Friday, October 21, 2011

CAUTIOUS MARKETS

The Indian equity markets turn flat to positive after dipping into the red terrain in the initial trade. A bout of volatility was witnessed in the early trade as investors stayed cautious ahead of a meeting of European leaders to help resolve the region's debt crisis. The US markets closed mixed overnight, after finding some support in commitment by Germany and France to produce a comprehensive plan while, most of the Asian equity indices were trading in the negative terrain at this point of time. Back home, on the sectoral front capital goods witnessed the maximum gain in trade followed by consumer durables and auto while, realty, fast moving consumer goods and oil and gas remained the top losers on the BSE sectoral space. The broader indices were outperforming benchmarks. Meanwhile, PSU oil marketing companies viz. BPCL, HPCL and IOC all edged higher in the trade as the prime minister's top economic adviser C Rangarajan has said that the government will hike diesel prices once there is a substantial easing in inflationary pressure and expressed his optimism that inflation is likely to start easing in the coming months on the back of good monsoon and increased availability of food grains. The market breadth on the BSE was positive; there were 1,226 shares on the gaining side against 549 shares on the losing side while 64 shares remained unchanged.
The BSE Sensex opened at 16,975.79; about 40 points higher compared to its previous closing of 16,936.89, and has touched a high and a low of 16,987.94 and 16,873.99 respectively.
The index is currently trading at 16,965.33, up by 28.44 points or 0.17%. There were 18 stocks advancing against 12 declines on the index.
The overall market breadth has made a strong start with 66.67% stocks advancing against 29.85% declines. The broader indices were out performing benchmarks; the BSE Mid cap and Small cap indices rose 0.45% and 0.62% respectively.
The top gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were, CG up by 1.43%, CD up by 0.76%, Auto up by 0.73%, Metal up by 0.26% and Power was up by 0.24%. While, Realty down by 0.48%, FMCG down by 0.17%, Oil and Gas down by 0.11% and TECk down by 0.02% remained the only loser on the index.
The top gainers on the Sensex were Maruti Suzuki up by 2.62%, BHEL up by 1.76%, L&T up by 1.50%, Jaiprakash Associates up by 1.28% and SBI was up by 1.01%.
On the flip side, DLF was down by 1.90%, NTPC was down by 1.25%, Bharti Airtel was down by 0.82%, HUL was down by 0.81% and HDFC Bank was down by 0.61% were the top losers on the Sensex.
Meanwhile, though, the prices of crude oil has declined marginally in the recent past in the international markets, rupee, however, at the same time is depreciating against the US dollar since this September, making it difficult for the OMCs to cut prices of fuel products. The under-recovery or the revenue loss incurred by the OMCs in selling diesel, LPG and kerosene at controlled price is likely to be more than Rs 1,21,571 crore at an average crude oil price of $110 a barrel.
On this, Petroleum Minister S Jaipal Reddy said, even after the implementation of market determined pricing, the public sector OMCs have been making price revisions of petrol in a guarded manner, absorbing a part of the under-recovery themselves.' By adding further he said, the government was 'committed' to making available essential fuels, particularly cooking fuels to the common man at affordable prices. However, as a result, the oil marketing companies (OMCs) have been 'incurring huge under-recoveries on sale of diesel, domestic LPG and PDS kerosene.
Jaipal Reddy further said, the OMCs would be losing about Rs 67,000 crore in sale of diesel. Stating that 15% of the diesel consumption was for personal vehicles, he said his ministry felt that dual pricing was not a practical solution. On the other hand, the ministry suggested a higher duty on diesel cars. LPG subsidy would approximately amount to another Rs 25,000 crore during the year. It was a difficult political call to restrict the number of subsidized LPG cylinder, Reddy added.
Petroleum secretary G C Chaturvedi on the sidelines said the gross under-recovery was likely to be Rs 21,000 crore in the Q2 ended September 30, 2011. Of this, the ministry was seeking a reimbursement of Rs 14,250 crore from the government. 'Upstream companies for the time being will continue to share 33% of the subsidy burden'. In the April-June quarter, the gross under-recoveries stood at Rs 43,000 crore.
The finance ministry had indicated that Rs 15,000 crore would be given for the first quarter. The government has under projected its petroleum subsidy bill in the current fiscal year at Rs 23,640 crore. The sum has already exhausted in May by paying subsidy for the last fiscal year. With revenue under pressure and GDP growth expected to be lower than 9% estimated at the time of budget, any fresh provisioning for oil subsidy will hit the fiscal deficit target that had been set at 4.6% of the GDP.
The S&P CNX Nifty opened at 5,106.60; about 15 points higher compared to its previous closing of 5,091.90, and has touched a high and a low of 5,108.95 and 5,070.65 respectively.
The index is currently trading at 5,096.40, higher by 4.50 points or 0.09%. There were 29 stocks advancing against 21 declines on the index.
The top gainers of the Nifty were Maruti Suzuki up by 2.44%, BHEL up by 1.90%, L&T up by 1.57%, JP Associates up by 1.35% and Bajaj Auto up by 1.12%.
On the flip side, Cairn down by 2.27%, DLF down by 1.54%, NTPC down by 1.26%, GAIL down by 1.22% and Bharti Airtel down by 0.96%, were the major losers on the index.
Most of the Asian equity indices were trading in the red; Shanghai Composite was down 13.41 points or 0.58% to 2,317.96, Hang Seng was down 4.33 points or 0.02% to 17,978.77, Jakarta Composite was down 25.29 points or 0.70% to 3,597.49, KLSE Composite was down 1.08 points or 0.07% to 1,440.10, Nikkei 225 was down 5.08 points or 0.06% to 8,677.07 and Taiwan Weighted was down by 23.44 points or 0.32% to 7,220.88.
On the flip side, Straits Times was up 13.35 points or 0.50% to 2,707.36 and Seoul Composite was up by 17.17 points or 0.95% to 1,822.26.

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