Monday, May 30, 2011

MARKETS NEUTRAL

Indian equity indices are wavering around the neutral line in an extremely narrow band in the Monday afternoon session of trade as investors looked to consolidate their positions after the sharp rally in the last couple of sessions. The positive opening for stocks in European markets and decline in international crude oil prices have helped the Indian frontline indices to claw back into the green terrain, paring all the earlier losses. Another positive for the markets was the early arrival of monsoon rains which prompted participants to speculate that farm output may increase and help cool food inflation. The hefty position build up in healthcare and high beta real estate names like Cipla and DLF too prevented the frontline indices from drifting into the red zone while counters like banking and metals contributed their bit in keeping the bourses afloat around previous closing levels. However, partial profit booking was evident in rate sensitive automobile pocket while stocks from oil and gas pack too were not spared either limiting the upside chances for the barometer indices. Index heavyweights like Reliance Industries and ONGC too failed to make their presence felt as they slipped by 0.24% and 1.24% respectively. Leads from the Asian markets remained lackluster as investors appeared oblivious about the market direction amid lack of any significant upside triggers across markets.
Back home, the broader markets showed some resilience as they outclassed their larger peers by quite a margin. The midcap index gained by 0.75% and the smallcap index climbed 0.66% points. The market breadth on the BSE was in favor of advances in the ratio of 1507:1018 while 106 scrips remained unchanged.
The BSE Sensex added 10.86 points or 0.06% at 18,276.96. The index touched a high and a low of 18,380.17 and 18,199.52 respectively.
The BSE Mid-cap index advanced 0.75% and Small-cap index climbed 0.66%.
On the BSE sectoral front, Healthcare up 2.27%, Consumer Durables up 1.43%, Realty up 1.16%, Bankex up 0.63% and Metal up 0.45% remained the major gainers.
While, Auto down 0.30%, Oil and Gas down 0.29%, Power down 0.12%, FMCG down 0.10% and Capital Goods down 0.05% were the only laggards in the BSE sectoral space.  The top gainers on the Sensex were Cipla up 3.10%, DLF up 2.11%, HDFC up 1.52%, Sterlite up 1.34% and JP Associates up 0.85%.
On the flip side Reliance Infra down 1.46%, ONGC down 1.24%, Tata Motors down 0.85%, Jindal Steel down 0.71% and ITC down 0.58% were the major losers on the index.
Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh is quite optimistic on performance of Indian economy and has expressed confidence that his government will be able to achieve 8.5% growth during the current financial year. "As of now I have not seen any sign that we should change our view with regard to our ability to sustain a growth rate of 8.5%. I am confident that we will be able to sustain a growth rate of 8.5% this year," Dr. Manmohan Singh said.
PM is very positive despite the fact that Indian economy is facing some serious problems and in contrast to his confidence, the finance ministry is expected to revise its forecast for the present fiscal year due to high inflation, unstable crude oil price, slow investment and RBI's aggressive minatory policy stand. The Reserve Bank of India and other international bodies had already revised their forecast downward for India. RBI in its annual credit policy had revised its forecast for India's GDP growth to 8% from 8.6%. Similarly, IMF (International Monetary Fund) and World Bank had revised their forecast for Indian economy and expect that India's economy would grow around 8% and 9% respectively. 
With reference to country's agriculture situation and its impact on inflation, Dr. Singh said, "Whatever evidence we have, we expect a normal monsoon. And if the monsoon is normal, it will strengthen our ability to control food inflation." Normal monsoon will help to reduce food inflation by increasing agriculture productivity. Food inflation is serious concern for the Indian economy as it continues to remain more than 8% for last some time. The Wholesale price Index inflation was 8.66% in April, much higher than the central bank's comfort zone of 5-6%. 
On oil price scenario, PM Dr. Singh said, 'There are problems with regards to the burden of oil subsidies. They have to be tackled and all these issues will be claiming our attention in weeks and months to come'. The S&P CNX Nifty rose 7.15 points or 0.13% at 5,483.25. The index touched high and low of 5,509.30 and 5,458.60, respectively.
The top gainers on the Nifty were Sun Pharma up 4.37%, Ranbaxy up 4.23%, Cipla up 3.15%, DLF up 2.26% and Dr Reddy up 1.76%.
On the other hand, Cairn down 2.42%, R Infra down 1.94%, ONGC down 1.29%, SAIL down 1.22% and Tata Motors down 0.93% were the major losers on the index.
On the Asian front, Shanghai Composite rose by 0.28%, Hang Seng added 0.35%, Straits Times up 0.53%, and Taiwan Weighted gained 0.16%.
On the flip side Jakarta Composite eased 0.16%, KLSE Composite slipped 0.21%, Nikkei 225 shed 0.18% and Seoul Composite declined 0.31%.
The European markets have opened a positive note as the France's CAC 40 added 0.17%, Germany's DAX rose 0.26%.
Stock markets in London remained closed on account of Memorial Day holiday.

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