Tuesday, May 31, 2011

UPWARD JOURNEY

Indian equity indices continued their upward journey gaining more than one and quarter percent hovering at the highest point of the day as investors continued to pile up hefty positions across the board paying no heed towards problem lingering over Eurozone. Leads from markets across the globe too remained encouraging as majority of Asian equity indices exhibited optimistic trends on the back of robust better than expected economic reports while the European counterparts too got off to a sanguine opening, underpinning the sentiments of local investors. Back home, for the full fiscal year to March 2011 India's economy posted growth of 8.5%, a shade below the government's expectation of 8.6% expansion. But investors have gone on to look beyond the GDP numbers and have piled up hefty positions. GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in Q4 of 2010-11 is estimated at Rs 13,17,554 crore, as against  Rs. 12,22,573 crore in Q4 of 2009-10, showing a growth rate of 7.8% against 9.4% year on year and 8.3% quarter on quarter. The NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex were trading above their psychological 5,550 and 18,400 levels, respectively. The market breadth on the BSE was in favor of advances in the ratio of 1750:961 while 114 scrips remained unchanged.
Morever, the sectors which registered significant growth rates in Q4 of 2010-11 over Q4 of 2009-10 are  agriculture, forestry and fishing  which surged by 7.5% against 1.1% registered in the same period a year ago, electricity, gas and water supply up by 7.8% against 7.3% seen in Q4 2010. Other sectors which expanded at a good pace are construction at 8.2%, trade, hotels, transport and communication at 9.3%, and financing, insurance, real estate and business services at 9.0%.
The BSE Sensex surged 253.04 points or 1.39% at 18,485.10. The index touched a high and a low of 18,500.30 and 18,266.61 respectively.
The BSE Mid-cap index advanced 1.40% and Small-cap index climbed 0.90%.
On the BSE sectoral front, FMCG up 2.23%, Realty up 1.96%, Bankex up 1.82%, Healthcare up 1.63% and PSU up 1.51% remained the major gainers. While, there were no laggards in the BSE sectoral space. 
The top gainers on the Sensex were ITC up 3.14%, Reliance Infra up 2.69%, DLF up 2.64%, HDFC Bank up 2.52% and Jindal Steel up 2.49%. On the flip side Cipla down 0.96% was the only losers on the index.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh is quite optimistic on performance of Indian economy and has expressed confidence that his government will be able to achieve 8.5% growth during the current financial year. "As of now I have not seen any sign that we should change our view with regard to our ability to sustain a growth rate of 8.5%. I am confident that we will be able to sustain a growth rate of 8.5% this year," Dr. Manmohan Singh said.
PM is very positive despite the fact that Indian economy is facing some serious problems and in contrast to his confidence, the finance ministry is expected to revise its forecast for the present fiscal year due to high inflation, unstable crude oil price, slow investment and RBI's aggressive minatory policy stand. The Reserve Bank of India and other international bodies had already revised their forecast downward for India. RBI in its annual credit policy had revised its forecast for India's GDP growth to 8% from 8.6%. Similarly, IMF (International Monetary Fund) and World Bank had revised their forecast for Indian economy and expect that India's economy would grow around 8% and 9% respectively. 
With reference to country's agriculture situation and its impact on inflation, Dr. Singh said, "Whatever evidence we have, we expect a normal monsoon. And if the monsoon is normal, it will strengthen our ability to control food inflation." Normal monsoon will help to reduce food inflation by increasing agriculture productivity. Food inflation is serious concern for the Indian economy as it continues to remain more than 8% for last some time. The Wholesale price Index inflation was 8.66% in April, much higher than the central bank's comfort zone of 5-6%. 
On oil price scenario, PM Dr. Singh said, 'There are problems with regards to the burden of oil subsidies. They have to be tackled and all these issues will be claiming our attention in weeks and months to come'.
The S&P CNX Nifty jumped 83.70 points or 1.53% at 5,556.80. The index touched high and low of 5,560.25 and 5,489.70 respectively.
The top gainers on the Nifty were, Sun Pharma up 3.29%, ITC up 3.22%, HDFC Bank up 2.92%, JP Associates up 2.73% and ACC up 2.73%. On the other hand, Cipla down 1.20%, R Capital down 0.23% and SAIL down 0.07% were the only losers on the index.
On the Asian front, Shanghai Composite surged by 1.38%, Hang Seng soared 2.16%, Jakarta Composite added 0.22%, KLSE Composite climbed 1.00%, Nikkei 225 spurted 1.99%, Seoul Composite zoomed 2.32%, Straits Times up 0.63%, and Taiwan Weighted jumped 1.87%.
The European markets have opened a positive note as the France's CAC 40 added 1.48%, Germany's DAX rose 1.94% and London's FTSE gained 1.02%.

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