Thursday, May 26, 2011

SHORT COVERING

The May series Futures and Options contract settlement turned out to be encouraging event for the Indian frontline indices which made an elegant intraday U-turn in the last hour of trade snapping the session with strong gains of a percentage point. The late short covering rally in Oil and Gas counter on reports that the empowered group of ministers (EGoM) on the oil sector is likely to meet on June 9 to deliberate on the issue of raising domestic prices of retail fuels including diesel, cooking gas and kerosene gave the much needed fillip in the dying hours of trade. Oil upstream company ONGC remained the best performer not only for the oil and gas index but for the benchmarks as well, since it spurted by 4.44% after the reports that its subsidy sharing burden will reduce after the government hikes diesel and cooking fuel prices. The better than expected earnings announcement by Tata Steel, the nation's biggest producer of the alloy, Coal India, the world's biggest producer of the fuel and Cairn India the energy explorer went down well with the local investors who commended the stocks' performance as they surged in the range of 1.50% to 3.50% by the end of session. The bourses also got filliped after index heavyweight Reliance Industries jumped by close to 3% on reports that government may allow RIL to charge market prices for natural gas sold to users other than fertilizer, power and for use in homes. Auto heavyweight Tata Motors too garnered around 2.45% ahead of its quarterly earnings announcement. Meanwhile, stocks of Subhash Chandra owned ZEE Entertainment zoomed by over two percent after the official announcement to form a 50:50 joint venture for distributing channels with Rupert Murdoch's Star India, 12 years after they parted ways. In the meantime investors also went ahead to overlook the weak inflation data which showed that food inflation surged to the highest level in four weeks at 8.55% for the week ended May 14. While the overnight surge in crude oil prices too failed to spook the investor's morale as hefty bottom fishing in fundamentally strong and undervalued stocks amid a firming trend in other Asian bourses capped the downside risks. Back home, the NSE's 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, shut shop with around a percent gain after recapturing the crucial 5,400 support level while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, Sensex fell just short of hitting a double century and closed above the psychological 18,000 mark. By the end of trade, the broader markets managed to raise the head above the neutral line but underperformed their larger peers by a large margin. The midcap index was up 0.14%, while the smallcap index was up by 0.46%. On the sectoral front, the Oil and Gas stocks garnered the maximum traction and settled after spurting by 2.90% after majors like ONGC and RIL accumulated 4.44%, and 2.92% respectively. The Metal pocket too remained amid the thick of things as it amassed 1.50% after majors like Tata Steel and Sterlite soared by 1.98% and 3.45% respectively. On the other hand the consumer durables pocket languished at the bottom of the table with 0.78% losses after majors like Titan Industries and Blue Star slipped by 2.60% and 1.87%, respectively.
On the global front, majority of the Asian equity indices settled in the green zone with South Korean benchmark grabbing the top gainer's position after surging well over two and half a percent point as Credit Suisse Group AG and Citigroup Inc. predicted the nation's stocks will rise on improving earnings and attractive valuations. The European equities are trading on a mixed note as France's CAC advanced 0.20%, Britain's FTSE 100 climbed 0.45% and Germany's DAX slipped 0.29%. On the other hand, the screen trading for US index futures too indicated that the Dow could open on a positive note.
Earlier on Dalal Street, the benchmark got off to an optimistic start in line with the sanguine trends that prevailed in most Asian markets as investors in the region largely were influenced by the overnight Wall Street which rose on the back of surge in commodities, indicating that the global recovery is still intact. After the positive opening the frontline indices managed to capitalize on the initial momentum and soon bounced to test the psychological 5,400 and 18,000 levels, which proved as a stern resistance for the indices. The indices gradually kept losing steam through the late morning session. However, the late short covering rally in the last half an hour of the session largely in oil and gas stocks helped the benchmarks to showcase a scintillating bounce back and pierce the psychological 5,400 and 18,000 levels by the end of session. Eventually the May series F&O series expired on a dismal note after being decimated by around six and a half percent points. On expected lines, markets registered strong volumes of over Rs 2.29 lakh crore on the May series F&O settlement day. The turnover for NSE F&O segment remained on the higher side compared to Wednesday at over 2.12 lakh crore. Market breadth remained positive as there were 1496 shares on the gaining side against 1275 shares on the losing side while 125 shares remained unchanged.
Finally, the BSE Sensex surged by 197.40 points or 1.11% to settle at 18,044.64 while the S&P CNX Nifty soared 63.40 points or 1.19% to settle at 5,412.35.
The BSE Sensex touched a high and a low of 18,072.61 and 17,862.88, respectively. The BSE Mid cap and Small cap index up 0.14% and 0.46% respectively.
