Monday, September 12, 2011

MARKETS TAKE A PLUNGE

Indian equity markets' disappointment got extended to the new week on daunting global cues and dismal domestic economic numbers. Both the benchmarks were butchered in the trade breaching their crucial support levels. The markets that met a gap-down start tracking the plunge in US markets followed by Asian peers, witnessed a sharp selling pressure during the mid of the day after industrial production data came to a dismal low of 3.3%, lower to general expectation of 6.6% and much below 9.9% in the year ago period. However, the blessing in disguise can be the rate sensitives that now can expect that the Reserve Bank would not go for another rate hike in near future as it will further suppress the industrial growth. Though, it was red all over the Dalal Street but the maximum pounding was witnessed at CD, metal, IT, realty, banking and technology counters, all of them whom lost over 3 percent for the day.  However, it was the global rout that started with the US and European markets which lost severely on Friday after European Central Bank's top economist quit and Germany was reportedly seen preparing to safeguard its banks against a possible default. The news weighed heavily on the investors sentiments and they went for panic selling. The Asian markets followed the trend and most of the markets witnessed sharp cut of 2-4 percent.
Back home, the domestic markets made a dismal start and within minutes both the benchmarks slipped from their crucial levels of 16600 (Sensex) and 5000 (Nifty) though the trade seemed stabilizing at those levels and some buying too was witnessed but then was declared the IIP numbers for the July and it came much below than expected and brought sudden sell-off in the markets, panic selling was further propelled by the extremely weak start of the European markets and the global economic worries once again came on fore, coupled with domestic economic disappointments. The dismal performance of capital goods sector in the industrial output data weighed heavily on the stocks in the sector.Capital goods industry grew (-15.2%)  in July against 37.7% in the previous month, most of the stocks in the index were down by 1-5 percent, with Punj Lloyd, Thermax and Alstom projects losing over 4 percent each. One stock that prevented the index being in the top laggards was Pipavav Shipyard, which moved by over 11 percent after the company announced its plans to build submarines and warships by forming a joint venture with Mazgaon Dock. Meanwhile the IT and technology stocks remained under intense selling pressure from the very beginning with the uncertainties in the European markets, while metal too lost sharply tracking the decline in global peers and all the companies lost considerably despite monitoring committee constituted by the Supreme Court deciding to conduct e-auction on September 14 to enable iron and allied industries to buy iron ore stockpile lying at various mines in Karnataka. None of the sectoral gauges was spared of pounding, only the defensive sectors FMCG and healthcare were able to avert major fall. The beaten down non sectoral gauge of last session-- cement-- showed some recovery today. The broader indices too performed dismally, losing around 2 percent for the day. Sensex plunged by over 350 points while the Nifty losses too went over three digits. The total turnover of the markets were higher of over 1.35 lakh crore while the turnover for NSE F&O segment too remained on higher side as compared to Friday at over 1.23 lakh crore. The market breadth was extremely weak with just 875 shares on the gaining side against 1929 shares on the losing side while 103 shares remained unchanged.
Finally, the BSE Sensex shaved off 365.23 points or 2.17% to settle at 16,501.74, while the S&P CNX Nifty plunged by 112.65 points or 2.23% to close at 4,946.80.
The BSE Sensex touched a high and a low of 16,668.25 and 16,393.04 respectively. The BSE Mid cap and Small cap indices were down by 1.84% and 1.86% respectively.
The top gainers on the Sensex were Hindustan Unilever up 3.80%, Cipla up by 1.41%, Sun Pharma up by 1.24%.
On the flip side, Hindalco Industries down 4.76%, Tata Steel down 4.63%, Wipro down 4.56%, SBI down 4.39% and Tata Motors down 4.14% were the top losers on the index.
There was no gainer on the BSE sectoral space. While, Consumer Durables (CD) down 3.43%, Metal down 3.39%, IT down 3.27%, Reality down 3.13% and TECk down 3.12% were the top losers on the BSE sectoral space.
Meanwhile, the industrial growth for the month of July plunged to 21-month lowest level, on the back of significant decline in manufacturing and mining segment. India's industrial production measured by Index of Industrial Production (IIP), declined to 3.3% in July 2011 from 9.9% in July 2010. This 6.6% decline in industrial output is because of huge decline in manufacturing (2.3%) and mining (2.8%) sectors. However, electricity segment surged to 13.1% in July 2011 from 3.7% in July 2010.
