Thursday, October 20, 2011

D-STREET IN RED

Indian frontline equity indices showed great resilience in Thursday's trading session and recovered a great deal from the lowest point of the session but failed to pare all the intraday losses by the end. The benchmarks trimmed their losses in late hours of trade on media reports that a guideline document said the European financial stability facility would be able to buy bonds on the secondary market. However, the key gauges still settled below the psychological 5,100 (Nifty) and 16,950 (Sensex) levels as market participants squared off hefty positions almost across the board as they continued to focus on inflation amid signs of slowdown in consumption and production indicators. The rate sensitive counters like Realty and Automobile which witnessed a sharp upmove on Wednesday, suffered severe pounding in the session after weekly inflation data showed that India's food inflation climbed to the highest level in almost six months, augmenting pressure on the RBI ahead of monetary policy review meet scheduled on October 25. Sentiments were also undermined by reports of differences in Germany and France over how to tackle Europe's debt crisis, while a disappointing Beige Book report by the Federal Reserve added to worries looming over the US economic outlook. The Asian peers too exhibited gloomy trends as major markets plunged by around two percent. On the domestic front, marketmen speculated that the RBI will extend its liquidity tightening measures and boost interest rates in order to rein in the mounting inflationary pressure on the economy. Meanwhile, C Rangarajan, the chairman of PMEAC opined that India's GDP will grow at a lower than forecasted 8% during the 2012 fiscal year, citing the towering inflation, slowing industrial output and global headwinds are slowing growth.
Earlier on Dalal Street, the benchmark got off to a gap down start as uncertainty over the future of Euro-zone debt crisis again came at the forefront of investors' concerns while the US economic slowdown fears too multiplied their worries. The key gauges continued to drift to lower levels through the morning session and found a bottom in early noon trades. The psychological 5,050 and 16,750 levels proved as firm supports for the frontline indices as they convalesced and almost halved their losses from those levels by the end. Eventually the NSE's 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, suffered a one percent laceration and settled below the crucial 5,100 support level while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index Sensex shaved-off close to one hundred fifty points and closed below the psychological 16,950 mark. Moreover, the broader markets too traded with a negative bias with cuts of around half a percent but managed to outperform their larger peers. On the BSE sectoral space, the rate sensitive Realty and Auto pockets bore the maximum brunt and got obliterated by 2.04% and 1.50% respectively while the Power and Capital Goods counters too witnessed hefty bouts of profit booking and dived by over a percent. On the flipside, the IT and TECk counters rebounded into the green zone by the end of trade and settled with gains of a quarter percent. The markets got dragged on large volumes of over Rs 1.7 lakh crore while the turnover for NSE F&O segment too remained on the higher side as compared to Wednesday at over 1.59 lakh core. The market breadth remained pessimistic as there were 1126 shares on the gaining side against 1664 shares on the losing side while 128 shares remained unchanged.
Finally, the BSE Sensex lost 148.45 points or 0.87% to settle at 16,936.89, while the S&P CNX Nifty declined by 47.25 points or 0.92% to close at 5,091.90.
The BSE Sensex touched a high and a low of 16,962.06 and 16,744.99 respectively. The BSE Mid cap and Small cap index was down by 0.66% and 0.47% respectively.
The major gainers on the Sensex were Tata Steel up 1.47%, Jindal Steel up 1.32%, Bharti Airtel up 1.29%, Sun Pharma up 1.26% and Maruti Suzuki up 0.97%. While, HDFC down 4.27%, Jaiprakash Associates down 3.49%, DLF down 3.34%, ICICI Bank down 2.89% and Tata Power down 2.59% were the major losers on the index.
The major gainers in the BSE sectoral space were TECk up 0.27% and IT up 0.23%, while Realty down 2.04%, Auto down 1.50%, Power down 1.34%, Capital Goods (CG) down 1.27% and Consumer Durables (CD) down 1.17% were top losers on BSE sectoral space.
