Tuesday, May 24, 2011

SIDEWAYS CONSOLIDATION PATTERN

Domestic frontline indices went through a choppy session of trade to finally negotiate a close in the green territory, a day after taking a nasty laceration of close to two percent. Markets exhibited sideways consolidation pattern as cautious investors appeared reluctant to pile up positions in large cap stocks and instead, chose to square off positions at every rise. Short covering was witnessed in the heavyweight stocks from the Capital goods, Banking and Oil and Gas pockets a day after the broad based position squaring across the counters on the back of resurfacing Euro-zone debt fears. The local investors also took support from the markets across the globe as most Asian bourses pared initial losses and settled in the green terrain while the European counterparts on the other hand too got off to an optimistic opening and have climbed around half a percent point. The overnight plunge in international crude oil prices too did its bit by offsetting negative sentiment and encouraging local marketmen who withdrew funds amid concern of rising inflationary pressure and interest rates. However, the upside chances for the markets remained capped as concerns of slowing economic growth and inflationary pressure hurt sentiments. Meanwhile, revenue secretary Sunil Mitra too underscored the government's growing worries over meeting its fiscal goals as he opined that tighter monetary policy steps and high crude oil prices pose challenges for India's tax revenue target this fiscal year. He also cautioned that India's economic growth could slow down if the central bank tightens monetary policy further. While uncertainties over foreign fund flows prospects on account of the Europe's sovereign debt woes too weighed down investor's morale. The NSE's 50-share broadly followed index, Nifty failed to cling on to the psychological 5,400 support level and settled with single digit gains while the Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index Sensex too posed marginal gains and ended the day just above the psychological 18,000 level. The broader markets failed to match gain with their larger peers and underperformed them by quite a margin. The midcap index closed on an absolutely flat note while the smallcap index dropped 0.04% points. On the BSE sectoral space, the Capital Goods counter ricocheted after Monday's drubbing and settled with 1.19% gains, being the top gainer in the space. The capital goods majors like L&T and BHEL surged by 1.75% and 0.73% respectively. While the consumer durables index too remained amid the thick of things and gained 0.81% on the back of 1.13% and 2.67% gains in Titan Industries and VIP Industries. On the other hand, FMCG index languished at the bottom of the BSE sectoral space with losses of 0.94% as majors like ITC shed 1.45% and HUL went home with loss of 0.54%. While the profit booking was also witnessed in the high beta Realty index which slipped by 0.58% as stocks like DLF and DB Realty slipped by 1.84% and 8.41% respectively.
On the global front, barring the Chinese benchmark, all Asian equity indices managed to settle in the positive terrain with the South Korean benchmark being the top gainer in the space after gaining around a quarter percent points. The European counterparts too got off to a positive start and are currently climbing higher as France's CAC 40 advanced 0.56%, Germany's DAX garnered 0.70% and London's FTSE 100 amassed 0.53%. On the other hand, the screen trading for US index futures too indicated that the Dow could open on a positive note.
Earlier on Dalal Street, the benchmark got off to a positive opening bucking the weak trends that prevailed in most Asian markets as investors there largely remained influenced by overnight Wall Street which plunged on the back of euro-zone debt worries and on news of slower manufacturing growth in China and Europe. Despite the positive opening the frontline indices failed to show any kind of fervor and seldom traded with conviction at higher levels as investors looked to trim down positions on every small rise. The bourses managed to break the range bound pattern and moved higher in the early noon session but to no avail as hefty bouts of profit booking in FMCG, and rate sensitives' brought the indices to the lowest point of the day by the dying hour. However, late shot covering ensured that the benchmarks eventually finish the second day of F&O expiry week with modest gains, around the crucial support levels. The indices consolidated on higher volumes compared to that on Friday. The market breadth on the BSE was almost flat as only 1316 shares were on the gaining side against 1390 shares on the losing side while 193 shares remained unchanged.