The industrial growth in April-July 2011 stood at 5.8% from 9.7% in the April-July 2010. In the same period, the manufacturing sector which accounts for 75% of IIP stood at 6% from 10.5% in the April-July 2010. The mining segment also witnessed moderation in growth in April-July 2011. It stood at 1.1% compared to 8.2% in April-July 2010. However, electricity segment surged to 9.4% in April-July 2011 from 5% the same period of last fiscal year.
According to data released by the Central Statistics Office of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, the General Index for the month of July 2011 stood at 166.6, which is 3.3% higher as compared to the level in the month of July 2010. The cumulative growth for the period April-July 2011-12 stands at 5.8% over the corresponding period of the previous year.
The indices of IIP for the Mining, Manufacturing and Electricity sectors for the month of July 2011 stands at 126.7, 176.0 and 152.1 respectively, with the corresponding growth rates of 2.8%, 2.3% and 13.1% as compared to July 2010. The cumulative  growth in the three sectors during April-July, 2011-12 over the corresponding period of 2010-11 have been 1.1%, 6.0% and 9.4% respectively, which moved the overall growth in the General Index to 5.8%.
In July 2011, in term of industries, 15 out of the 22 industry groups in the manufacturing sector have shown positive growth during the month of July 2011 as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year. The industry group 'Office, accounting and computing machinery' has shown the highest growth of 38.3%, followed by 18.9% in 'Basic metals' and 17.5% in 'Other transport equipment'. On the other hand, the industry group 'Electrical machinery and apparatus n.e.c.' has shown a negative growth of 46.0% followed by 12.5% in 'Medical, precision and optical instruments, watches and clocks.'
As per Use-based classification, the growth rates in July 2011 over July 2010 are 10.1% in Basic goods, (-) 15.2% in Capital goods and (-) 1.1% in Intermediate goods. The Consumer durables and Consumer non-durables have recorded growth of 8.6% and 4.1% respectively, with the overall growth in Consumer goods being 6.2%.
Some of the important items of capital goods showing highly negative growth during the current month and thus contributing to the low growth of the overall index for the month include cable, rubber insulated [(-) 64.9%], cement machinery [(-) 62.8%] and UPS/inverter/converter [(-) 55.9%]. However, some important items of the Capital goods are also showing significant positive growth. These are computers (47.1%), textile machinery (36.0%), ship building & repairs (34.9%), machine tools (31.6%), tractors (24.6%) and commercial vehicles (21.8%).
The other important items showing positive growth during the month are; woollen carpets (171.9%), molasses (88.9%), stainless/ alloy steel (63.0%), fruit pulp (54.1%), GP/GC sheets (50.6%), aluminium (43.6%), steel castings (42.4%) and CR sheets (40.0%). 
India's industrial growth in July plunged to its lowest since November 2009, and this 21-month fall in industrial growth was driven by manufacturing sector which, slumped to its lowest level, since October 2009. This huge moderation in manufacturing sector is viewed as the adverse effect of the nonstop hike in Reserve Bank of India's key policy rates, which led to increase in cost of capital by increasing interest rates. This moderation in industrial production is likely to put pressure on the RBI to pause in hike. However, due to stubbornly high inflation, the RBI may go for another hike in its mid-quarter review, which is scheduled this Friday.   
The S&P CNX Nifty touched high and low of 4,985.60 and 4,911.25, respectively.
The top gainers of the Nifty were Ambuja Cement up 5.98%, Hindustan Unilever up 3.65%, Sun Pharma up 1.80%, ACC up 0.90% and Cipla up 0.68%.
On the flip side, HCL Tech down 7.64%, Reliance Power down 5.51%, Hindalco down 5.34%, Reliance Infra down 5.17% and IDFC down 5.14% were the top losers on the index.
The European markets were trading in red. France's CAC 40 plunged by 4.76%, Britain's FTSE lost 2.23%, and Germany's DAX declined by 3.02%.
All the Asian equity indices finished the day's trade in the negative terrain on Monday as investors remained concerned over debt worries in Euro-zone. Moreover, the resignation of a top German central bank board member casted further doubt on Europe's ability to tackle its sovereign debt crisis. Hong Kong index remained the biggest loser tumbled over four percent as Hong Kong-listed shares of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the world's biggest bank by market value, crumbled 4.9 percent while, China Overseas Land & Investment, a blue chip property developer, plummeted 8.5 percent. However, stock markets in mainland China, Taiwan and South Korea remained closed for a holiday.

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