Meanwhile, India's weekly food inflation measured by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) after a gap of a month-and-a-half is back in double digits at 10.60% for the week ended October 8, 2011 as compared to 9.32% in the previous week on the back of costlier vegetables, fruits, milk and protein-based items.
According to the data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the index for 'Food Articles' group rose by 0.4% to 200.3 (Provisional) from 199.5 for the previous week due to higher prices of poultry chicken (4%), bajra (2%) and fish-inland, masur, fruits and vegetables, urad and condiments and spices (1% each).  However, the prices of jowar and ragi (2% each) and barley, maize, fish-marine and moong (1% each) declined.
However, the index for 'Non-Food Articles' group has declined by 0.4% to 179.8 (Provisional) from 180.5  for the previous week due to lower prices of soyabean (7%), raw silk (6%), copra and sunflower (4% each), castor seed and groundnut seed (3% each), coir fibre (2%) and rape and mustard seed (1%).  However, the prices of flowers (20 %) and gaur seed (1%) moved up.
Meanwhile, the index for Primary Articles groups which account for 20.12% of the WPI rose by 0.2% to 203.8 (Provisional) from 203.4 for the previous week. The annual rate of inflation, calculated on point to point basis for this group, stood at 11.18% (Provisional) for the week ended October 8, 2011 as compared to 10.60% for the previous week ended on October 1, 2011.
The index for Fuel and Power group, which account for 14.91% of the WPI rose by 0.1% to 170.1 (Provisional) from 170.00 for the previous week due to higher prices of bitumen and furnace oil (1% each). The annual rate of inflation, calculated on point to point basis, stood at 15.17% (Provisional) for the week as compared to 15.10% in the previous week.
Food inflation rate, which rose to the highest level in almost six months, is likely to exert further pressure on the government and the Reserve Bank to tackle the situation expeditiously. 'Growth in Asia's third-largest economy will be slower than government projections', Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said, highlighting how high inflation, rising interest rates and global financial turbulence threaten India's growth momentum. Mukherjee also hinted that India may continue to tighten monetary policy, in contrast to most other major emerging economies, to keep stubbornly high inflation in check despite fears of a broader economic slowdown.
Thus with the hawkish language of finance minister coupled with the headline inflation hovering uncomfortably above 9% and food inflation entering into double digit for the week, RBI's move of hiking rate by another 25 bps in its upcoming monetary policy on October 25, 2011 would not come as a surprise to the street. The RBI has up till now already hiked interest rates by 12 times, by a total of 350 basis points, since March, 2010 in order to tame demand and curb inflation.
The S&P CNX Nifty touched high and low of 5,099.00 and 5,033.95, respectively.
The top gainers on the Nifty were Tata Steel up 1.46%, HCL Tech up 1.35%, Jindal Steel up 1.34%, Bharti Airtel up 1.08% and Maruti Suzuki up 0.98%. On the flip side, HDFC down 4.10%, IDFC down 3.95%, DLF down 3.80%, JP Associate down 3.63% and RPower down 2.96% were the top losers on the index.
The European markets were trading in red. France's CAC 40 lost 0.75%, Britain's FTSE 100 shaved off 0.42%, and Germany's DAX declined by 0.33%
All the Asian equity indices finished the day's trade in the negative terrain on Thursday as traders nervously awaited a weekend summit of European Union leaders, there were concerns that a plan to deal with the region's crisis would not be far-reaching enough. Meanwhile, Seoul Composite remained the top loser among the Asian peers and tumbled over two and a half percent on Thursday, pressured by foreign investor selling and falls in banks and shipyards including KB Financial Group and Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering. Moreover, Chinese Shanghai Composite ended with a cut of about two percent at a 31-month low in the trade, dragged down by steep losses in materials and energy stocks, while Hong Kong shares lost ground in the lowest turnover in a month as investors took profit in energy on declining physical commodity prices.

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