Thursday, September 29, 2011

SHORT COVERING RALLY

The September series futures and options expiry session turned out to be a action-packed event for the domestic frontline indices as they staged a smart intraday come-back and even went ahead to recapture the psychological 5,000 levels for the Nifty while the Sensex settled near to 16,700 levels. Investors remained optimistic as Germany's parliament was expected to approve a proposal to increase the scope and size of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), offering some relief from concerns that deep political divisions are hampering efforts to end the region's debt crisis. Germany's approval of an enhanced rescue fund could go a long way to shore up Europe's defenses against a crisis that has already seen three countries bailed out and stoked talk that Greece will default. Local market participants lacked conviction to cover their shorts in the morning session of trade as disappointing weekly inflation reading weighed on sentiments. India's food and fuel inflation jumped to 9.13% and 14.69% for the week ended September 17 from 8.84% and 13.69% in the previous week, respectively. The inflation continues to remain stubborn, indicating high inflationary pressures on the economy which may prompt the RBI to extend its aggressive monetary tightening measures. But the sanguinity gradually crept-in since afternoon session amid some tentative recovery in investors' morale. Meanwhile, a rebound was also evident in European markets which turned positive after a somber opening while most indices in Asia too settled on a positive note after a weak start. Back home, hefty shorts were covered from the rate sensitive Automobile counter which topped the sectoral gainers chart with over two percent gains. Information technology counter too witnessed hefty buying interests on the back of rupee depreciation which helped boost the IT companies' margins. On the flipside, the Consumer Durables, Capital Goods and Healthcare pockets failed to go home with gains.
Earlier on the Dalal Street, the benchmark got off to a negative opening as the indices drifted below the psychological 4,950 and 16,400 levels in the early moments of trade since investors largely remained influenced by the cautiously pessimistic sentiments prevailing in Asian markets. After trading with moderate cuts through the morning session, the key indices gradually crawled into the green territory. Short covering intensified in late hours of trade which stoked the bourses to the highest point in the session. Finally some profit booking in the dying moments of trade led the bourses snap the session just below the session's highs. The NSE's 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, shut shop after surging over one and half a percent and regained the crucial 5,000 support level while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, or Sensex accumulated over two hundred fifty points to close a tad below the psychological 16,700 mark. The broader markets failed to show any kind of fervor and settled on an uninspiring note, underperforming their larger peers by a fat margin. On the F&O front, the September series expired on a heartening note as the benchmarks garnered over three and half a percent gains, a month after registering the worst series performance since October 2008. On expected lines, markets registered strong volumes of over Rs 2.35 lakh crore on the September series F&O settlement day. The turnover for NSE F&O segment remained on the higher side compared to Wednesday at over 2.27 lakh crore. The market breadth remained pessimistic as there were 1265 shares on the gaining side against 1507 shares on the losing side while 110 shares remained unchanged.
Finally, the BSE Sensex surged 252.02 points or 1.53% to settle at 16,698.07, while the S&P CNX Nifty soared by 69.55 points or 1.41% to close at 5,015.45.
The BSE Sensex touched a high and a low of 16,756.08 and 16,316.66 respectively. The BSE Mid cap and Small cap index were down by 0.16% and 0.11% respectively.
The major gainers on the Sensex were Jaiprakash Associate up 6.29%, Tata Motors up 3.21%, Infosys up 3.04%, HDFC Bank up 2.94% and M&M up 2.39%. While, L&T down 2.47%, Coal India down 1.32%, Sterlite Industries down 1.17%, SBI down 0.94% and Sun Pharma down 0.79% were the top losers on the index.
The top gainers on the BSE sectoral space was Auto up 2.35%, IT up 2.03%, FMCG up 1.82%, Oil & Gas up 1.49% and Bankex up 1.46%. However Consumer Durables (CD) down 1.36%, Capital Goods (CG) down 0.89% and Health Care (HC) down 0.13% were top loser on BSE sectoral space.
