Monday, October 31, 2011

PROFIT BOOKING

The Indian equity markets continued trading weak on the back off consistent selling at some of the blue chip counters. The NSE Nifty continued to trade in a narrow range of 5,315-5,340, while 30-share BSE Sensex dropped 63 points. Earlier week benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex rallied more than 6% on a week-on-week basis therefore investors were booking some profits today. On sectoral front, banking, IT and realty stocks were in positive territory. Auto, metal and oil stocks were the biggest losers at this hour. Healthcare and consumer durables were also trading weak. Wipro was up 2.3% as it has announced that its standalone net profit rose to Rs 1050.60 crore in the quarter ended September 30, 2011, from Rs 1172.10 crore in the quarter ended September 30, 2010. On the global front, Asian markets continued trading lower. Back home, the market breadth favoring the positive trend; there were 1,339 shares on the gaining side against 1,128 shares on the losing side while 100 shares remained unchanged.
The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 17,741.09, down by 63.71 points or 0.36%.  The index has touched a high and low of 17,806.21 and 17,686.27 respectively. There were 11 stocks advancing against 19 declines on the index.
The broader indices kept outperforming benchmarks; the BSE Mid cap and Small cap indices were up by 0.35% and 0.36% respectively.
The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were, IT up by 0.81%, TECk up by 0.71%, Realty up by 0.38% and Bankex up by 0.17%. While, Auto down by 1.17%, Metal down by 1.07%, Oil & Gas down by 0.99%, HC down by 0.91% and CD down by 0.49% were the top losers on the index.
The top gainers on the Sensex were Wipro up by 2.32%, NTPC up by 1.32%, Infosys up by 1.06%, HDFC Bank up by 0.83% and Hero MotoCorp up by 0.63%.
On the flip side, Tata Motors down by 3.13%, Sterlite Industries down by 2.33%, M&M down by 1.87%, ONGC down by 1.84% and Jindal Steel down by 1.80% were the top losers on the Sensex.
Meanwhile, on the back of slowdown in the international economy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may have to further lower its growth projection for the current financial year. The Goldman Sachs, in its Asia Policy Watch said, 'our FY12 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast remains at 7% with downside risks and we think the RBI may need to still revise its growth forecasts downwards.'
The RBI in its second quarter monetary policy review, earlier last month, has downward its growth projection for the Indian economy to 7.6% from earlier projection of 8%. For this downward revision in growth projection, RBI made responsible to slower global growth and its adverse impact on domestic economy, especially on the industrial production, due to the increasing inter-linkages of the domestic economy with the global economy. 'While growth in advanced economies is already weakening, there is a risk of sharp deterioration if a credible solution to the euro area debt problem is not found,' RBI said.
In the first quarter of 2011-12, Indian economy grew by 7.7% compared to 8.8% in the same period of last year. During 2010-11, Indian economy had expanded by 8.5% and in 2009-10 it registered economic growth of 8%. Along with high inflation, the slowdown in project investments is also affecting the economic growth of India.
However, on the positive note, the Goldman report said that inflation in the country will moderate to 6% by March 2012, which is below the RBI projection of 7%. 'There is some comfort coming from de-seasonalized sequential quarterly WPI data which suggest that inflation momentum has turned down... The RBI's end-March WPI inflation forecast remains at 7%, while we think it could be lower at 6%,' it said.
Whereas, headline inflation measured by the WPI, for the month of September stood at 9.72% compared to 9.78% in August. The inflation of manufactured products, which account for more than 65% of the WPI, stood at 7.69% during the month compared to 7.79% in August. Despite, marginal decline, the headline inflation is still hovering near the two digit mark. 
In order to curb inflation, the RBI has hiked its short term lending and borrowing rates for 13 times since March 2010. 'We continue to think that with inflation and growth likely to surprise on the downside, the RBI will likely cut interest rates in April 2012, and we have built in 100 basis points in rate cuts in 2012-13,' Goldman added.
The S&P CNX Nifty is currently trading at 5,334.10, lower by 26.60 points or 0.50%. The index has touched a high and low of 5,360.25 and 5,316.95 respectively.  There were 15 stocks advancing against 35 declines on the index.
The top gainers of the Nifty were Wipro up by 2.05%, NTPC up by 1.37%, IDFC up by 1.36%, Sesa Goa up by 1.22% and Infosys up by 1.11%.
On the flip side, Tata Motors down by 3.48%, Ambuja Cement down by 2.90%, Sterlite Industries down by 2.30%, Ranbaxy down by 2.27% and M&M down by 2.01%, were the major losers on the index.
All the Asian counterparts were trading on the subdued note on Monday, Shanghai Composite declined by 0.42%, Hang Seng was down surrendered 1.42%, Jakarta Composite plunged 1.69%, KLSE Composite lost 0.27%, Nikkei 225 descended 0.60%%, Straits Times plummeted 1.17%, Seoul Composite lost 0.95% and Taiwan Weighted declined by 0.37%.

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