Finally, the BSE Sensex advanced 18.64 points or 0.10% to settle at 18,011.97 while the S&P CNX Nifty added 8.30 points or 0.15% to settle at 5394.85.
The BSE Sensex touched a high and a low of 18,110.39 and 17,933.94, respectively. The BSE Mid cap index was flat, while the Small cap index lost 0.04%.
The top gainers on the Sensex were L&T up 1.75%, Cipla up 1.62%, Hero Honda up 1.33%, ICICI Bank up 1.27% and Tata Steel up 1.24%.
On the flip side, Rel Infra down 1.88%, DLF down 1.84%, ITC down 1.45%, SBI down 1.39% and TCS down 1.07% were the major losers on the index.
Meanwhile, it seems, once much hyped attraction and interest of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) is slowly fading among the industrial houses and promoters in India, there was enormous hurry to set up SEZs across the country after the idea got concretized once the SEZ Act came into force in February 2006. However, apart from land acquisition-related issues the introduction of Minimum Alternate Tax (MAT) to be levied on the developer and occupiers of SEZs, effective this fiscal, seems to be the reason behind the apathy and now around 53 promoters including Parsvnath SEZ, Unitech Realty Projects and Uttam Galva Steels developers have requested more time from the government for completing their project.
Other developers like Reliance Haryana SEZ, NIIT Technologies, Navi Mumbai SEZ , Indiabulls Industrial Infrastructure and Mahindra and Mahindra have also appealed for extra time from the Board of Approval (BoA), headed by Commerce Secretary Rahul Khullar, a 19 member inter ministerial body that look after the SEZs related issues.  In addition to this, 6 promoters have already approached the ministry of commerce for surrendering their projects; these include Maharashtra Industrial Development Corporation for its sector specific SEZ and Satyam Computer Services for its IT/ITeS zone. The promoters and developers who applied for de-notification are giving the rationales like global economic slowdown, problems related to land acquisition and imposition of minimum, alternative tax (MAT) on the development and units.
The 46th meeting of BoA is scheduled to be held on May 31. At its last meeting held on March 25, the board had deferred the decisions on some applications, most of which were from poll-bound states like Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Kerala and Assam. So far, 377 SEZs have been formally notified, of which 133 are in operation. SEZs have emerged as a major source for attracting investment and increasing exports in the country and Exports from these zones grew by 43.1 per cent during the 2010-11 fiscal. However, uncertainty over tax exemptions to new SEZs has led declining interest in the tax free enclaves. Investors are also cautious about the new draft Direct Taxes Code (DTC).
The top gainers on the BSE sectoral space were Capital Goods (CG) up 1.19%, Consumer Durables (CD) up 0.81%, Bankex up 0.57%, Oil & Gas up 0.20% and Healthcare (HC) up 0.19%.
On the flip side, FMCG down 0.94%, Realty down 0.58%, Public Sector Undertakings (PSU) down 0.37%, Metal down 0.08% and Auto down 0.06% were the major losers in the BSE sectoral space.
The S&P CNX Nifty touched high and low of 5422.60 and 5367.45, respectively.
The top gainers of the Nifty were Ambuja Cement up 4.62%, ACC up 2.87%, PNB up 2.49%, L&T up 2.30% and Sun Pharma up 2.02%.
On the flip side, DLF down 2.06%, Rel Infra down 2.02%, ITC down 1.81%, BPCL down 1.60% and GAIL down 1.59% were the major losers on the index.
European markets were trading in the green. France's CAC 40 increased 0.32%, Britain's FTSE 100 added 0.43%, and Germany's DAX jumped 0.72%.
Most of the Asian markets, barring Shanghai Composite closed in green on Tuesday; all the major markets were able to reverse their early losses and somberness which had gripped the markets since last session on concerns over China's economy and ongoing euro zone debt woes. The main recovery came as commodity prices advanced after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. suggested buying oil, copper and zinc. Korea Zinc surged 6.6 percent in Seoul, Jiangxi Copper advanced 1.4 percent in Hong Kong. Cnooc Ltd., China's biggest offshore oil producer, climbed 1.1 percent in Hong Kong.

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