Thursday, May 26, 2011

MARKETS HOLD ON TO THEIR GAINS

After rebounding from the two-month low levels, Indian frontline equity indices have held on to the initial gains and are showing a sideways kind of movement in the early noon session of trade. Though the indices have come off a little bit from the high point of the day after a government data showed that weekly food inflation accelerated to 8.55% for week ended May 14 against 7.47% in the previous week. However, investors at large are showing a matured behavior and have abstained from any kneejerk reaction to the weak inflation data. The better than expected earnings announcement by Tata Steel, the nation's biggest producer of the alloy, Coal India, the world's biggest producer of the fuel and Cairn India the energy explorer have gone down well with the local investors who commended the stocks' performance as they have surged over two percent points each. The bourses also got filliped after index heavyweight Reliance Industries jumped by over two percent on reports that government may allow RIL to charge market prices for natural gas sold to users other than fertilizer, power and for use in homes. Meanwhile, stocks of Subhash Chandra owned ZEE Entertainment zoomed by over two percent after the official announcement to form a 50:50 joint venture for distributing channels with Rupert Murdoch's Star India, 12 years after they parted ways. On the sectoral front metal, oil and gas and rate sensitive Banking indices are witnessing maximum buying interests while consumer durables and technology shares are seeing some selling pressure.
Leads from markets across the globe too remained encouraging as majority of Asian equity indices exhibited sanguine trends while the European counterparts too got off to an optimistic opening, capping the downside for the local bourses. Back home, the broader markets too traded in the positive terrain as the midcap index gained by 0.38% and the smallcap index climbed 0.76%. The market breadth on the BSE was in favor of advances in the ratio of 1471:958 while 127 scrips remained unchanged.
The BSE Sensex garnered 137.42 points or 0.77% at 17,984.66. The index touched a high and a low of 18,041.39 and 17,862.88 respectively.
The BSE Mid-cap index advanced 0.38% and Small-cap index climbed 0.76%.
On the BSE sectoral front, Metal up 1.74%, Oil & Gas up 1.66%, Bankex up 1.04%, PSU up 0.78% and CG up 0.66% remained the major gainers.
While, CD down 0.72%, IT down 0.15% and Teck down 0.03% were the only laggards in the BSE sectoral space.
The top gainers on the Sensex were Tata Steel up 2.58%, Sterlite Industries up 2.50%, RIL up 2.12%, Tata Motors up 2.05% and Hindalco up 1.93%.
On the flip side M&M down 1.42%, ITC down 0.66%, Infosys down 0.64%, BHEL down 0.34% and R Com down 0.31% were the major losers on the index.
In coming few years, though India may not be able to sustain its current growth because of high inflation, poor infrastructure, bad governance and volatile oil prices, however in long run Indian economy's prospect is very good, this was stated by the Standard Chartered Bank, who is quite optimistic on Indian economy in the long run and sees India as emerging a "Winner in the current global super cycle". However, it also pointed that country's reform agenda need to be sustained for achieving high growth.
In its Super-Cycle report Standard Chartered provides a complete picture of the Indian economy and gives a realistic view on challenges faced by the country, however it remains bullish and summing up as India as" tomorrow's story and today's opportunity". Further it says that the Asia's third largest economy is expected to become the world's third largest economy by 2030 after China and United States said the Standard Chartered Bank in its report. 
In report banks defines super-cycle as "a period of historically high global growth, lasting a generation or more, driven by increasing trade, high rates of investment, urbanization and technological innovation, characterized by the emergence of large, new economies." The first sequel of bank's study which got published last year indicated that there is a super cycle of growth that happens perhaps once in 50 years.
As per the report, currently the world economy is in its third cycle, which started in 2005 and will remain till 2030. The world economy witnessed its first economic super cycle during 1870 to 1913 which saw the emergence of US economy second super cycle from 1946 to 1973 saw the rise of Japan and East Asia. Now this third cycle is led by the China and India and other emerging economics and is witnessing the shifting of global power from West to East. The economists of the bank are bullish on the India growth story in the long run, though they also argue that challenges for India to achieve good growth numbers way ahead are centered around getting infrastructure (physical and education or skills) and regulatory environment in order. The biggest challenge is to provide job to India's growing young population for rapid growth and development. If nation is not able to provide employment to its young population, the demographic dividend may turn in demographic disaster. To avoid demographic disaster, India needs to transform its economy from agriculture to industrial economy. At present agriculture is the largest sector in term of providing employment. It provides employment to 52.1% of its labour force and contributes to 15-16% of GDP. To transform economy it is very important that India increase the share of manufacturing sector in GDP with increase capacity of employment generation.
India has an opportunity to regain its prominent position in the world economic order. Though the economy's success will depend on how it deals with some of its challenges over the next few decades. Also, there is a need for continued improvement in education, health care and skills as India provides the sizeable educated labour force needed for its private sector to grow, the report added. The S&P CNX Nifty amassed 37.55 points or 0.70% at 5,386.50. The index touched high and low of 5,406.55 and 5,356.35, respectively.
The top gainers on the Nifty were Sterlite up 2.56%, Tata Steel up 2.48%, Reliance up 2.17%, Tata Motors up 2.05% and Cairn up 2.04%.
On the other hand, M&M down 1.93%, BPCL down 1.28%, Ranbaxy down 1.16%, IDFC down 0.81% and Ambuja Cement down 0.80% were the major losers on the index.
On the Asian front, Shanghai Composite rose by 0.35%, Hang Seng added 0.53%, Jakarta Composite climbed 0.70%, KLSE Composite gained 0.51%, Nikkei 225 surged 1.48%, Straits Times up 0.13%, Seoul Composite zoomed 2.75% and Taiwan Weighted rose 0.70%.
The European markets have opened a positive note as the France's CAC 40 added 0.31%, Germany's DAX rose 0.46% and London's FTSE 100 gained 0.43%.

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