The top gainers on the Sensex were ONGC up 4.44%, Hero Honda up 3.97%, Sterlite Industries up 3.45%, DLF up 2.95% and Reliance Industries up 2.92%.
On the flip side, ITC down 1.08%, Infosys down 0.56%, HDFC down 0.26%, Reliance Communication down 0.25% and Bharti Airtel down 0.24% were the major losers on the index.
Food inflation surged to the highest level in four weeks at 8.55% for the week ended May 14, as prices of fruits, cereals and protein-based items escalated. During the week ended May 14, cereals became costlier by 5.03% year-on-year and prices of onions were up by 8.32%. Moreover, prices of fruit rose by 32.37%, milk by 5.53% and eggs, meat and fish by 8.26%. Meanwhile, though the Index for 'non-food articles' group has declined marginally but the government and Reserve Bank had said that in the months to come, inflationary pressure would be more from core (non-food) items on account of high global prices of commodities, particularly crude.
According to the data released by the ministry of commerce and industry on Thursday, food price index rose 8.55% on annual basis during week-ended May 14, picking up pace from an annual rise of 7.47% recorded in the previous week. Food inflation was at 21.55% in the year-ago period. Meanwhile, the food prices index jumped by 0.6% to 186.7 from 185.5 during the previous week due to higher prices of poultry chicken (5%), jowar (4%), fish-marine (3%), mutton, barley and maize (2% each) and milk (1%). However, the prices of tea (5%), arhar and ragi (2% each) and masur and urad (1% each) declined.
The index for 'non-food articles' group declined by 0.2% to 185.2 compared with 185.6 for the previous week. As a result, the broader 'primary articles' index, which has a weight of 20.12% in the overall wholesale price index (WPI) registered an increase of 0.04% to 192.4 from 191.7 seen in the previous week. The annual rate of inflation, calculated on point to point basis, for this group stood at 11.60% for the week ended May 14 as compared with 10.94% in the previous week.
The index for 'fuel and power' with a weight of 14.91% in overall WPI remained unchanged at its previous week's level of 160.01%. The annual rate of inflation for this group, calculated on point to point basis, also remained unchanged at 12.11%.
Though, the Food Inflation data has shot up on week on week basis, but the weekly food inflation has slowed from the double-digit rise for much of 2010. However, the headline inflation at 8.66 percent in April remains considerably above the central bank's comfort level, thereby pressurizing it to continue its rate hike policy.
The top gainers on the BSE sectoral space were Oil & Gas up 2.90%, Metal up 1.50%, Auto up 1.49%, PSU up 1.32%, and Realty up 1.24%.
On the flip side, Consumer Durables (CD) down 0.78%, IT down 0.19%, TECk down 0.12% and FMCG down 0.07% were the only losers in the BSE sectoral space.
With the prices of cotton showing little signs of rebounding due to excessive supply compared to the domestic demand and also because of restrictions in cotton exports, the government is now expected to lift the quantitative restrictions limit imposed on cotton exports, in order to stabilize the dropping prices. Given the pressure from farmers and from the ginning industry, the government is likely to allow cotton exporters to export an additional 1.5 million bales in the current season.
India, the second-biggest cotton exporter after the US, had in October last year permitted the duty-free export of up to 5.5 million bales, a relatively small volume, which has already been exhausted by the exporters. The limit was imposed following the sharp rise in prices of the commodity hitting the domestic textile industry.
However, since the fourth week of March, the situation has changed and prices of the natural fibre have plunged sharply due to piling of fresh stocks and huge carry over stock from the last season and around 45 lakh bales of carry over stock has been lying unsold in the warehouses.
Meanwhile, industry body ASSOCHAM too has called for lifting the ceiling on cotton exports to protect interests of farmers citing the reason that there will be a huge surplus of supply over the domestic demand in the current crop year. With opening stock of the year at 45 lakh bales, the production was estimated by the Cotton Advisory Board at 320 lakh bales, while the domestic consumption was estimated at 240 lakh bales.
The S&P CNX Nifty touched high and low of 5,422.20 and 5,356.35, respectively.
The top gainers of the Nifty were Hero Honda up 4.43%, ONGC up 4.42%, DLF up 4.00%, Sesa Goa up 2.83% and Tata Motors up 2.80%.
On the flip side, Reliance Capital down 3.08%, Powergrid down 1.08%, ITC down 1.06%, ACC down 0.79% and Infosys down 0.52% were the major losers on the index.
European markets were trading mix. France's CAC 40 lower by 0.02%, Britain's FTSE 100 up 0.45%, and Germany's DAX dropped 0.37%.
Most of the Asian markets closed higher on Thursday, barring the Chinese market that closed marginally in red. It was the bounce back in the crude and copper that led the regional indices higher as commodity and material producers inched up. South Korean index Kospi surged the most, up by 2.75 percent, highest since June 2009, as Credit Suisse Group AG and Citigroup Inc. predicted the nation's stocks will rise on improving earnings and attractive valuations. Japanese market too moved higher despite the government reporting that the country's exports fell by 12.5 percent in April. Though, the Chinese markets made a positive start but after a choppy trade closed marginally in red.

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