Meanwhile, India's weekly food inflation measured by the wholesale price index (WPI), after declining for three consecutive weeks have surged to 9.13% for the week ended September 17 from 8.84% in last week. The increase was due to surge in price of Egg, Meat & Fish, Potato and Pulses. 
According to the data released by Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the index for Food Articles group rose by 0.8% to 197.3 (Provisional) from 195.7  (Provisional) for the previous week due to higher prices of gram (6%), masur, arhar, urad, poultry chicken, condiments & spices and fish-marine (2% each) and fruits & vegetables, maize, jowar and milk (1% each).  However, the prices of barley (4%), coffee (3%) and bajra and ragi (2% each) declined.
The index for Non-Food Articles group declined by 0.3% to 184.8 (Provisional) from 185.4  (Provisional) for the previous week due to lower prices of flowers (15%), soyabean (7%), groundnut seed and raw jute (3% each) and gingelly seed (1%).  However, the prices of raw silk (7%), raw cotton (4%), raw rubber (2%) and fodder, mesta, copra (coconut) and linseed (1% each) moved up.
The index for 'Minerals' group declined by 0.9% to 303.6 (Provisional) from 306.3 (Provisional) for the previous week due to lower prices of copper ore (15%), chromite (10%), bauxite (7%) and barytes (4%).  However, the prices of magnesite (14%), zinc concentrate (11%), sillimanite (7%), steatite (6%), dolomite (3%) and iron ore (2%) moved up.
As a result, the index for primary articles group which has the highest weightage of 20.12% in WPI rose by 0.4 % to 202.7 (Provisional) from 201.9 (Provisional) for the previous week. The annual rate of inflation, calculated on point to point basis, stood at 11.43% (Provisional) for the week ended September 17 as compared to 12.17 % (Provisional) for the previous week.
Meanwhile, the index for Fuel and Power group which has a weightage of 14.91% in WPI, rose by 0.7% to 169.4 (Provisional) from 168.2 (Provisional) for the previous week due to higher prices of petrol (5%),  light diesel oil and furnace oil (4% each), naphtha and aviation turbine fuel (3% each) and bitumen (1%).  However, the prices of electricity (industry) (5%) declined. The annual rate of inflation, calculated on point to point basis, stood at 14.69 % (Provisional) for the week ended September 17 as compared to 13.96 % (Provisional) for the previous week.
The surge in weekly food inflation is likely to raise the concern of the government and industry as the Reserve Bank of India has reiterated that the RBI is ready to sacrifice some economic growth in order to control inflation and inflation expectations. In order to control inflation, the RBI since March 2010, has increased its short term lending rates by 350 basis points or 3.5%, as a result, cost of capital has increased significantly, affecting the pace of investment and growth of the economy.
The S&P CNX Nifty touched high and low of 5,034.25 and 4,906.00, respectively.
The top gainers on the Nifty were JP Associate up 7.07%, Kotak Bank up 3.74%, Infosys up 3.23%, Siemens up 3.19%, and BPCL up 3.14%. On the flip side, Sesa Goa down 2.27%, L&T down 2.15%, Reliance Capital down 2.09%, Sterlite Industries down 1.41% and Reliance Infra down 1.24% were the top losers on the index.
The European markets were trading mixed. France's CAC 40 lost 0.16%, Britain's FTSE declined by 0.36%, and Germany's DAX advanced by 0.13%.
Most of the Asian equity indices ended the day's trade in the green on Thursday ahead of an expected vote by Germany's parliament to approve the strengthening of a bailout fund intended to help European countries mired in debt crises. Moreover, recovery in some of the commodities and US stock futures on hopes of progress on Europe's debt debacle too supported the sentiments. The Nikkei average reversed all its initial losses to retake the 8,700 level for the first time in over a week, on a rush of buying in the final half-hour of trade as on hopes of growth on European debt disaster. However, Chinese benchmark Shanghai Composite dropped over a percent on Thursday to a nearly 15-month closing low, weighed down by commodity and construction-related stocks, as weakness in global stock markets reignited growth concerns. While, Hong Kong financial markets and businesses remained shut for the trade.

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