Friday, May 6, 2011

FALL IN CRUDE PRICES HELPS THE MARKET

The Indian equity markets have made a decent start on the back of sharp fall in crude oil prices while, decline in food inflation for the week ended April 23, too aided the sentiments. However, the global cues continue to remain feeble as the US markets continued their decline overnight dragged by energy and commodities stocks and all the Asian counterparts were trading in the negative terrain at this point of time. Back home, sustained buying in most of the key heavyweights was keeping the momentum on the positive side as investors remained confident after food inflation came at 8.53% during the 12 months ending April 23, compared with a corresponding figure of 8.76% a week ago. NSE's -- Nifty -- was trading comfortably above its crucial 5,500 mark. On the sectoral front, banking, auto and software stocks were witnessing maximum gains in the trade, while metal remained the lone loser on the BSE sectoral space. The broader indices too were trading in the green. Moreover, PSU oil marketing companies viz., Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) were trading with a gain in the range of 3-4% as crude oil plunged below $99 a barrel, its lowest trade since March 18. The market breadth on the BSE was positive; there were 1,034 shares on the gaining side against 541 shares on the losing side while 44 shares remained unchanged.
The BSE Sensex opened at 18,289.78; about 79 points higher compared to its previous closing of 18,210.58, and has touched a high and a low of 18,402.46 and 18,281.50, respectively.The index is currently trading at 18,385.08, up by 174.50 points or 0.96%. There were 23 stocks advancing against 7 declines on the index.
The overall market breadth has made a positive start with 63.87% stocks advancing against 33.42% declines. The broader indices too were trading in the green; the BSE Mid cap and Small cap indices were up 0.51% and 0.60% respectively. 
The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were, Bankex up by 2.07%, Auto up by 1.30%, IT up by 1.11%, CG up by 0.92% and PSU was up by 0.91%. While, Metal down by 0.35% was the lone loser on the index.
The top gainers on the Sensex were ICICI Bank up by 3.55%, Tata Motors up by 2.23%, M&M up by 2.04%, Jaiprakash Associates up by 1.84% and Bajaj Auto up by 1.69%.
Sterlite Industries down by 3.26%, Hindalco down by 1.96%, Cipla down by 0.89%, Hero Honda down by 0.82% and Bharti Airtel down by 0.59%, were the top losers on the index.
Meanwhile, though a little bit of moderation in inflation for the week ended April 23 could bring some respite to the government and Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the fact that it still stands at 8.53% may force the apex bank to take tough stance on the issue. RBI, which on Tuesday raised the key policy rates -- repo rate and reverse repo rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 7.25% and 6.25%, respectively and kept the cash reserve ratio (CRR) unchanged at 6%, has said that it will watch the liquidity situation for the next three to four months for taking any decision regarding increasing the CRR (amount of funds that banks have to keep with RBI).
The apex bank had last raised the CRR by 25 bps in April 2010 and though the bank raised the repo and reverse repo rates several times after that, it has kept the CRR untouched as it may jeopardize the growth of the economy. But since the inflation has become a core concern and shows little signs of coming down, the RBI chief has said that bringing inflation down, even at the cost of some growth in the short-run, should take precedence.
Hence, the RBI will be keenly watching the impact of fuel price hike, if approved by the ministerial panel which will be meeting on May 11 this month and the situation in the Middle East and North Africa for the outlook of crude oil prices in the near future for further decision making. Further, other factors such as prices of several important industrial raw materials such as minerals, fibres, rubber and coal, and the behavior of the monsoon will also play a major role in any significant policy change.
The S&P CNX Nifty opened at 5,477.65; about 18 points higher compared to its previous closing of 5,459.85, and has touched a high and a low of 5,516.40 and 5,477.55 respectively.
The index is currently trading at 5,507.10, up by 47.25 points or 0.87%. There were 39 stocks advancing against 11 declines on the index.
The top gainers of the Nifty were ICICI Bank up by 3.60%, BPCL up by 3.15%, Axis Bank up by 2.38%, Tata Motors up by 2.24% and M&M up by 1.99%.
The top losers of the index were Sterlite Industries down by 2.85%, Hindalco down by 2.01%, Cairn down by 1.85%, Ranbaxy down by 1.82% and Sesa Goa was down by 1.46%.
All the Asian peers were trading in the red; Shanghai Composite was down 6.64 points or 0.23% to 2,865.76, Hang Seng was down 138.47 points or 0.60% to 23,123.14, Jakarta Composite was down 18.45 points or 0.48% to 3,797.82, KLSE Composite was down 7.06 points or 0.46% to 1,514.12, Nikkei 225 was down 169.41 points or 1.69% to 9,834.79, Straits Times was down 16.03 points or 0.52% to 3,093.82, Seoul Composite was down 44.34 points or 2.03% to 2,136.30 and Taiwan Weighted was down by 35.27 points or 0.39% to 8,983.34

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