Saturday, October 8, 2011

BULLS ARE BACK

Indian benchmark equity indices staged a blockbuster performance on the last day of the week by vehemently rallying close to a three percentage points in the session and re-conquering their psychological levels. The frontline indices took the quantum leap and halted the four successive session southbound journey but failed to completely regain the ground lost since the start of the week. Except for some mild profit taking in afternoon trades, Friday's session remained a day of recovery as key equity indices enthusiastically rallied through the day since investors largely focused on covering hefty short positions that got build this week amid easing Euro-zone worries. The concerns over the financial situation in Europe showed signs of easing after the European Central Bank announced various policy measures aimed at raising liquidity in European banks, including the offer to flood banks with any amount of one-year loans through 2013. Local sentiments also got buttressed by the extension of strong rally in global markets as Europe stepped up efforts to bolster its banks while jobless claims in the world's largest economy - the US, rose less than expected. However, the optimism over fresh liquidity measures from the ECB withered to some extent in noon trades on reports that global rating agency Moody's has downgraded the debt ratings of a dozen banks in United Kingdom because of doubts over the strength of the government's support. In addition, the rating firm also cut the credit ratings of nine Portuguese banks, due to concerns over the banks' increasing asset risk emanating from holdings of Portuguese government debt. Back home, India's weekly food inflation, measured by WPI, surged to 9.41% for the week ended September 24 from 9.13% in the last week however, the primary articles group which has the highest weightage in WPI, declined by 0.1 % to 202.4 (Provisional) from 202.7 (Provisional) for the previous week.
Earlier on Dalal Street, the benchmark got off to a boisterous start as the indices rebounded by over two and half a percent in the opening trades a day after Dussehra holiday, following the strong overnight rally on Wall Street since Europe stepped up efforts to bolster its banks and jobless claims rose less than expected. The key indices soon capitalized on the momentum and touched intraday highs in early morning session but the indices failed to hold onto the highs and receded to intraday lows in noon trades post weak European market opening and on reports of downgrade in British and Portuguese banks' ratings. Yet, final hour buying ensured that the key indices do not shut shops way below the intraday highs and snap the four session declining streak. Eventually the NSE's 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, convalesced by close to three percent to settle below the crucial 4,900 support level while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, Sensex accumulated close to four hundred and fifty points and closed below the psychological 16,250 mark. Moreover, the broader markets too participated in the rally and closed with gains of over a percent. On the BSE sectoral space, hefty buying was evident across the board as not even a single sectoral index went home in the negative territory. Investors piled up hefty positions in the beaten down Metal counter which rocketed by over five percent while the badly butchered Banking index too showed smart recovery and jumped by about four percent. While high beta sectors like - Realty, Consumer Durables and Capital Goods too soared in the session. The markets zoomed on good volumes of over Rs 1.13 lakh crore while the turnover for NSE F&O segment too remained on the higher side as compared to Wednesday at over 1 lakh core. The market breadth remained optimistic as there were 1802 shares on the gaining side against 984 shares on the losing side while 126 shares remained unchanged.
Finally, the BSE Sensex jumped 440.13 points or 2.79% to settle at 16,232.54, while the S&P CNX Nifty surged by 136.75 points or 2.88% to close at 4,888.05.
The BSE Sensex touched a high and a low of 16,347.48 and 16,148.97 respectively. The BSE Mid cap and Small cap index were up by 1.37% and 1.15% respectively.
The major gainers on the Sensex were Sterlite Industries up 8.56%, Jindal Steel up 8.22%, Tata Motors up 7.73%, ICICI Bank up 5.82% and DLF up 5.81%. While, Bharti Airtel down 3.34% and Hero Motocorp down 0.26% were the major losers on the index.
The top gainers in the BSE sectoral space was Metal up 5.39%, Bankex up 3.88%, Realty up 3.44%, Consumer Durables (CD) up 3.37% and Capital Goods (CG)  up 2.93%. However, there was no loser on BSE sectoral space.
Meanwhile, India's weekly food inflation, measured by the wholesale price index (WPI), surged to 9.41% for the week ended September 24 from 9.13% in the last week. This increase in weekly food inflation was on the back of increase in the prices of vegetables, cereals, rice and pulses. However, the index for Non-Food Articles declined to 10.77% for the week under observation compared to 12.89% in the last week.
According to the data released by Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the index for Food Articles group rose by 0.2% to 197.7 (Provisional) from 197.3 (Provisional) for the previous week due to higher prices of fish-inland (13%), gram (4%), ragi, egg, urad and condiments and spices (2% each) and masur, moong, arhar, fruits and vegetables, rice, pork and barley (1% each).  However, the prices of fish-marine (14%) and jowar, maize, tea, bajra and poultry chicken (1% each) declined.
The index for 'Non-Food Articles' group declined by 1.5% to 182.1 (Provisional) from 184.8  (Provisional) for the previous week due to lower prices of raw silk (6%), raw cotton and coir fibre (5% each), castor seed, safflower (kardi seed) and copra (3% each), flowers (2%) and sunflower, raw rubber and rape and mustard seed (1% each).  However, the prices of gingelly seed (3%), linseed (2%) and gaur seed, cotton seed and soyabean (1% each) moved up.
As a result, the index for primary articles group which has the highest weightage of 20.12% in WPI, declined by 0.1 % to 202.4 (Provisional) from 202.7 (Provisional) for the previous week. The annual rate of inflation, calculated on point to point basis, stood at 10.84 % (Provisional) for the week ended September 24 as compared to 11.43 % (Provisional) for the previous week.
Meanwhile, the index for Fuel and Power group which has a weightage of 14.91% in WPI remained unchanged at its previous week's level of 169.4 (Provisional). The annual rate of inflation, calculated on point to point basis, has also remained unchanged at its previous week's level of 14.69% (Provisional) for the week ended September 24.
The rising food inflation numbers, which is on its way to double digit mark, has raised concerns of government and industry. To bring inflation back to comfort zone, the government will have to reduce the supply side barriers as further hike in Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) key policy rates will adversely affect the economic growth. In last 18 months, to cap inflation, the RBI has increased its key policy rates by 12 times. However, despite the aggressive monetary policy standing adopted by the RBI, headline inflation has remained stubbornly high. For the month of August, it stood at 9.78% compare to 9.22% in July. 
The S&P CNX Nifty touched high and low of 4,922.60 and 4,861.20, respectively.
The top gainers on the Nifty were Sterlite Industries up 8.47%, Axis Bank up 8.41%, Jindal Steel up 7.70%, Tata Motors up 7.23% and Sesa Goa up 5.86%. On the flip side, Bharti Airtel down 3.46%, Ambuja Cement down 2.78%, Tata Power down 0.71%, Ranbaxy down 0.55% and Hero Motocorp down 0.21% were the top losers on the index.
The European markets were trading in red. France's CAC 40 lost 0.59%, Britain's FTSE down by 0.31%, and Germany's DAX declined by 0.20%.
All the Asian equity indices barring Jakarta Composite ended the session in the positive terrain on last trading day of the week as investors' sentiment boosted after central banks in Europe launched fresh measures to prevent another recession and keep the region's banking system liquid amid growing concern of the debt crisis worsening. The European Central Bank (ECB) said that it would buy an extra 40 billion Euros ($53.7 billion) of covered bonds from banks and would continue to provide unlimited three-month liquidity to the region's banks at least until July next year. Moreover, the Seoul and Hong Kong tapped one-week highs as marketmen bought beaten-down stocks. However, stock markets in China remained closed today for the trade in observance of Golden Week holiday.

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