Monday, October 24, 2011

POSITIVE SENTIMENT

The penultimate day of October series futures and options contract expiry turned out to be a good session for the Indian frontline equity indices as they managed to settle with gains of around a percent after two previous disappointing sessions. Sentiments were buoyant in the first half after the European leaders' assurances of an upcoming rescue deal for the region's lingering debt problem. The weekend meeting of EU leaders resulted in "good progress", though not many concrete details were announced post the meet, investors remained optimistic that policy makers will announce significant measures on Wednesday to bolster the bailout fund and resolve Greece's debt crisis, while also supporting the region's banks. However, the optimism got tempered to some extent after FMCG bellwether ITC announced earnings which were in-line with Street's estimates. But the weaker than expected earnings announcement from Union Bank of India hit the morale of investors and led to a sell-off in banking counter. Apart from this on the global front, sentiments also petered out after European shares drifted into the red terrain post a positive opening. However, Asian peers settled with strong gains as indices in the region rallied in the range of 1-4% after robust Japanese exports data and encouraging Chinese PMI readings, together indicating that global economic outlook is not as bad as feared earlier. Back home, reports that India's exports from engineering sector registered a 14% decline in September on the back of slowdown in the US and European nations, weighed on Capital Goods stocks. Investors abstained from building fresh commitments ahead of the two keenly awaited events on Tuesday which are RBI's monetary policy review meet and October series futures and options contract expiry which too is scheduled on the same day because of two back to back public holidays on October 26 and 27 in observance of the Diwali - the festival of lights.
Earlier on Dalal Street, the benchmark got off to a rollicking opening as investors rejoiced after Euro-zone policy makers in their weekend meeting closed with concrete blueprint to rescue the region from debt trouble. The indices in no time climbed to intraday highs and traded around the psychological 17,100 (Sensex) and 5,150 (Nifty) levels through the morning trades. But the optimism soon started showing signs of easing in late hours of trade and profit booking in few sectors and drifting European markets weighed down the local bourses by the end of session. Eventually the NSE's 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, climbed by close to a percent and settled below the crucial 5,100 support level while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index Sensex amassed one hundred and fifty points and closed below the psychological 16,950 mark. Moreover, the broader markets succumbed to the selling pressure despite showing positive moves early on and settled with moderate cuts of around a quarter percent.  On the BSE sectoral space, the IT index soared by close to two percent being the top gainer, followed by the rate sensitive Automobile and Oil & Gas counters too gained good traction and went home with over one and half a percent gains.  Meanwhile, reports that the government may lift a ban on foreign airlines investing in the country's domestic carriers as they battle intense competition and high fuel costs underpinned domestic airline companies like Kingfisher, Jet Airways and Spice Jet which surged in the rage of 0.50% - 4%. On the flipside, the Capital Goods and Bankex sectors languished at the bottom of the table with losses of 1.78% and 0.38% respectively, being the only laggards in the space. The markets surged on large volumes of over Rs 1.6 lakh crore while the turnover for NSE F&O segment too remained on the higher side as compared to Friday at over 1.5 lakh core as it was the penultimate session of October series F&O contract settlement. The market breadth remained pessimistic as there were 1278 shares on the gaining side against 1528 shares on the losing side while 120 shares remained unchanged.
Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 153.64 points or 0.92% to settle at 16,939.28, while the S&P CNX Nifty advanced by 48.40 points or 0.96% to close at 5,098.35.
The BSE Sensex touched a high and a low of 17,104.88 and 16,898.60 respectively. The BSE Mid cap and Small cap index were down by 0.33% and 0.28% respectively.
The major gainers on the Sensex were Tata Motors up 4.44%, ONGC up 4.09%, Hindustan Unilever up 3.14%, Bajaj Auto up 3.12% and TCS up 2.97%. While, L&T down 3.11%, SBI down 2.11%, Coal India down 1.28%, Sun Pharm down 0.99% and HDFC Bank down 0.45% were the major losers on the index.
The major gainers on the BSE sectoral space were IT up 1.91%, Auto up 1.86%, Oil & Gas up 1.65%, TECk up 1.62% and FMCG up 1.36%. While Capital Goods (CG) down 1.78% and Bankex down 0.38% were top losers on BSE sectoral space.
Meanwhile, India's exports from engineering sector has registered a decline of 14% in the month of September on the back of slowdown in the US and European nations. As per the data of Engineering Export Promotion Council (EEPC), exports from engineering sector stood at $7.1 billion in September 2011 compared to $8.3 billion in September 2010.
In last financial year, the sector had contributed around $60 billion in the India's exports of $245.9 billion. In the current financial year, India's exports performance has been impressive. Despite the slowdown in US and decline in business confidence in European economy, country's exports during the first half of the current financial year surged by the 52% to $160 billion.
However, after several months of surge in exports from the sector, exports have declined in September because of the economic slowdown in the western markets. The engineering exports in April-August 2011 had surged by 125%, aggregating to $40 billion in the April-August 2011.
Market experts are of the view that the situation is not expected to improve in the coming months. The declining trend in exports may continue in the coming two quarters of 2011-12. The US and European markets together account for more than 40% of the country's engineering exports. Engineering exports include transport equipment, capital goods, other machinery/equipment and light engineering products like castings, forgings and fasteners.
Expressing concern over the adverse impact of global uncertainty on the Indian Economy, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee on October 22, said 'when the world sneezes, India runs risk of catching a cold...Not surprisingly, the economic crisis in Europe and the slowdown in the US are impacting us adversely.'
The S&P CNX Nifty touched high and low of 5,145.65 and 5,084.75, respectively.
The top gainers on the Nifty were Tata Motors up 4.91%, ONGC up 3.96%, RPower up 3.69%, HUL up 3.50% and Axis Bank up 3.31%. On the flip side, L&T down 2.94%, PNB down 1.96%, SBI down 1.91%, Sun Pharma down 1.82% and Coal India down 1.38% were the top losers on the index.
The European markets were trading in mixed. France's CAC 40 lost 0.30%, Britain's FTSE 100 up by 0.26%, and Germany's DAX advanced by 0.21%.
Asian pacific stocks after getting a strong start ended equally well comforted by a report that showed China's manufacturing may expand for the first time in four months amid signs stating that European leaders were days away from a plan to contain the euro-zone's debt crisis. German chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy said on Sunday that they would finalize a comprehensive response to the debt crisis by the end of the month, including a plan to make sure European banks have adequate capital. Asian stocks ended well for the second straight session underpinned by positive export figures from Japan that pointed a recovery from a devastating tsunami earlier this year, which besides fuelling a rally in Japan's Nikkei 225 index also buoyed the sentiment across the region. Japan's Finance Ministry said early on Monday that exports rose 2.4% in September compared with a year earlier, marking the second consecutive month of growth. The rise followed a five-month decline in the wake of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami that devastated northeast Japan.

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