Monday, October 3, 2011

OCTOBER STARTS ON DISTURBING NOTE

Indian benchmarks started the new month on a disturbing note as they went on to extend the declining streak for the second successive session as market participants resorted to hefty across the board position squaring. The frontline indices shaved off about two percentage points and breached 16,200 (Sensex) and 4,850 (Nifty) levels on the downside. Sentiments remained dismal as worries over global economic growth prospects prompted marketmen to take profits off the table amid little signs of supportive leads. Investors opted hefty risk aversion, stoking renewed fears that Greece is likely to default on its debt. Reports suggested that Greece failed to meet this year's deficit target of 7.8 percent, due to a deeper than expected recession and its deficit for 2011-2012 is expected to reach 8.5% of GDP, or $25.2 billion. The European stock markets got off to a gap down beginning and were trading with nasty cuts of over two percent while the Asian counterparts too settled on a bleak note with huge losses. On the domestic front, sentiments were undermined by the manufacturing PMI data which showed that India's manufacturing activity expanded at the slowest pace in two and a half years, in the month of September as the non-stop rate hike by Indian central bank since March 2010 hit the growth of new orders. Also India's trade deficit for August widened to $14.04 billion from last year's $10.09 billion as exports for the month surged 44.25% to $24.3 billion from a year earlier, while imports rose 41.82% to $38.4 billion for the same period. However, the recent sharp sell-off in international crude oil prices bode well for PSU oil upstream and downstream companies like ONGC, HPCL, BPCL, IOC etc as they surged in the rage of 1%-5.50%.
Earlier on Dalal Street, the benchmark began the October month on a somber note, investors largely remained influenced by the daunting sentiments prevailing in Asian markets. Thereafter, the key indices failed to show any kind of fervor due to lack of encouraging leads. The key gauges suffered a setback in afternoon trades as sudden bouts of profit booking emerged in the local markets immediately after a somber European market opening. Though the bourses recovered from the lows of the day but could not succeed in minimizing the huge losses by the end of trading session. Eventually the NSE's 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, took a cut of about two percent to settle below the crucial 4,850 support level while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, Sensex slipped by three hundred points and closed above the psychological 16,150 mark. Moreover, the broader markets too failed to show any kind of fervor and closed with losses of over one and half a percent. On the BSE sectoral space, the high beta - realty and Metal pockets remained among top laggards in the space as they got lacerated by over four percent while sectors like rate sensitive Bankex and Capital Goods too got pounded heavily in the session. Though there were no sectoral gainers in the space, however, Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group's stocks like Reliance Communications, Reliance Capital, R Power and Reliance Infrastructure climbed higher on short-covering after the recent brutal sell-off in those shares. The ADAG pack moved higher on reports that CBI has given a clean chit to ADA group chief Anil Ambani on charges that they held shares in firms linked to Swan Telecom. Also good monthly sales numbers from Automobile majors too helped the Auto index on the BSE to pare most of the losses and settle with moderate losses.  The markets got dragged on weaker volumes of over Rs 0.91 lakh crore while the turnover for NSE F&O segment too remained on the lower side as compared to Friday at over 0.81 lakh core as it was the second day of a new F&O series. The market breadth remained pessimistic as there were 876 shares on the gaining side against 1910 shares on the losing side while 108 shares remained unchanged.
Finally, the BSE Sensex shaved off 302.31 points or 1.84% to settle at 16,151.45, while the S&P CNX Nifty plunged by 93.75 points or 1.90% to close at 4,849.50.
The BSE Sensex touched a high and a low of 16,255.97 and 16,056.33 respectively. The BSE Mid cap and Small cap index were down by 1.90% and 1.48% respectively.
The major gainers on the Sensex were Coal India up 1.13%, ONGC up 1.07%, Hero Motocorp up 0.87%, Mahindra & Mahindra up 0.85% and Bharti Airtel up 0.65%. While, DLF down 7.82%, Jindal Steel down 6.02%, Hindalco Industries down 5.45%, Tata Steel down 4.95% and Sterlite Industries down 4.0301% were the top losers on the index.
All sectoral indices were in the red. However Realty down 4.59%, Metal down 4.00%. Bankex down 2.82%, Capital Goods (CG) down 2.52% and Consumer Durables (CD) down 1.63% were top losers on BSE sectoral space.
Meanwhile, manufacturing sector activity in India expanded at the slowest pace in two and half a year, in the month of September as the non-stop rate hike by Indian central bank since March 2010 has hit the growth of new orders. The HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index declined to 50.4 in September, from 52.6 in August. A number above 50 on the index signals expansion in the sector.
Leif Eskesen, economist at HSBC said, 'growth momentum in India's manufacturing sector eased further in September. This was driven by weaker orders, with export orders still contracting due to the weaker global economic conditions. While the persistent inflation pressures support RBI's tightening bias, the slowdown in manufacturing growth suggests that the end to the tightening cycle is at least now in sight, he added.
September's readings were the lowest for domestic manufacturing sector since March 2009. The growth rate in new orders in September slowed for the sixth consecutive month as deteriorating economic conditions on both sides of the Atlantic led to contraction in export orders.  With developed economies worryingly inching nearer to yet another recession, emerging markets like India and China which have been touted as the global growth engines are also facing the crunch.
Domestically, the input price inflation rate moderated since August to an 11-month low while charges increased at a marked rate that was broadly unchanged from the prior period. The inflationary pressures in the manufacturing sector continues to remain substantial despite the Reserve Bank of India's sustained monetary tightening measures to tame the rate of price rise. The central bank has raised its key lending rates 12 times since March 2010 and experts are of the belief that possibly only one or two rate hikes are left in RBI's arsenal.
The S&P CNX Nifty touched high and low of 4,879.15 and 4,823.90, respectively.
The top gainers on the Nifty were BPCL up 4.38%, Reliance Power up 2.02%, Reliance Capital up 2.01%, GAIL up 1.86%, and Cipla up 1.67%. On the flip side, DLF down 8.77%, Jindal Steel down 6.92%, Hindalco Industries down 5.59%, Tata Steel down 4.89% and SAIL down 4.69% were the top losers on the index.
The European markets were trading in red. France's CAC 40 lost 2.21%, Britain's FTSE declined by 1.64%, and Germany's DAX plunged by 2.18%.
All the Asian equity indices witnessed massacre in today's trade and ended the session with a huge cut on Monday as investors remained worried over growing concerns about a debt default in Greece, and its potential consequences for the Euro Area and for the global economy. Hong Kong shares tumbled over four per cent as foreign funds liquidated positions in mainland financials and property developers to boost cash levels in preparation for redemptions in their home countries. Moreover, Japanese Nikkei fell about two percent, with a government survey showing an improvement in business confidence among Japanese manufacturers doing little to nudge markets back to life. However, stock markets in China remained closed on Monday in observance of a public holiday and the country's markets will be shut throughout the week for holidays. Also South Korea's markets remained closed on account of a national holiday.

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