Tuesday, September 6, 2011

SIGNS OF RECOVERY

The domestic markets after losing tracking in early noon trade have once again started crawling back to the north, with the support of positive start by the battered European markets. The S&P CNX Nifty is trading very close to the 5000 mark, though, investors lacking confidence are not going for wholehearted buying, the weakness in other regional peers too are impacting the sentiments back home, also there is no other positive trigger from the domestic front that could take the markets higher. Buying has returned in the auto and oil & gas stocks while, the other rate sensitives' like realty and banking are witnessing sharp cut with no recovery in sight. Global brokerage firm CLSA has said that the rise in inflation numbers support 25 bps hike by the RBI in its mid quarterly policy review on September 16.
The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 16,645.30 down by 68.03 points or 0.41% and has touched a high of  16,675.25 and as low as 16,488.30. There were 11 stocks advancing against 19 declines on the index.
The broader indices too have cut down their losses; the BSE Mid cap index was down by 0.39% while Small cap lost 0.18%.
On the BSE sectoral space, Auto up by 0.70%, Oil & gas up by 0.65% and Capital Goods (CG) up by 0.06% were the only gainers while realty down by 3.12%, Bankex down by 1.33%, TECk down by 0.89%, Metal down by 0.68% and Power down by 0.65% were the top losers.
M&M up by 2.15%, Jindal Steel up by 1.50%, Tata Motors up by 1.45%, Maruti Suzuki up by 1.29% and ONGC up by 1.21% were the major gainers on the Sensex, while DLF down by 5.29%, Sun Pharma down by 2.49%, SBI down by 2.38%, Bharti Airtel down by 2.07% and ICICI Bank down by 1.67% were the major losers on the index.
Meanwhile, keeping India's credit outlook unaltered, the global credit rating agency Moody's has pegged the country's economic growth at 7.5-8% for the current financial year, by quoting that higher domestic interest rates along with current global uncertainties could affect the India's economic expansion in near term.
In Moody's annual sovereign credit update on India, it noted that the cyclical slowdown is unlikely to change its credit outlook of country. 'It expects GDP growth of 7.5-8 per cent in 2011-12 ...Given current global uncertainty, and the continuing transmission of the RBI's tightening over the last year, the risks to both forecasts are on the downside. Although rising domestic interest rates and an uncertain global economic environment could dampen India's near term GDP growth, a cyclical slowdown is unlikely to alter its credit outlook,' the report said.
Credit rating agency's forecast for current financial year is less than the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) and government's projection which is just above the 8%. In 2010-11, Indian economy grew by 8.5% up by half percentage from 8% achieved in 2009-10. However, from last two quarters, it has registered moderation in growth. For April-June 2011 Indian economy grew by 7.7%, which is the lowest in last six quarters. 
However, credit rating agency's estimation for year-end inflation is in the line with RBI, it expects inflation to moderate around 7% by March 2012. 'Moody's expects ... inflation to abate slowly over the course of the year to about 7 per cent ... Should global growth decelerate, the concurrent decline in global commodity prices would alleviate India's inflation problem and likely allow for a pause or even reversal in monetary tightening,' it said.
The report further said that India faces a renewed period of global uncertainty while trying to rebalance its own macro-economic position. Headline inflation has been above 9% since December 2010, while food inflation breached the double-digit mark in mid-August. It also highlighted the concern over investment slowdown in recent months, blamed on rising domestic financing costs as well as policy uncertainty in the wake of recent telecoms related scandals, a major issue that India Inc. has also been citing for bringing about a pause in further rate hikes by the RBI. Since March 2010, the RBI has increased its key policy rates by 11 times to bring inflation under control.
The S&P CNX Nifty is currently trading at 4,997.90, lower by 19.30 points or 0.38% after touching a high of 5,001.10 and a low of 4,942.90. There were 19 stocks advancing against 31 declines on the index.
The top gainers of the Nifty were M&M up 2.89%, Ambuja Cements up by 2.49%, Jindal Steel up by 1.66%, Maruti up by 1.59% and Tata Motors was up by 1.53%.
DLF down by 5.34%, Reliance Infra down by 2.88%, RCom down by 2.78%, Reliance Capital down by 2.69% and SBI down by 2.65% were the major losers on the index.
All the Asian counterparts barring Jakarta were trading in the red; Shanghai Composite was down 0.33%, Hang Seng was down 0.48%, KLSE Composite was 0.28%, Nikkei 225 was down by 2.21%, Straits Times was down by 0.62%, Seoul Composite has lost 1.07% and Taiwan Weighted has plunged by 2.44%.
On the flip side, Jakarta Composite remained the lone gainer, up by 0.26%.
The European indices are trading mostly in green at this point of time, CAC40 was up by 0.70%, DAX 30 was up by 0.76% and FTSE 100 has gained 0.46%.

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