 4.68%, SBI down 1.90%, Sun Pharma down 1.81%, Cipla down 1.66% and Tata Power down 1.50% were the top losers on the index.
The European markets were trading in red. France's CAC 40 plunged by 1.65%, Britain's FTSE lost 0.61%, and Germany's DAX declined by 0.17%.
Most of the Asian equity indices finished the day's trade in the negative terrain after a good gains in initial trades as optimism over reports that China was in talks to buy huge amounts of Italian bonds were tempered by ongoing concerns about the wider euro-zone debt crisis. Chinese market remained the top loser among the Asian peers, down by over a percent on Tuesday, hit by a slump in global markets due to growing concerns over European's widening debt crisis. However, Japanese Nikkei ended with a gain of about a percent in the trade, aided by bargain hunting while a respite in the euro's fall against the yen too aided the sentiments. Moreover, stock markets in Hong Kong and South Korea remained closed for a holiday.

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